The 2024 MLB Draft is officially in the books. For dynasty fantasy managers, it presents an exciting time of the year to either start drafting or start prepping for 2025 first-year player drafts. Things will change once we start seeing some of these prospects get into minor league games, but this is my first set of FYPD ranks post-draft. Instead of using strict numbers, we are going to use a tiered approach. I put them in alphabetical order in the tiers, so just FYI where they are in the tier is not their exact range. Let’s get to it. Here are my five tiers for FYPD drafts in 2025.
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MLB First-Year Player Draft Rankings for 2025
TIER 1
I have flipped on this one a few times. The game changer for me was once I got my hands on some of Bazzana’s college data. The 28 home runs and 16 stolen bases spoke for themself, but a 41% barrel percentage, 96% AVG EV to establish his hit tool, and low chase and strikeout rates to create a higher floor put me over the top. He’s be a base threat as well, so for the five-tools, he is my top dog. Condon will come in as many number one’s due to the Colorado landing spot. He is a prolific power hitter, and Coors Field will only raise that up. There is some chase/swing and miss issues, but he was one of the best high-velo fastball hitters in college. He isn’t a big speed threat, so you might be chasing four tools. If the average struggles, it could be three elite tools. It will be hard to go wrong with either of these two.
TIER 2
Jac gets his own tier. Like Condon, this is silly power. It was with metal bats, but he put up a 121 MAX EV in college this year, which is a crazy number. This is a weird one, as he has more concerning chase issues than Condon, but had one of the lowest strikeout rates in college last year. That was due to his next-level power and one of the best zone-contact rates. Pretty much, if the ball was in the zone, he was getting his bat on it. The elephant in the room was him being announced as a two-way player. Will he get a shot? The announcement of that makes me believe they’ll entertain it at least. I think it is more likely we will see a lower batting average than Condon, thus moving him down a tier. Don’t be surprised though, when Cags puts up a 40 home run season.
TIER 3
It’s weird to have two different positions in this spot, but this represents the last upper(ish) tier hitter and the top pitcher in the class. Burns has an elite fastball/slider combo. He had a ridiculous 17.9 K/9 this past season, and even with some command questions, is an easy bet for me. The Dylan Cease fastball/comp makes a lot of sense to me, even in a less-than-friendly ballpark. Wetherholt almost went number one. His power projection might be a question, but he has an advanced hit-tool. It’s doubles power to all-fields. He had a 96 AVG EV, which even with metal bats, might bring more power than is expected. He doesn’t strike out a lot either and could be a sneaky pick in the mid-rounds.
TIER 4
- Braden Montgomery (OF – BOS )
- Bryce Rainer (SS – DET )
- Christian Moore (2B – LAA )
- Hagen Smith (SP – CHW )
- Konnor Griffin (SS – PIT )
- Nick Kurtz (1B – OAK )
This is our first big tier. Bryce Rainer is one of my personal favorites. He’s a big 6’4 shortstop, that has Corey Seager vibes. Montgomery might have the biggest power. Moore is the most well-rounded, and someone I think may continue to move up boards as the year goes on. Hagan Smith might be a question for some, as many have Hagan over Burns. He’s kind of a two-pitch pitcher, who did a lot of work with guys missing in the zone. He has some Strider-like vibes from the left side, but I like Burns stuff better. Griffin has huge upside if the bat comes along. He stole 87 bases in high school this year. Kurt was a surprise pick but led D1 baseball in walks and has plus power.
TIER 5
- Cam Caminiti (SP – ATL)
- Cam Smith (3B – CHC )
- James Tibbs (OF – SF )
- Seaver King (SS – WAS )
- Slade Caldwell (OF – AZ )
- Trey Yesavage (SP – TOR )
The gaps between these tiers get bigger and bigger. There is still some great upside here, but it feels very different than Tier 4. Caminiti could do what Noble Meyer did and fly up boards. He had a .90 ERA and a 9-0 record in high school and is the best high school arm out of this class. Cam Smith might be the biggest sleeper here. He’s a really solid athletic first baseman with power. Tibbs probably has the best bat of this group, but lacks some athleticism. He might be a league-average guy. Seaver King is athletic, has tons of speed, and can play around the field.
The question will be, will the power develop at all? He has the least power projection probably of any player yet. Slade Caldwell was a personal favorite before being drafted by the Dbacks. He’s a strong, but shorter left-handed outfielder. He’s still developing that bat, but he has tremendous bat speed and will be a stolen base threat. He has received a lot of Carroll comps coming in, but he is a bigger guy already. Trey Yesavage has three plus pitches, one of which is a great splitter. He could be a guy fighting for a rotation spot late next season.
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