Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which ones have simply been receiving too much or too little luck of late?

Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.

The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.

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Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates

Stats up to date through July 1, 2024

Players Due for Positive Regression

Marcus Semien (2B – TEX)

Semien ended June mired in a 1-for-26 slide. Going beyond that, he has picked up only five hits in 58 at-bats since June 16, slashing an ugly .086/.145/.121 with no home runs, four RBI, and two runs in the process.

It has obviously been a rough stretch for Semien, who finished third for the A.L. MVP award last season and has been an All-Star twice in the last three years. However, there are reasons to believe he will get things turned around. His long track record is one, of course, but his underlying metrics during this slump are also encouraging.

Semien’s .098 BABIP over these last 14 games is utterly egregious. His BABIP stood at .278 for the year before this span, and his career mark is .284. Granted, his 35.3 HardHit% could be better, but his 23.5 LD% and 83.6 Contact% should result in far more success. Semien has only struck out seven times in his last 62 plate appearances (11.3%). He makes for a strong “buy-low” target right now.

Yusei Kikuchi (SP – TOR)

Due to some recent struggles, Kikuchi’s ERA has ballooned up to 4.18 for the year. The lefty had back-to-back lackluster starts to end May and begin June. He then rebounded for a couple of solid victories, only to falter in each of the last three outings. Those came opposite potent offenses in the Yankees, Red Sox, and Guardians.

Overall, in those seven starts, Kikuchi labored to an alarming 7.12 ERA. However, a 3.50 xFIP suggests that he has been dealing with way more than his share of poor luck. He has been hit quite hard (49.5%) when giving up contact, but Kikuchi’s ability to miss bats is his calling card, and he has maintained that skill.

Over his last 30 1/3 innings, Kikuchi has racked up 32 punchouts (23.0%) while issuing just eight walks. His 70.9 Contact% and 78.4 Z-Contact% both rank among the league leaders during this span. Kikuchi should stabilize soon and get back to being a nice rotation piece for fantasy managers.

Players Due for Negative Regression

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B, 3B, SS, OF – TOR)

The Blue Jays have been getting exactly what they expected from Kiner-Falefa when the club signed him back in December. The super-utility man has skillfully manned second, short, and third, playing over 100 innings at all three positions so far this season. He has even appeared in center field once and on the mound twice. What most did not see coming was a potentially career-best year with the bat.

Kiner-Falefa’s steals are down, as he’s only swiped three bags in 82 games after averaging 19 over the last three years. However, his .292 AVG and .758 OPS would both be career highs, and he is just one homer shy of tying his career high in homers (8). His work at the plate during the second half of June was nothing short of ridiculous, as he put up a .404/.448/.596 slash line in 59 plate appearances over the final 15 games of the month.

The issues for Kiner-Falefa during that span begin with a .235 xBA. That is an immense discrepancy from his actual AVG. He has not drawn a walk since June 14, and his 34.8 HardHit% along with a 15.9 LD% inspires little confidence. Kiner-Falefa has been making a lot of contact (85.6%), but he has also been very lucky of late.

Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL)

How long can Lopez keep this up? The reliever-turned-starter has been one of the stories of the season, especially around Atlanta, as he is likely headed to his first All-Star selection. Lopez’s 1.70 ERA leads all MLB hurlers (min. 50 IP) by a wide margin. He has yet to give up more than three runs in any of his 14 starts this season while working at least five frames in 13 of them.

Lopez turned in an excellent 1.64 ERA over four June starts, but he walked a tightrope last time out (June 26) in St. Louis, managing to limit the Cardinals to two runs despite four hits and four walks through five frames. With a 28.1 LD% and 45.6 HardHit%, Lopez was fortunate to limit the opposition to a .229 AVG across 22.0 innings last month.

Lopez’s 3.45 xFIP for June was still solid, but there is definite room for negative regression. The Braves will also need to continue tightly managing his workload the rest of the way.

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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.