When it comes to fantasy football, identifying cornerstone rookie draft targets is paramount to success. FantasyPros analyst Andrew Erickson has analyzed player potential, team situations and long-term outlooks, and he’s concluded these are the top rookies every fantasy football manager should prioritize in dynasty, redraft and best ball formats. Note that these aren’t the super obvious top rookies, but ones that go a bit later in drafts. Here are my must-have rookies to target in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
When it comes to fantasy football, identifying cornerstone rookie draft targets is paramount to success. FantasyPros analyst Andrew Erickson has analyzed player potential, team situations and long-term outlooks, and he’s concluded these are the top rookies every fantasy football manager should prioritize in dynasty, redraft and best ball formats. Note that these aren’t the super obvious top rookies, but ones that go a bit later in drafts. Here are my must-have rookies to target in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Andrew Erickson’s Must-Have Rookie Draft Targets
But before we do…let’s recap last year’s hits and misses from this same article. Nine rookies were listed to target in 2023. Here’s how it shook out.
Overall, we only had one true “hit” come in the form of Jayden Reed.
Hopefully, we can learn from the misses and use that to better project this year’s crop of first-year players.
We’ll start with running backs. I was “in” on Zach Charbonnet, Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears and Zach Evans.
We can get Evans out of the way quickly. He was a sixth-round pick, and I underestimated Sean McVay’s love for Kyren Williams. Simply put, don’t fall in love with late-round (sixth-round or later) rookie RBs.
As for the remaining group, it’s so painful to be on every rookie RB not named De’Von Achane who went on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller was plagued by injuries the entire season. Charbonnet was in an RB committee nearly the entire season with Kenneth Walker. And he was more of a nuisance to Walker’s fantasy managers than an actual useful asset. Although, he did carve out a larger role as the season progressed.
Both Seahawks RBs saw decent red-zone roles during the season, but Charbonnet led the team in red-zone touches after Week 8. He scored one red-zone TD on 22 red-zone carries. Walker scored seven on 38 red-zone carries. In the games they both played after Week 8, Charbonnet was also the more involved receiver, dominating the routes run from Seattle’s backfield.
But when Charbonnet had the chance to show out in his two spot starts, he was underwhelming. Still, it shouldn’t be a total negative that he earned playing time as a rookie in Year 1 alongside Walker. He out-snapped Walker in five of their last eight games played together.
I am back in on Charbonnet as a sleeper running back in a new offense run by Ryan Grubb. But the lesson I am trying to learn is that even as great as his prospect profile and draft capital were, supplanting Walker without an injury would be a tough hill to climb. Sometimes rookie RBs cause more of a headache in backfields, rather than create standalone value for themselves.
Spears was similar to Charbonnet in that fashion with the Titans in Year 1, but his real value was anticipating the departure of Derrick Henry this offseason. For a short time frame, Spears was viewed as a consensus top-20 running back, at least until the Titans signed Tony Pollard in free agency. That pours cold water on Spears’ second-year ceiling, but don’t knock the impressive year he had as a rookie.
Spears was 12th in route participation as a rookie (48%) and 29th in snap share (53%). He also ranked fifth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).
The lesson with Spears — as alluded to in my dynasty targets article — is to target rookie running backs who could see the biggest bumps in value just by moving up their respective RB depth charts based on projected 2025 free-agency implications.
Let’s move to the WRs. The 2023 rookies I targeted included Reed, Marvin Mims, Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman and Kayshon Boutte.
Reed was my biggest hit because his prospect profile was nearly flawless. Senior Bowl standout, 18-year-old breakout age, extremely productive college career amid NFL-level competition, special teams ability, second-round draft capital and strong deep ball numbers. The landing spot in Green Bay had some question marks, but there was at least a clear path to targets.
What also might have aided in Reed’s breakout was his older age as a rookie, which many see as a negative. However, in the case of Reed and Tank Dell, being older allows them to hit the ground running.
Mims flashed his upside from the get-go but struggled to get enough playing time behind veteran WRs on the Broncos. The team traded Jerry Jeudy this offseason, which theoretically should open the target floodgates for Mims. He is still super young and all the Broncos did was draft Troy Franklin in the fourth round.
