The talent pool at wide receiver is vast. There’s not a shortage of high-quality options throughout fantasy football drafts. However, a pair of wideouts stand out as ill-advised picks at their respective average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR formats.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receivers To Avoid at ADP
Jordan Addison (MIN – WR): 83.7 ADP/WR40
Jordan Addison had a productive fantasy campaign in his rookie season. He was the WR21 in half-PPR points (186.3) and the WR27 in half-PPR points per game (11.0) among wideouts with a minimum of 10 games played last year. Usually, a second-year wide receiver coming off a low-end WR2, high-end WR3 season would be someone to get excited about in fantasy football.
Unfortunately, Addison’s underlying data wasn’t as impressive as his fantasy finish. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Addison was tied for 53rd in their receiving grade (69.7) and 55th in yards per route run (1.50 Y/RR) among 96 wide receivers with at least 40 targets, including the postseason. Per Fantasy Life, Addison was tied for 52nd in targets per route run rate (17 TPRR%) among 93 wide receivers with at least 300 routes in 2023.
Addison’s fantasy value was buoyed by 10 receiving touchdowns. According to PFF, Addison had 7.8 expected touchdowns last season. Hayden Wink’s methodology was even less kind, crediting Addison with only 5.8 expected touchdowns.
The rookie wideout also benefited from Justin Jefferson‘s injury last year. In the nine games when Jefferson had over a 70% snap share (Weeks 1-5 and Weeks 15-18), Addison had a 68.6 PFF receiving grade, 16.1 TPRR%, 1.50 Y/RR, 33 receptions (3.7 per game), 447 receiving yards (49.7 per game) and six receiving touchdowns. Jefferson is a target hog, and even with T.J. Hockenson likely to miss a substantial period to begin the year, Addison’s outlook isn’t as bright in his sophomore season. Unless Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy outplay their expectations, Addison’s floor and ceiling are too low to justify using a top-100 pick on him in managed leagues.
Romeo Doubs (GB – WR): 121.3 ADP/WR53
Romeo Doubs had a stellar showing in two games in the playoffs last year, erupting for six receptions for 151 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round and recording four receptions for 83 yards against the 49ers in the Divisional Round. They were his highest and third-highest receiving yardage outputs in 19 games last year. It’s in the range of outcomes for Doubs to build on his playoff performances. Yet, the Gabe Davis hype after his outburst against the Chiefs in the playoffs after the 2021 season should serve as a reminder of the pitfalls of overrating one or two games.
Doubs is part of a talented and deep group of young pass-catching weapons on the Packers. Moreover, his best work hasn’t stacked up against his fellow young wideouts. The following table has the receiving stats for Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton.
Doubs's highest PFF receiving grade, yards per route run and targets per route run rate were worse than Watson's best marks, and Doubs's best season for PFF receiving grade and yards per route run were worse than Reed's and Wicks's marks as rookies and Melton's in his limited playing time in 2023 after not playing for the Seahawks as a rookie in 2022. In short, Doubs's best work through his two seasons in the NFL wasn't on par with the others in the receiving corps. He's not a bad player, but his leash might be short, with more efficient youngsters nipping at his heels or already ahead of him in the passing-game hierarchy. Furthermore, as a player with a sub-20 TPRR% and a deep average depth of target (aDOT) in a probable wide receiver rotation, Doubs's weekly floor is low. His profile is better in best ball, albeit he's an unexciting selection there as well.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
