Drafts are happening thick and fast with every site offering a plethora of options to suit any budget or taste. One of the longest-running platforms is FFPC, which caters to higher budget options with drafts ranging from $35 up into the thousands. The most popular is their flagship contest, the $125 best ball tournament. FFPC uses a full PPR format with an additional 0.5 points awarded to tight ends for each reception. These are the most obvious overvalued fantasy football players to avoid on FFPC in June. Below are my biggest fades in FFPC drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- More Site-Specific Player Fades: ESPN | Fantrax | NFFC
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – CAR): 189.7 ADP
There were plenty of people who expected and hoped Ja’Tavion Sanders would be taken high enough in the draft to give him solid draft capital but Sanders fell to the 101st overall pick in round four of the draft where the Carolina Panthers selected him. Sanders had consecutive years with 45+ catches and 600+ yards in college, but now will be the third or fourth option in an offense that even if it takes a significant step forward could still be very poor in 2024. Head Coach Dave Canales is driving some buzz after two successful years in Seattle and Tampa Bay, but neither of those teams featured their tight ends in meaningful ways. With Sanders being a below-average blocker he might struggle to be on the field consistently enough to be relevant his rookie season.
“I told everybody I’m trying to be the next
Greg Olsen here.” – Ja’Tavion Sanders ???? pic.twitter.com/9yY6ZgSVQg– Michael Rimmer (@avl_mike) May 11, 2024
J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC): 146.6 ADP
Sadly, for a player who was expected to do great things coming out of college, J.K Dobbins has played only nine games since his rookie season (2020), rushing for 542 yards on 100 attempts and dealing with a multi-ligament knee injury that required multiple surgeries and then a torn Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season. The Chargers have a highly ambiguous backfield with Dobbins, Gus Edwards and late-round rookie Kimani Vidal. The opportunities are likely to be limited for Dobbins with him again teaming up with Greg Roman, who Dobbins used to be unhappy with due to him being subbed out at times for Edwards in Baltimore. Dobbins’ contract is so minimal it’ll be no surprise if he gets cut before the season starts, despite the Chargers’ lack of options.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): 96.3 ADP
On Underdog and DraftKings it’s not uncommon to see T.J. Hockenson fall into the 150-pick range of drafts, which still feels a tad high for a player coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenario expects Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point he will be expected to get up to speed with a new rookie quarterback. By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The tight end-premium scoring makes the position more valuable, but parting with a top-100 pick for a player who could give you nothing for half a season feels like a steep price to pay. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone until his average draft position (ADP) gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to training camp when he lands on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list.
Kevin O’Connell said T.J. Hockenson is on schedule with his recovery process; he didn’t have a timetable on when Hockenson could return, but said the short-term IR rules might keep the #Vikings from needing to put Hockenson on the PUP list to start the regular season.
– Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) June 4, 2024
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): 116.9 ADP
Cleveland hasn’t particularly made it sound like they expect Nick Chubb to come back strong in 2024 after bringing in the more than capable D’Onta Foreman to share the workload with Jerome Ford, who was steady last year but far from an every-down type of player. Chubb underwent multiple surgeries to deal with an ACL injury that also included other ligament damage. Last year, Breece Hall showed us that younger running backs coming off a clean ACL tear can be productive straight away. However, when other ligaments are involved, like with JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams and Kyler Murray, then typically it’s a trickier recovery ahead. Not to mention that Chubb is turning 29 this year, and never had the pass-catching upside to bulk his stats. If Chubb can’t break away and is unable to command large volume, it’s tough to imagine him regaining his every-down role. Not to mention the fact Chubb is only back with the Browns because he agreed to a sizable pay cut. Chubb is by far one of the most fun running backs in the league, but expecting him to make a big difference in 2024 might be a little too hopeful. Taking him in this range means passing on a lot of healthy and interesting backs.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): 174.8 ADP
Malik Nabers indeed represents the best wide receiver Daniel Jones has ever thrown to, but it’s also true this New York Giants offense is a long way from being competent. Darren Waller wasn’t particularly reliable in 2023, posting only three games as a top-12 option out of the 11 he played and Jones’ passing yards per game dropped to a career-low 151.5 along with his completed air yards per completion hitting a career-low 4.3. The Giants had the third-worst offensive line in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) run-blocking grades last year and the recruits they’ve added to solve the problem are Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemunor, who ranked 240th and 62nd in block rate, respectively. These issues are far from fixed.
“Daniel Jones going deep for Malik Nabers!”pic.twitter.com/hvSJ5mkIdy
– Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 26, 2024
James Conner (RB – ARI): 70.0 ADP
When James Conner played with Kyler Murray in 2023 he averaged 18 PPR points per game, almost double the 11 he averaged in games without Murray, so there is a positive case to be made for Conner but he’s being drafted as the RB21, which feels a little excessive. Contrast this to Underdog, where Conner is the RB27 and it feels all the more expensive, even though Conner will add value in the receiving game. Conner currently goes ahead of Zamir White, Jonathan Brooks, Zack Moss and Raheem Mostert, showing what a muddled area this is. At that cost, with rookie Trey Benson lurking, this might be higher than necessary.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): 35.1 ADP
With the additions the Kansas City Chiefs made it’s fair to expect a bounceback season for Patrick Mahomes after a career-worst QB14 finish last year, the first time he finished outside the top six as a starter. Mahomes, though, is currently going as the QB2 on FFPC, ahead of both Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, who have a far bigger weekly upside due to their rushing floor. Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 48 quarterbacks who averaged 5.0 rushing attempts per game. Of that 48, 64% finished as top-12 quarterbacks in points per game with 46% finishing in the top 12 in total points scored. This is the barrier Mahomes has to overcome with excellent efficiency every year. While he’s done it plenty of times in his career, it’s risky at this cost.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target
- Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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