If you asked me last year to write a “do not draft” list for tight ends, my answer would’ve been just about everyone but Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle.
Tight end was on the verge of becoming a completely obsolete position in fantasy football because it felt like there was no middle class. You either reached for studs like the guys named above or were dumpster diving at the tail end of drafts.
2023 was an interesting year for tight ends. Kelce began the year injured and was grossly disappointing, finishing as the TE3 while burning anyone who spent a second-round pick on him. Andrews started hot but was lost for the year. But as the stalwarts struggled, a few new names emerged, such as Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride.
The bar was extremely low, but last season may have indicated some hope at tight end in the form of new blood. That being said, there are still plenty of guys I’m avoiding in drafts due to either their talent, looming statistical regression, average draft position (ADP) or a combination of all of these factors.
Here is my do-not draft list at tight end in 2024.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
2024 Do Not Draft List: Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (TE – LV)
Don’t be blinded by the success of LaPorta and Kincaid in their rookie seasons. Typically, tight ends tend to have the toughest transition from college football to the NFL. I suspect LaPorta and Kincaid’s success could drive Bowers’ ADP up as the summer goes on.
It’s fair to point out that Bowers was more highly regarded as a prospect than either LaPorta or Kincaid. But he also enters a far worse situation. LaPorta slotted nicely into a strong Lions offense led by a solid QB in Jared Goff. Kincaid had the pleasure of landing with Josh Allen in a Buffalo offense with plenty of other weapons.
While Bowers does join a pretty solid receiving group in Las Vegas headlined by Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, he also will be catching passes from either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison.
Of course, this is tight end we’re talking about. So I’ll never be too upset with someone throwing a late-round dart on a talented rookie over more known commodities like Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert. But history and the quarterback situation are not on Bowers’ side.
Dalton Kincaid (TE- BUF)
I realize I just included Kincaid in my new wave of young tight end talent, and his talent was certainly on display during his rookie year. The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis open the door to a larger target share, and he could see some positive touchdown regression after scoring just twice on 91 total targets and nine red zone targets.
So, why is he on this list? While it wasn’t an easy decision, there are a few reasons why I’d prefer to pass on Kincaid at his current cost in drafts (51st overall).
First, I get the feeling Buffalo may undergo a minor identity change offensively. Josh Allen is still the focal point, but we saw the Bills offense become more balanced after Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. Dorsey was fired on November 14 after Buffalo’s Primetime loss to Denver.
From that point on, Buffalo ran the ball on 52.9% of its snaps in its ensuing seven games, going 6-1. In the previous 10 games under Dorsey, the Bills ran the ball on just 42.1% of their plays. The NFL is still a passing predominant league, and I don’t see the Bills turning to a ground-and-pound approach with Allen under center. But you combine Brady’s play-calling tendencies with the departures of their top two receivers, and the writing is on the wall for the potential for fewer pass attempts, which could have a trickle-down effect on Kincaid’s volume.
The other reason is that Kincaid was at his best when fellow tight end Dawson Knox wasn’t on the field. Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets, 6.2 catches, and 56.2 receiving yards per game, with Knox sidelined and scoring both of his touchdowns during that span. With Knox back, Kincaid averaged just 4.9 targets, 3.8 catches and 35.6 receiving yards per game.
If Knox’s draft price drops toward Round 6 or later, I’d be far more interested in adding him. But to take him at the beginning of Round 5 feels expensive, even if the arrow is pointing up. Kincaid fits into that tight end middle class that I tend to avoid, and the opportunity cost of taking him over a second starting receiver or running back feels too steep.
More Players to Avoid
- DBro’s Players to Avoid (Premium)
- Erickson’s Players to Avoid: QB | RB | TE
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