Mingo was always a boom-or-bust proposition, and he busted hard in the Panthers’ anemic offense heralded by a rookie QB. More often than not, rookie QBs are not strong bets to fuel fantasy success for their pass-catchers. Especially when it’s incomplete profiles like Mingo, who got all the opportunities he could handle in Year 1. He was 30th in routes run among all WRs during the regular season. It’s not a bad process to chase opportunities when the cost isn’t prohibited for rookie WRs. But sometimes, it just doesn’t pan out.
Tillman was another long-term bet given that he was buried on the Browns depth chart as rookie. But what’s uninspiring is that Tillman played a lot during the second half of the season, with zero production to show for it. The QB play was in constant influx, which likely contributed to the lack of Year 1 production. But if the Browns felt comfortable with Tillman, why trade for Jerry Jeudy? Perhaps that’s more about how sour they are on Elijah Moore. Tillman still might have a chance in the Browns’ long-term plans given Amari Cooper will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Last but not least, is Boutte. He was straight booty in Year 1 and likely is facing a major uphill battle to make the Patriots roster in 2024. However, I don’t hate my process of taking an upside shot on him. I cited he would not clog your roster, and that came to fruition tenfold. However, looking back at taking shots on Day 3 rookie WRs, I think it’s more important to think within the context of the overall team’s upside. The Patriots’ offense was going to be average, at best, last season, limiting any true ceiling with Boutte. Start from a top-down approach of offenses/teams that could fuel a strong fantasy WR and work from there while shuffling through these Day 3 rookie WRs, should you choose so.
2024 Rookie Draft Targets
Jayden Daniels played five seasons of college ball, totaling 55 games. He’s ready to go as a passer more than we traditionally see from most rookie passers. He led the NCAA in yards per attempt (11.5) and finished as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) second-highest graded passer (92.0) in his final season at LSU.
His ability to add value as a rusher makes him the perfect late-round QB to draft in best ball and 2024 redraft formats. Daniels can thrive in a familiar Kliff Kingsbury system with underrated weapons already entrenched at the skill positions. In college, the No.2 overall pick rushed for over 3,300 yards — 60 rushing yards per game. Last year’s third quarterback selected, Anthony Richardson, also averaged 60 rushing yards per game in the college ranks.
Among the crop of rookie QBs, Daniels has — by far — the best chance of finishing as a fantasy QB1 in 2024. We saw Kingsbury work his magic with Kyler Murray en route to an Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award. Murray was QB7 overall in his rookie season. He finished as the QB12 in points per game as a rookie, third in carries and second in rushing yards.
In other real-life NFL drafts without Caleb Williams-level talent at the top, Daniels would have easily been the No. 1 overall pick. He’s my favorite bet to win OROY in 2024 as I wrote in my BettingPros 2024 NFL Futures piece.
Xavier Worthy capped off his college career at Texas with over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns in his junior year at Texas, securing a 30% career dominator rating (the second highest in his class) with a breakout age at 18. At 6-foot-1 and 172 pounds, Worthy distinguished himself early as a Longhorn, notching 62 receptions for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns in his freshman year.
At the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, he showcased his elite speed by breaking the 40-yard dash record.
His return abilities/elite speed have drawn comparisons to DeSean Jackson, both from his new head coach Andy Reid and FantasyPros NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom, underscoring his potential impact in Year 1. Set to join the Chiefs as a first-round pick Kansas City traded up for, Worthy is expected to compete for a significant role, particularly with the possibility of an expanded opportunity if teammate Rashee Rice faces a suspension amid multiple off-the-field concerns. Worthy could easily finish the year as a top-24 WR.
I’m not going to overthink this one. Sometimes, a rookie lands in the exact ideal landing spot we hope and pray for. And that’s how I view Xavier Worthy landing with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Reminds me of De’Von Achane landing in Miami last season. It just fits like a glove.
The future is now in Kansas City, and his name is Xavier Worthy. The undersized wide receiver checks off nearly all the boxes I could desire in a rookie prospect. All. In.
