We’ve all heard the talking point: “John Doe is in a contract year. He’s going to set the world on fire.”
Your favorite pick of 2024 could be in a contract year. How should you feel about that? Should you reach for him more than you would have, otherwise? Maybe you’re in the last year of your fantasy football manager contract. Should you play it safe? Maybe I’m in a contract year. Should you keep reading?
Let’s find out what to do about contract years in fantasy football 2024.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
How to Handle Players in Contract Years
Contract-Year Players: 2021-2024
Before getting into 2024’s contract-year players, let’s take a look at the last three years and see if we can spot a trend. We’re going to compare where contract-year players were ranked each preseason and compare how they ended the respective years.
Points Scored vs. Expectation Breakdown: 2021-2023
For this chart, I included players with a preseason average draft position (ADP) of 200 or better. A simple linear regression model for each position determined the expected points scored for the season based on ADP, which I then compared to actual points scored for the year.
To add a few extra layers of resolution to the data, I also broke out the players based on early-round/late-round draft status (pick 48 being the cutoff for early rounds) and age (young = under 30). This is the data for just the contract-year players:
| Group | Players Reviewed | Avg. Difference |
| QB: OLD, LATE-ROUND | 5 | -58.7 |
| QB: YOUNG, LATE-ROUND | 4 | -2.8 |
| RB: OLD, EARLY-ROUND | 1 | 40.5 |
| RB: OLD, LATE-ROUND | 8 | -30.6 |
| RB: YOUNG, EARLY-ROUND | 8 | -3.2 |
| RB: YOUNG, LATE-ROUND | 35 | 12.0 |
| TE: OLD, LATE-ROUND | 5 | 5.0 |
| TE: YOUNG, LATE-ROUND | 22 | 6.9 |
| WR: OLD, LATE-ROUND | 8 | 27.4 |
| WR: YOUNG, EARLY-ROUND | 9 | -4.7 |
| WR: YOUNG, LATE-ROUND | 26 | -2.7 |
A few observations after digging into the data:
- The old/late-round QBs in contract years had a rough go of it. Even if you throw out Ryan Fitzpatrick’s one-game season in 2021 with Washington.
- The only QB to “hit” on a contract year was Daniel Jones in 2022. Ben Roethlisberger in 2021 and Tom Brady in 2022 outperformed total scores, but the bar was low for each.
- Derrick Henry was barely over the “old” marker in 2023 (turned 30 on Jan 4, 2024). If you lump him in with the young, early-round RBs then they perform right at the expected rate.
- The only “old” RB to outscore projections at all was Raheem Mostert in 2023. If you recall, Mostert took a few years before he even started getting RB usage in the NFL, so he was young for an old guy.
- There were some big contract years in the late-round, young RBs (most notably Josh Jacobs in 2022) as well as some busts. The standard deviation of points vs. expectation for that group was 23% higher than it was for late-round non-contract players.
- Mark Andrews had such a great year in 2021 that it more than doubled the tight end number (combined 6.5 above expectation with Andrews; would be only 3.0 above without him).
- Mike Evans was the latest over-30 WR to have a big contract year. He was also the only one projected to go before round eight.
Here are my takes on each position. It’s important to log there before you start looking at the 2024 data.
- Quarterbacks: If a player is in a contract year, there’s a good chance he’s either old (and might get hurt/be limited) or the team will want to see his potential replacement in action (such as Will Levis). Be wary.
- Running Backs: If you want to take a gamble, young late-round RBs in contract years appear to be a direction to head in. They’re a bigger dice roll than regular RBs.
- Wide Receivers: There is a bit of a trend for older WRs outperforming very low expectations in contract years. Not a huge trend, just a bit of one.
- Tight Ends: Get Mark Andrews when he needs some extra cash.
Contract-Year Players: 2024
I don’t believe the risks for the older contract-year QBs apply to Dak Prescott. Barring an absolute disaster season, the Cowboys are unlikely to want to “see what they’ve got” in Cooper Rush or Trey Lance. If you think he can stay healthy, I would draft him where you normally would.
I would put Tua Tagovailoa in the same category as Prescott, take him where you normally would. If you find yourself drafting Jacoby Brissett, however, take your already shaky situation and shake it a bit more.
If you want to take a gamble on RBs this year, you have a lot of candidates in the pool of contract-year players. Javonte Williams enters the year as a starter and is your most likely target. (Rhamondre Stevenson was considered but he recently signed a contract extension.) Still, keep an eye on some of the backups: Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins and AJ Dillon could show out if they get the requisite volume to do so.
The older contract-year WRs being drafted super late are tough to come by. Many older WRs are either valued highly (Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper) or are completely off the board (Odell Beckham). The players in the sweet spot could be DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks. They are in the best position to outscore their ADP with a full season as the reliable veteran target in their respective schemes.
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