Which players should you take another chance on in 2024? Here are a few fantasy football bounce-back candidates that we’re targeting in upcoming drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Running Back Candidates
The running back position, known for its unpredictability, is a tough nut to crack. Years of data reveal bust rates among the projected top 10 players often soar to nearly 50% each season — a statistic even the most seasoned analysts and experts find hard to ignore.
Struggles along the offensive line, split backfields and brutal contact are just a few variables that can disrupt rankings. However, this also means a fair number of potential fantasy football bounce-back candidates will emerge. Below are two that stand out to me that I’ll look to target in 2024.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Rhamondre Stevenson entered 2023 with high expectations, coming from a solid sophomore year when he finished as the overall RB10 in fantasy. Unfortunately, for those who took a chance on his services, Stevenson was greatly disappointing, finishing as the RB27 in fantasy points per game during the 12 contests he participated in. Uncharacteristically, Stevenson could not generate missed tackles or break away from contact through the season’s first eight weeks.
Per my colleague Derek Brown, Stevenson ranked 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt early on. Defensive pressure remained high on him throughout games due to New England’s anemic passing offense and a carousel of ineptitude under center. The Patriots finished 29th in passing yards last year with a paltry 3,392 and ranked as a bottom-three team in passer rating at 73.8%. Simply put, there was no reason for defenses not to load the box against New England.
Now fully recovered from a high-ankle sprain that forced him to miss the final five games of the regular season, Stevenson will look to turn things around. The Patriots made a sizeable financial commitment to him in the offseason, inking Stevenson to a four-year, $36 million extension in late June. That suggests the team views him as a cornerstone building block for the near future and places him in the driver’s seat as the unquestioned starter.
Furthermore, New England didn’t bring in a player to contend with his early-down and goal-line work. Instead, they chose to sign pass-catching specialist Antonio Gibson, formerly of the Commanders. His presence is merely meant to give Stevenson a breather when necessary, not usurp him.
The Patriots were able to keep arguably the top offensive lineman in free agency at home, signing Mike Onwenu to a three-year deal. They addressed holes by signing Chukwuma Okorafor at tackle and Nick Leverett at guard (the latter as an insurance policy for Cole Strange). They also spent a high third-round pick on Penn State tackle Caedan Wallace, who should push for meaningful snaps immediately.
New England spent their top draft selection on quarterback Drake Maye, who will be eased into the offense under the tutelage of mentor Jacoby Brissett. Additionally, they bolstered their anemic receiver core by signing K.J. Osborn in free agency and drafting Ja’Lynn Polk from the University of Washington. Once Maye replaces Brissett, defenses won’t be able to hone in on the running game every down. Stevenson is currently the 19th-ranked RB according to FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) and could provide a massive return on investment for those willing to take the chance.
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
If you look up any “2023 Fantasy Football Busts” article, chances are you’ll find Tony Pollard’s picture as a highlight. Last season was set up perfectly for Pollard to finish within the top five at the position, and he was drafted accordingly. With Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture, a bevy of receivers to take defensive pressure away and little competition behind him, Pollard should have excelled. Instead, he could not convert a much larger workload (he ranked seventh in snap share and second in red-zone touches at the position) into success and finished as the RB15.
His struggles can be partially attributed to a Grade 3 high-ankle sprain injury he sustained in January before the season started, which required a TightRope procedure. Early on, he wasn’t his usual explosive self — he ranked 44th in yards per touch at the position before Week 11 and failed to score a rushing touchdown from Weeks 2-10. Rostering Pollard was an exercise in madness, especially around the goal line, where there seemed to be an invisible force field. Thankfully, he appeared to turn things around in the final eight games, but many fantasy managers will tell you it was too little too late.
Unimpressed with what they saw on the field, Dallas let Pollard walk in free agency. Tennessee pounced at the opportunity to add him. In an apparent attempt to fill the gaping void Derrick Henry left behind, Tennessee inked Pollard to a three-year, $24 million deal, creating a committee situation with assumed incumbent Tyjae Spears.
Many will see the presence of Spears as a severe detriment to Pollard’s 2024 outlook, but I view his presence as a boon. Taking a slight decrease in overall touches and providing Pollard with an occasional breather creates a situation similar to what fantasy managers saw in the Carolina Panthers days of old, with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Both Pollard and Spears are capable receivers and have largely interchangeable skills, but the financial commitment the team made suggests Pollard will be on the majority end of the split.
In Tennessee, Pollard will field snaps behind a stout offensive line and an ascending quarterback in Will Levis. There remains enough talent at receiver, with DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Treylon Burks, to siphon defensive attention away and not allow an excess of players to be within the box. Essentially, this should be viewed as hitting the refresh button, calling a mulligan or being afforded a do-over. I’m feeling gracious enough to give Pollard another chance to get back in my good graces.
More Bounce-Backs & Breakouts
- 3 Breakout & Bounceback Candidates
- Quarterback Bounce-Back Candidates
- Wide Receiver Bounce-Back Candidates
- Second-Year Breakout Candidates | Regression Candidates
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