Corey Pieper | Tue, Jul 9th 2024, 7:22am EDT

10 Burning Questions: Aaron Civale, Jared Jones, Trea Turner (Fantasy Baseball)

Can you believe next week is already the All-Star break? It seems like just yesterday everyone was waking up early to watch baseball in Korea. When it comes to the All-Star break, if you’re playing in a weekly league, make sure to check your league settings. Some leagues will play next week as a full week even though it is only three days of games.

Others will roll it over with the following week. It is important to know which because it can drastically affect the value of pitchers. But that is next week. Below you will find this week’s edition of the 10 Burning Questions for fantasy baseball including injury updates and possible mid-season breakouts.

10 Burning Questions

What do we make of Aaron Civale going to Milwaukee?

Injuries have devastated the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation. In their quest to find more starting pitchers to maintain their National League Central lead, the Brewers traded with the Tampa Bay Rays for starting pitcher Aaron Civale. It’s been a struggle this season for Civale, but the Brewers are optimistic they can help him with a turnaround.

Civale made his Brewers’ debut on Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The home run issues that plagued him with the Rays were evident initially. Civale surrendered four earned runs which came via three home runs. He did pitch five innings and struck out eight batters. In his first start, nothing changed with his move to the National League. He has to cut down on the home runs to have the breakout many expected coming into this season.

How concerning is Jared Jones‘ injury?

Any injury is concerning, but the good news is Jared Jones’ injury wasn’t directly connected to his arm. Instead, he suffered what has since been identified as a Grade 2 lat strain. The lat is the muscle that runs from your upper back to the top of your shoulder.

Pirates manager Derek Shelton indicated he would be shut down from all throwing for the next two weeks. That doesn’t mean he will be back in two weeks. Even without a setback, he will need to ramp back up. As impressive as the 22-year-old has been with his 3.56 ERA, the team would always manage his innings. This injury is a way to slow his pace down.

Has Trea Turner found his power stroke?

Trea Turner missed about six weeks with a hamstring injury. Hitting for batting average hasn’t been a problem all season. He is currently hitting .335. The power stroke, though, was lacking until the start of July.

At the end of June, Turner had made 205 plate appearances. He had just three home runs. In July, he made 26 plate appearances. He already has four home runs this month. You didn’t select Turner for his power contributions, but we’ve seen him get to the mid-20s in home runs before. Even with the missed time, an average exit velocity of over 90 miles per hour (MPH) shows Turner can still reach that range.

How do the Twins replace Royce Lewis this time?

The injuries to Royce Lewis just keep mounting. He made it a month this time before the injury bug bit him. The latest injury is a right adductor strain, which, thankfully, does not sound as serious as some of his other injuries.

To fill his absence, the Minnesota Twins recalled one of their top prospects Brooks Lee. This season in the minor leagues, Lee was hitting .350. He also had seven home runs and two stolen bases. Since joining the Twins, he is 9-19 and has a hit in every game. He hit his first home run of his major league career over the weekend. He has primarily played third base since joining the Twins but has also played second base and shortstop in the minor leagues, so there is a way this can all fit together even when Lewis returns. Lee doesn’t have the loudest fantasy tools but should be on a fantasy roster.

Should we be concerned about Gerrit Cole?

Fantasy managers patiently waited for Gerrit Cole to return from his injury. When he was healthy, he was supposed to come back and provide first-round value. That hasn’t happened through his first four starts.

Cole has a 1-1 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. He has 19 strikeouts to eight walks. The biggest fear managers have is that he was never actually healthy and will return to the injured list (IL) soon. That’s possible as his velocity is down over two MPH from last season. That could also be explained by him still ramping up after the injury. It’s probably best to sit him on your bench until he shows signs of a turnaround.

Can I spite drop Cade Povich?

This question was sent to me by a friend following Cade Povich’s disastrous start on Saturday. Considering the league he was discussing was a dynasty league, I advised him against it. However, starting Povich has been a truly devastating start to your ratios.

The difficult part of this start was that if you were rostering Povich, this start against Oakland’s bottom-three offense was one place you were willing to start him. One inning later, he had allowed eight earned runs and eight baserunners. For now, the Orioles continue to keep him in the rotation. Even so, in a redraft league, he hasn’t shown enough to keep him on your bench if there is an interesting waiver wire option.

Could this be the long-awaited breakout of Jarred Kelenic?

Don’t look now but Jarred Kelenic is batting a career-high .272. With 10 home runs already, he is also pacing toward a new career mark in that category as well. Having seen nearly 1,000 plate appearances before this from him, fantasy managers have to determine what has changed.

The disappointing answer is that not much has seemed to change for him. He is striking out slightly less, but it’s still nearly 30% of the time. His average is being boosted by a .358 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is surprising when you consider he has traded groundballs for fly balls. The increase in fly balls would help to explain the boost in home runs but logically should mean a decrease in batting average. With his recent run, you may think Kelenic is finally delivering on his former top-prospect pedigree. While the home runs look real, the average will likely drop.

Can Jose Miranda maintain a near .300 batting average?

What a truly incredible week Jose Miranda had. At one point, he had hits in 12 straight at-bats. At the end of June, he was batting .297. With his incredible week, he increased his average to .331. He doesn’t have quite enough plate appearances to qualify, otherwise, he would be second in baseball in batting average behind only Steven Kwan.

Miranda’s profile shows the high batting average is not a fluke. He is striking out only 13.3% of the time, which is in the top 10th percentile in baseball. That helps him to have an expected batting average of .291. His batted ball profile is reminiscent of what Alec Bohm offers. Bohm has parlayed that into starting the All-Star game for the National League. While Miranda isn’t in the All-Star game, what he has done for average so far this season looks repeatable the rest of the way.

Is Colt Keith turning around his season?

Rookies having initial struggles and then delivering on their promise looks to be a trend this season. Jackson Chourio, Wyatt Langford and Colt Keith are all examples. Just under a month ago on June 12th, Keith’s slash line was .215/.267/.277. Now, it sits at .244/.291/.363.

When examining Keith’s seasonal batted ball profile from when he was struggling as compared to the turnaround period the past month, a few curiosities arise. He is striking out slightly more (19.3% as opposed to 18.4%) and walking less (3.6% as opposed to 6.3%). That’s typically not a way to see your batting average and on-base percentage (OBP) rise, but he has a .345 BABIP in that period.

What is helping him is that he is now hitting the ball to all fields better. Through June 12th, he was pulling the ball 38.7% of the time and only going to the opposite field 24.9% of the time. Since June 13th, those numbers are a 30.9% pull rate and 33.3% to the opposite field.

Is Yariel Rodriguez a must-add?

Calling someone a must-add means they need to be owned even in 10-team leagues. Yariel Rodriguez isn’t there, but the last two starts he has made certainly make you take notice.

Because of a spinal injury, Rodriguez has only made seven starts in his rookie season. His two in July have been his most impressive. Both have been quality starts. In total, he has pitched 12.2 innings with only three hits allowed, one earned run allowed and 12 strikeouts. While he was able to go six innings in each of those starts, he still only threw 82 and 83 pitches. That means he is going to have to continue to be incredibly efficient to pitch deep enough into games to earn wins. Perhaps that’s what we will get. Speculating on Rodriguez is fine, but he isn’t a must-add yet.

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