Ladd McConkey isn’t without some concerns in his college profile given his late breakout age at 21. But it was in this third season as a redshirt sophomore (2022) when he totaled 762 receiving yards and seven scores en route to a 20% dominator rating
And be aware that he’s been competing for targets with arguably the best college football tight end of all time in Brock Bowers since he’s been at Georgia.
In 2022, Adonai Mitchell (2024 second-round pick) also played for the Bulldogs but was firmly behind McConkey on the WR depth chart. In the two games McConkey played in 2023 without Bowers healthy, he posted his two highest yardage outputs during his final season.
The 6-foot-0 185-pound WR missed time in his final year at Georgia with injuries, which hurt his final counting stats. But he was still efficient, finishing eighth in the nation in yards per route run (3.26).
Even so, McConkey’s game is characterized by his quickness, route polish and speed rather than physical dominance. His agility in creating separation and his nuanced route-running skills allow him to find space in tight coverage. He will likely be more underrated than most other WRs based on his final-year stats and injuries, but it’s unwarranted. He ran a sub-4.4 forty at the combine and owned collegiate success at a top program.
McConkey has the tools to transition effectively to the professional level. The Chargers traded up with the Patriots in round two to select McConkey. He is on a very weak WR depth chart with Josh Palmer operating as the grizzly veteran. We could easily project the former Bulldog to lead the Bolts in targets. It’s a bet worth making across all fantasy football formats ranging from dynasty to best ball.
Brian Thomas Jr. burst onto the scene in his final junior season at LSU, demonstrating impressive growth with a 33% dominator rating at 21 years old, leading the FBS with 17 touchdowns, and accumulating 1,177 yards over 68 receptions, at an average of a whopping 17.3 yards per catch. At 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash wheels to boot, he fits the prototype of a perimeter X-receiver.
Thomas compiled the sixth-highest college dominator rating in his draft class at 24%, despite not being the primary focus of LSU’s offense. He competed for targets with fellow standout and future top-10 pick Malik Nabers.
Entering Year 1 in the pros, the Jaguars first-round WR is positioned to inherit a significant volume of targets left by Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, who combined for 200 targets last season.
Suppose the former LSU WR can absorb the expansive and salivating role vacated by Ridley. In that case, nearly 1,800 air yards, 22.5% target share, 36% air yards share, NFL leader in end zone targets, WR10 in expected fantasy points per game — Thomas would be one of the best rookies WR targets in fantasy football across all formats. However, this might be accompanied by a lack of consistency given Thomas doesn’t project to be the target alpha in an offense with so many playmakers. But with newly signed Gabe Davis, Thomas’ primary competition on the perimeter, it’s easy to envision Thomas emerging as Trevor Lawrence‘s go-to deep ball WR for this year and beyond.
In 2023, Lawrence ranked third in pass attempts of 20+ air yards, second in 20+ air yard completions and first in TDs of 20+ air yards.
There’s high-end splash week potential with Thomas in Jacksonville. Don’t get caught napping on the 23rd overall pick.
Even though Jonathon Brooks went as the No. 1 RB during the 2024 NFL Draft, he wasn’t the only top RB to land in a great spot. Trey Benson was selected by the Arizona Cardinals at the top of round three (66th overall). I love the spot for him on an ascending Cardinals offense with James Conner entering the last year of his contract. I fully expect Conner to still be the “bell cow” in 2024, if he can maintain his health. Obviously, that’s not a given. But in the meantime, Benson has the size/speed profile to flash his explosiveness while working with Conner. He posted a 51% missed tackle rate in 2023. If/when Conner goes down, it will be the Benson show in the desert.
My rookie RB5 is none other than Tyrone Tracy. A quintessential example of a high-upside/no-floor round-five running back. Because among the 2024 rookie RB class, not many of the Day 3 selections landed in situations with clear paths to touches. RBs like Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Isaac Guerendo, Audric Estime and Will Shipley don’t look like anything more than glorified handcuffs or situational-based RBs.
But the lone exception, in my estimation, is the former Purdue Boilermaker, who was selected by the Giants.
