Joe Pepe | Wed, Jun 26th 2024, 7:13am EDT

6 Snap Count Regression Candidates (2024 Fantasy Football)

The offseason is a time of significant changes in the NFL. With the NFL draft concluded and the majority of free agency in the rearview, we can now turn our attention to the horizon and anticipate the implications of these changes on fantasy football in 2024. Today, our focus is on the players who may experience a snap count regression due to introducing new players, a shift in offensive strategies and other factors that could influence their playing time.

Snap Count Regression Candidates

A snap count regression implies a player will spend less time on the field, and it’s crucial to remember that the greatest ability is availability. As fantasy football enthusiasts, we rely on these players to have the opportunity to run routes and receive carries, as this can significantly impact our team’s performance. Let’s begin with Raheem Mostert, a player whose potential snap count regression is a cause for concern.

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)

This offense is predicated on speed, which is Raheem Mostert’s most significant asset when he is on the field. The issue for Mostert is that his entire backfield leans on their speed to win in situational football. Raheem Mostert doesn’t deal with just one player stealing his time this year, but two. The Dolphins have drafted speedsters De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright in back-to-back NFL drafts. In most of 2023, Mostert averaged 50-70% of the snaps in the backfield. However, he dealt with a less-than-50 % snap share in three of his final five games.

Raheem Mostert is 32 – ancient for a running back. Father Time is catching up with him and the Dolphins have been adding new cars into the garage. His running mate, Achane, should become the lead back in the snap count by mid-season, considering he could produce RB1 numbers on a 40-50% snap count. An NFL team would be bonkers to avoid trying and elevating the number of opportunities a home run hitter like Achane would see.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Josh Jacobs received a hefty contract from the Green Bay Packers, so you would expect him to own this backfield. Well, not so fast. The Packers have a history of using multiple backs even when there should be a clear favorite. We remember the “Free Aaron Jones” days, right? On top of the scheme, the Packers brought back AJ Dillon in free agency while drafting exciting rookie MarShawn Lloyd. We finish this concoction by sprinkling on the fact Jacobs was one of the least efficient runners in 2023, and we have an issue brewing for the Green Bay Packers’ new star running back.

Jacobs will face the most demanding strength of schedule for a running back this season. With their slew of options in the backfield, don’t be surprised if the once-workhorse running back dips under his typical 70% snap share in games. To keep this 26-year-old running back healthy and utilize their other piece, Jacobs may drop to a 60% snap share this season, cutting his chances to help our fantasy football team significantly.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)

Rhamondre Stevenson was granted a hefty contract recently but could still be facing snap count regression in the mirror every week. Last season, Stevenson had nine games of 60% snap share or higher. That was with a roster that didn’t have any competition. However, in 2024, Antonio Gibson has entered the fold, and his pass-catching ability could cut down the chances for Stevenson to make a massive impact. Stevenson will still be the lead back in New England, except with a smaller share of the pie.

Michael Mayer (TE – LV)

Michael Mayer is a talented tight end in his own right. However, the Raiders drafted Brock Bowers this year in the NFL draft. With Bowers entering the fold, Mayer should begin to see less than the 80%+ snap share that he saw between Weeks 8-14. The good news for Mayer is that he is on a run-heavy offense and a ferocious blocker who is “out for blood” in the run game. He should still spend time on the field, but look for his number in the 55-65% range in 2024.

Gus Edwards (RB – LAC)

Gus Edwards wasn’t a snap-count king in Baltimore. Now, he enters a run-heavy scheme that looks fantastic for his chances on paper. He should play, but they will need to protect him at his age to help him survive the NFL season’s rigors. He must also face off for snaps against old teammate J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal. Vidal is a young running back who ranked first in rushing attempts, rushing yards and missed tackles forced in his 2024 draft class. Reports out of camp is he is also handling pass blocking with relative ease as Chargers GM Joe Hortiz said ” When you watch him block, it’s impressive.” Don’t be surprised if Gus Edwards doesn’t skyrocket as most people believe he will in 2024.

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)

Romeo Doubs, unfortunately, stares snap count regression in the eye due to the talent of the Green Bay Packers. Their wide receiver core is five players deep, including Christian Watson, Doubs himself, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and even Bo Melton. The Packers also have two strong tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. They filled their backfield with Josh Jacobs, rookie Marshawn Lloyd and AJ Dillon to complete their talented team. Doubs could be the odd man out with the rise of the younger talent and the entrance of highly paid running back Josh Jacobs. Doubs had a 75% snap count in 14 games this season; with all this talent in Green Bay, multiple formations could leave Doubs off the field, even as one of their primary outside wide receivers. Be cautious and tread lightly with Romeo Doubs at his average draft position (ADP) of 122.

Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and consider the changes in the situations around the NFL to understand snap count regression truly. If you need more help with your rosters or have a question about snap share regression, don’t hesitate to contact me on X at Jpep20. Good luck this offseason.

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