It’s crucial not to fall into the trap of being ‘that guy’ who shows up unprepared for their fantasy football draft, relying solely on the default rankings. This approach can lead to severe pitfalls, such as drafting a player several rounds too early when comparable options could be acquired much later. The consequences of such a mistake can be significant, potentially impacting your team’s performance throughout the season. Take it seriously and do your research to avoid these costly mistakes.
Thanks to the rise of spread offenses that avoid funneling targets to a select few options, fantasy managers have more choices than ever to select from. This shift in dynamics has transformed previously barren positions that were top-heavy (looking at you, tight ends and quarterbacks) into several tiers of viable options ripe for the picking. This rise of viability for tertiary options shakes up the rankings, so it is essential to understand where value can be acquired in drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- More Site-Specific Player Fades: ESPN | Fantrax | NFFC | FFPC | MFL
Sifting through default rankings can be arduous, but have no fear, I’ve done the grunt work for you. Similar to the series I wrote earlier when I pointed out draft values on ESPN and overvalued players to avoid in ESPN leagues, I examined the existing rankings of RealTime Fantasy Sports (RTS), a popular provider that fans use for their football leagues.
Comparing their PPR rankings to our expert consensus rankings (ECR) led to some interesting findings, most notably regarding the running back and wide receiver positions. Unlike ESPN, who dramatically pushed down quarterbacks and favored the incoming rookies, RTS generally ranked signal-callers in similar tiers to ECR but hand-picked several players dramatically ahead of their current average draft position (ADP).
Below are a few options I feel are best left avoided, given their current cost on RTS.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): ECR – 100 Overall | RTS – 77 Overall
When measuring athletes based on purely physical traits, it would be hard to besmirch Justin Herbert. He has the prototypical quarterback build with a howitzer for an arm and modest rushing upside. That said, his current situation in Los Angeles screams regression, and a sixth-round cost is too rich for our liking.
When on the field in 2023, Herbert performed as a low-end QB1 before suffering a broken index finger on his throwing hand in Week 14 that cost him the remainder of the season. Now fully healed, Herbert will enter 2024 with all his top options (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett) departing for greener pastures under a new head coach (Jim Harbaugh) known for his run-heavy offensive schemes.
Herbert will wish upon a star that his receiving core matures quickly to aid his fantasy point totals. Fourth-year pro Joshua Palmer has occasionally flashed when given an opportunity but is more of a complimentary piece than a focal point. Quentin Johnston, the Chargers’ first-round selection in 2023, finished with a 38/431/2 split and was disappointing when on the field. Everett’s absence has left the tight end room with journeymen Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. Yeesh.
Rookies Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice will be asked to be significant contributors early, with McConkey taking over Allen’s short-yardage plays as a route-running specialist. I believe he can be a difference-maker when the ball is thrown in his direction, but look for this team to transform into more of a bruising style under offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
James Cook (RB – BUF): ECR – 42 Overall | RTS – 25 Overall
Premium picks made within the first few rounds can set the tone for your team, so it is essential to nail the player and the value. RTS has James Cook ranked as their RB11, with ECR having him slightly behind at RB14.
There is reason for optimism with Cook, especially considering what managers saw after Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in Week 11. His style promotes a more balanced approach, which led to a direct increase in total snaps and touches for Cook. Despite the team putting the ball in his hands more frequently, Cook was still relegated to a committee situation and only took the field for more than 60% of the snaps twice down the stretch. Additionally, he had to contend with Josh Allen “stealing” rushing attempts within the 10-yard line, capping his overall upside due to a lack of touchdowns.
The Bills selected early-down bruiser Ray Davis from Kentucky in the draft, who will immediately slide in as the RB2 for the team. Davis has a well-rounded skillset that will sap away short-yardage situations from Cook, further dampening his projections.
Currently, we have Cook projected for around 209 fantasy points in 2024. The expectation is that his rushing totals will slightly diminish in favor of increased work within the passing game as an outlet for Allen. Last year, Cook scored 232 points and finished as the overall RB11 in PPR formats, so our initial thoughts have him as an upside RB2 rather than a set-it-and-forget-it RB1.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE): ECR – 65 Overall | RTS – 43 Overall
New England made it a point to re-sign their core of talent this offseason and awarded Rhamondre Stevenson with a four-year extension worth $36 million in mid-June. That sort of financial commitment seems rather egregious, considering Stevenson’s lack of production in his short career. Since entering the league in 2021, he has missed 10 games due to injury and has eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark just once.
After finishing as the RB10 in 2022, Stevenson was a massive disappointment last year and failed to run with the same reckless abandon he demonstrated previously. Unable to shed tackles or make defenders miss, Stevenson plummeted into a timeshare situation with the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott before sustaining a high ankle sprain in Week 13 and missing the remainder of the year.
His contract status leads one to assume he is yet again the RB1 for New England. Still, Stevenson will need to cede third-down work to Antonio Gibson, while adjusting to a brand-new scheme under offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
Projecting Stevenson for a bounce-back year is well within the realm of reason, provided he can stay on the field. ECR factors in his injury history and middling reception totals, but it seems RTS is hopeful he can return to his 2022 totals. Tread lightly.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN): ECR – 106 Overall | RTS – 82 Overall
Following the departure of Derrick Henry to Baltimore in free agency, it seemed Tennessee had finally paved the way for his heir apparent to ascend to the throne. It turns out that what the team envisioned compared to fantasy managers was different.
Instead, the Titans curiously chose to sign Tony Pollard in early March. Bringing in another player in the backfield wasn’t the eyebrow-raising part — it was signing one with a nearly identical skillset to Spears that had analysts questioning the rationale. Why not bring in another bruiser instead and allow Spears to continue catching check-down passes and making defenders miss in space? Pollard is hardly known as a thumper and was coming off of a disappointing 2023 campaign with Dallas when he appeared to be a shell of himself after an early-season injury.
Regardless, Tennessee’s financial commitment to Pollard suggests he will be the team’s lead back in 2024, with Spears providing complimentary aid when called upon. From a pure talent perspective, Spears is the more dynamic runner out of the backfield — he ranked fifth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact (YAC) behind a sieve offensive line when plays were often scripted to help then-rookie quarterback Will Levis.
Spears has the talent to push Pollard for snaps, but RTS’ ranking suggests they anticipate more of a 50/50 split in total touches than the rest of us. Any possible upside is baked into that ranking, which makes it difficult for him to provide a return on investment within the middle rounds of drafts.
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