High-stakes fantasy football has seen tremendous growth over the years. What was once considered a high-roller exclusive has now drawn the interest of fantasy football, DFS and gambling enthusiasts alike. Since 2004, the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) has been at the forefront of that conversation. Below we look at some overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on NFFC based on average draft position (ADP).
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU): ADP 29.07 | ECR 37
After an offseason trade to Houston, wide receiver Stefon Diggs has become one of the most polarizing players in early fantasy football drafts. Despite being valued at No. 37 overall in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), Diggs has an ADP of 29.07 in NFFC drafts over the past month.
Whether you’re over or under on his ADP could depend on which player you think shows up in Houston. Will it be the Diggs that produced in the first half of last season or the one that faltered down the stretch? Even during Diggs’ good stretch, he didn’t showcase the same long speed and explosion as in previous seasons. His production was mostly volume-based.
Diggs averaged 21.5 PPR points on 10.8 targets per game in Weeks 1-9 and only 9.7 PPR points on 7.9 targets per game in Weeks 10-18. Diggs did produce a couple of blow-up spots against Philadelphia and Miami in the back half of the season but he also finished as the WR45 or worse on six separate occasions.
Being paired with CJ Stroud certainly helps Diggs’ stock but there’s also a lot of mouths to feed in Houston. Wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell broke out last season, while tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Joe Mixon will also earn a handful of targets each game.
Is there a world where Diggs leaps everyone and instantly becomes a target-hog WR1? Absolutely. Diggs is on his best behavior when heavily involved and Houston is well aware of his history. On the other hand, it’s hard to justify a top-30 selection on such a question mark.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): ADP 21.69 | ECR 40
Miami running back De’Von Achane is one of the most exciting players in the entire league and is looking to improve on an outstanding rookie season. Injuries and backfield depth limited Achane’s touches in Year 1, but the rookie made the most of his opportunities. Achane led the league with 1.47 PPR fantasy points per touch (minimum 100 opportunities) and finished as the RB24 in only nine full games.
Unfortunately, Achane isn’t even the RB1 in Miami’s backfield, making his ADP of 21.69 one of the most boom/bust draft selections in current NFFC drafts. Achane is so talented it feels wrong to bet against him, but the injuries and workload are a legitimate concern. Achane fighting through injuries to his shoulder, knee, toe and ribs makes you question whether he’ll ever regularly exceed 15 touches per game.
As for the depth chart, veteran Raheem Mostert is still the presumed starting running back in Miami and was rewarded this offseason with a contract extension through 2025. Miami also drafted Mostert’s likely successor in running back Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee in round four of the 2024 NFL Draft. Achane is talented enough to overcome these issues, but I prefer him in round three more than his current position in the middle of round two.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS): ADP 76.67 | ECR 99
Coming off his worst season since 2018, Washington running back Austin Ekeler is an easy fade at his current ADP of 76.67 on NFFC. After finishing as a high-end RB1 three separate times from 2019-2022, the wheels finally came off for Ekeler in Los Angeles last season. The running back’s average dropped to 13.24 points per game, which is unfortunately also his miles-per-hour these days.
Now with the Washington Commanders, there’s no reason to believe Ekeler will regain his magic in a new city. Ekeler will share backfield duties with Brian Robinson Jr., while wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson should lead the Commanders in targets. Even if Ekeler plays more snaps than expected, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels doesn’t fit the profile of a check-down specialist. Players with that special rushing ability usually prefer scrambling for yards rather than dumping off to their running back.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target
- Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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