Tom Strachan | Sun, Jun 30th 2024, 6:12am EDT

Wide Receiver Heavy Draft Strategy: Does it Work? (2024 Fantasy Football)

Year to year we see massive fluctuations in what works and doesn’t work within fantasy football. As the NFL constantly evolves through different offensive and defensive cycles certain position groups thrive while others experience drops in production. In recent years the running back position has been devalued by both the NFL and fantasy managers, but was a wide receiver-heavy strategy effective in 2023?

Was WR Heavy Draft Strategy Effective in 2023?

Early Round Strategy

Normally the thesis behind starting a draft wide receiver heavy is that running backs get injured at a higher rate than wide receivers and that data plays out more often than not.

In 2023, though, it wasn’t a bad year for the early running backs, with Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard all staying healthy. They just largely disappointed outside of McCaffrey, but it was a softer blow to take with Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp all missing time, too. Only one running back in the first two rounds, McCaffrey, scored over 15.0 half-PPR points per game (PPG), while six receivers in this area did the same.

How to Attack the RB position

With a Zero RB or Hero RB strategy, we’re starting the draft with no more than one running back in the first two rounds and then stocking up on wide receivers with elite upside. While running backs later on can’t compete with the likes of McCaffrey, they tend to be stronger bets than later-round wide receivers, who even if they’re on the field, won’t see close to as many touches as a late-round running back if the runway is clear for them.

In PPR formats over the last six years, the majority of the top 30 point scorers per game have been wide receivers every year.

The area to attack running backs starts from pick 73 onwards or the beginning of round seven.

In 2021, picks 73-150 served up 16 different running backs, the RB29 to RB44. A massive 56.2% of these backs outperformed their positional average draft position (ADP) by five spots or more, compared to only five who failed to be within five spots of where they were drafted.

We got RB5 (Leonard Fournette), RB7 (James Conner), RB20 (Melvin Gordon), RB21 (AJ Dillon) and RB23 (Devin Singletary) among others.

In 2022, as wide receiver thirst kicked into full effect on Underdog and filtered down to redraft leagues, the RB24 now appeared in this range. All together, there were 26 different backs here, RB24 to RB49. With this increase in numbers, there was a dip in hit rate, but 42.3% still finished five or more spots above their positional ADP. Including nine of the first 15 drafted in this range.

Then in 2023, with even more backs in this range, 28 in total, RB23 to RB50, the hit rate stayed consistent with 42.8%, a slight increase from 2022’s 42.3%.

Again though, the top end of this was lucrative with six of the first eight outperforming their positional ADP by at least five spots. It makes sense we want to be taking shots at this area for running backs, so starting wide receiver heavy will allow for this.

Running Backs Traits to Target

Of course drafting running backs in this area of the draft isn’t foolproof but there are some ways we can help ourselves by targeting certain types of running backs.

Ambiguous Backfields: In 2023, taking shots at Miami’s backfield proved to be a very profitable venture, as did pickups including Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary and Gus Edwards.
Pass-Catchers: Even in half-PPR scoring, pass-catching RBs without a three-down role can have spike weeks that help the position stay serviceable while your WRs dominate.
Play For Good Teams: It feels a little obvious to say, but good teams tend to score more points, and we want exposure to those points.
Ability to Become a Workhorse in the Event of Injury: Players like Chuba Hubbard, Kyren Williams and Zamir White were all running backs who could provide standalone value but could become top-12 options should the backs ahead of them suffer an injury or pick up a suspension. Players like Gus Edwards, who don’t catch passes, have a smaller shot at greatness unless they get into the end zone a lot.
Rookies: Taking shots at rookies can be tricky, but it can also lead to a high upside, particularly as the season goes on. Jonathon Brooks and Trey Benson stand out as worthwhile targets in 2024.

Wide Receiver Success

When it comes to fantasy football we want both massive scores and high floors. At the wide receiver position, 20+ point games in full PPR settings can be true difference-makers and help you win your matchups.

In 2023, there were 184 20+ point games from wide receivers, 58 more than the running back position provided. Of these 184 games, 121 (65.7%) came from wide receivers drafted within the first 72 picks, with 44% of them coming from players selected in the first three rounds. At running back, only 33% of the 20+ point games came from players selected inside the first three rounds.

2024 Implementation

If you’re just arriving into the fantasy football mindset for 2024 you might be a little surprised to see only 14 running backs drafted in the first 50 picks, compared to 26 wide receivers. After a highly successful year for wide receiver-heavy approaches, drafters aren’t letting themselves get caught empty-handed at the position this year. The best two approaches are to either go Hero RB (one running back in the first two rounds, then no more till round six and later) or Zero RB (no RB before round six).

2023 was the second year in a row Zero RB teams won big on Underdog, with both the regular season prize of $500,000 and the grand prize of $3,000,000 won by Zero RB teams a year after a Zero RB team took down the 2022 regular season prize as well. That’s $4.5 million in prize money to Zero RB teams in just one contest over the last two years. Add to this that the DraftKings Milly Maker team that won it all in 2023 didn’t select their first RB until round five. Zero RB works.

Spend some time using our mock draft simulator to get comfortable with how a Zero RB or Hero RB approach might work best in 2024.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL