Ok, let’s start with a confession.
Maybe the first four words of this article’s headline are a slight exaggeration. Because in fantasy football, I don’t fully subscribe to binary absolute statements like “Do Not Draft,” or “You Must Draft.” Every team and draft is different. What makes value such a fascinating (and maybe overused) concept in our game is that it is 100% subjective. A player I want no part of could be a coveted asset for someone else.
But we also have to draw a line in the sand somewhere, otherwise, my only advice for you would be “do what you think feels best,” which is the biggest cop-out imaginable.
So for all intents and purposes, here are the quarterbacks who I’m telling you to stay away from in your drafts this summer. Here’s my do not draft list for the quarterback position in fantasy football this season.
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Fantasy Football Do Not Draft List
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
We begin our list by betting against the QB2 in 2023. What can go wrong? At a position like quarterback, where most leagues only start one player, it’ll be hard to pass up Jalen Hurts if he drops into the fourth or fifth round. But I won’t be taking him at his current average draft position (ADP) of 25th overall.
Hurts is as electric of a fantasy asset as you can ask for. And the tush push was practically a cheat code for anyone who had him a season ago. While his 15 rushing touchdowns (the most ever for a QB in a single season) were wonderful, they represented 24.1% of his fantasy scoring a season ago, which feels unsustainable.
Hurts’ record-setting scoring also masked the fact his passing efficiency dropped in the back-end of the season, which coincided with Philadelphia’s collapse as a team. His passing yards per game dropped by almost 20 yards compared to the 2022 season, and his adjusted net yards per pass attempt decreased from 7.31 to 5.96 yards.
So, on the surface, Hurts had a fantasy tremendous year. But the passing numbers show an underlying concern. Hurts still has to develop from a progressions and field reading standpoint.
I’m also not here to tell you the tush push is going away completely. But with Saquon Barkley in town, we could see some of Hurts’ rushing touchdowns go to him. And I truly think Philadelphia is going to be smarter when it comes to preserving their franchise quarterback, who was hampered by nagging injuries at various points in the season. And again, 15 rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is insane.
When you take a quarterback this high in drafts, you need him to be sensational to overcome the value you’re passing on at more scarce positions like running back and receiver. A healthy Hurts is a safe bet to finish as a top-five QB in fantasy, but he may need to show more strides as a passer to reach last season’s numbers.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
I’ve been a Herbert backer since he entered the NFL and am strapped to him in a complex dynasty league I’m in. But sadly, things have taken a brutal turn for the QB2 in 2021. And 2024 could be his roughest year yet from a fantasy perspective.
By now you know the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh as their head coach, who reunited with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator. And anyone who watched Michigan during their National Championship season knows Harbaugh fully embraced a smash-mouth identity that occasionally made it seem like we were watching a game from 30 years ago. The Wolverines even won a road game against Penn State in which J.J. McCarthy, who was a first-round pick in this year’s draft, threw just eight passes.
Despite Harbaugh’s desire to set the game back in 1985, we have to be careful when it comes to overreacting to his preferred style of play. Yes, the Chargers will probably run the ball more than they did last season (39% of their plays). But keep in mind that even the heaviest rushing team in the league last year (Baltimore) only ran the ball on 49.9% of their snaps. So when people say they expect the Chargers to be “run heavy,” remember that still means they’ll probably throw the ball half of the time.
That said, Herbert is coming off an injury-shortened year in which he set career-lows in touchdowns, yards per game and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. It’s also worth mentioning that in all of Roman’s 10 years as a play-caller, he’s only coached one offense that finished higher than 28th in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yards.
And to top it off, the Chargers gutted his entire weaponry. Gone are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Left are Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston and rookie Ladd McConkey.
Most players are likely only considering Herbert in deeper formats or 2-QB leagues. And while I don’t think Los Angeles’ offense will be terrible, I just don’t see a ton of weekly upside for Herbert.
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
Should Jared Goff be drafted as a QB1? That’s currently where he’s being taken, according to ADP. I don’t know if I’m going out on a limb or stating the obvious by fading him.
Now to be fair, Goff is the QB14 in our expert consensus rankings (ECR). So I’m mainly reacting to ADP data that will become more irrelevant as the summer goes on. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Goff turned out to be the most popular choice for players who decide to wait on QB. Lions sentiment is sky-high and who wouldn’t want to get a piece of the man orchestrating this offense?
That’s all well and good, but keep in mind Goff ranked 15th in fantasy points per game and put up seven games with 15 points or fewer despite the ascension of the Lions’ offense.
I also suspect we’ll see opposing defenses adjust to Detroit’s offense, with the main adjustment being clogging up the short and intermediate areas of the field while daring Goff to beat them with deep throws. Goff is a relatively risk-averse passer and I’m not 100% sold on Jameson Williams being the consistent downfield threat this offense needs to reach an elite level. Goff is also a quarterback capable of crumbling under pressure, which means Detroit’s offensive line will need to remain elite and intact.
Goff is someone I’m more willing to take if I go quarterback by committee, slotting him in the most advantageous matchups. But he’s not someone I’m drafting as my starter unless I’m desperate.
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