Devin Singletary is by far the weakest veteran RB any of these Day 3 rookie RBs are competing for touches/snaps with. Singletary does everything right but doesn’t “wow” coaches on the field. Second-year RB, Eric Gray, didn’t do much during his rookie campaign after failing to secure the No. 2 RB job from Matt Breida in 2023.
Therefore, the Giants’ fifth-round pick could be an upside play in the Giants’ backfield should Singletary flounder with the starting gig. Keep in mind that in Tracy’s first year playing RB at Purdue after switching from WR he led his draft class in yards after contact per attempt. He also finished in Sports Info Solutions’ boom percentage at 15% — a mark that summarizes the percentage of plays that result in an EPA greater than +1 (great play for the offense).
He could be the Giants’ RB1, or he could be completely nothing given his inexperience at RB.
Giants head coach Brian Daboll on Tracy, per Giants Wire…
“He’s an athlete who has played receiver and then played running back and has some good production,” said Daboll. “We’ll throw him in the mix. Whether that’s in the kickoff return game or whether that’s at running back or the receiving part of it, we’ve got to do a good job of getting him in here and seeing where he’s at and then trying to fit him into the things that he can do well.”
Tracy is a free flier selection in the last rounds of best ball drafts and at the end of round three in rookie drafts.
Audric Estime sat on the bench as a freshman in 2021, backing up future fantasy football league winner Kyren Williams.
But he got his chance to be the RB1 for the Fighting Irish for the next two seasons, and he thrived — 22% dominator rating as a sophomore and a 28% dominator rating this past season. He also scored 18 TDs (tied for second) and recorded over 1,300 rushing yards.
And he was beyond efficient with his 225+ touches — first in PFF grading (94.2), fifth in yards after contact per attempt (4.3) and third in rushes of 15+ yards. Per Sports Info Solutions, he also finished second in the class in both positive run percentage and boom percentage (which are both metrics that result in positive EPA and/or runs that generate an EPA of more than 1).
He also flashed strong hands with a 100% catch rate (26 targets) through two seasons. His pass protection needs fine-tuning, however, based on the scouting notes presented by Matthew Jones.
Still, with ideal size at 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds (slightly less than his college-listed weight at 227), Estime could easily be a future bell-cow back at the NFL level. When I turned on the tape, I was impressed. He has shades of Nick Chubb in his game as a north and south runner who doesn’t waste his efforts.
And as a final note to sign off my love for Estime, the Notre Dame RB owns the second-highest yards per play (3.32) in the 2024 NFL RB Draft Class. He also owns the second-highest single-season mark from this past season in yards per play (3.82).
Unfortunately for Estime, he ran a sluggish 4.71 40-yard dash, not too dissimilar to Kyren Williams’ 4.65 40-yard dash. However, his vertical was 38″ (87th percentile) and broad jump was 10’5″ (89th percentile) showcasing his explosiveness.
The 40-yard dash hurt his draft capital as he fell to the fifth round to the Denver Broncos. On the surface, Estime’s landing spot in Denver is not ideal for his fantasy prospects. However, head coach Sean Payton has come out and been positive about Estime, citing he will be competing for touches behind Javonte Williams on first and second down. Williams is entering the last year of his contract, so we could see Estime slated as Denver’s RB1 as soon as the start of the 2025 season. We could see his dynasty value rise dramatically should the Broncos just let Williams walk in free agency.
Mark my words, Estime will provide a positive return on investment (RO1) for anybody in dynasty who takes a stab at him in round four of their rookie drafts.
Javon Baker couldn’t sniff the field at Alabama (he wanted the ball), so he transferred to UCF during the last two seasons of his college tenure. He enjoyed two strong seasons with the Knights, posting dominator ratings of 23% and 31%. The 6-foot-1, 202-pound WR was a big-play savant, owning the second-highest yards per reception (21.9) nationally in 2023. He ended the season fifth in yards per route run among the 2024 WR draft class (3.21).
Baker reminds me a ton of DeVonta Smith from a route-running and body-control perspective, but Baker has more size and yards after the catch (YAC) ability in his game. He was drafted by the Patriots in round four but could make some noise on a relatively weak Patriots WR depth chart. Even though the Patriots drafted Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk two rounds ahead of Baker and have a bunch of returning veterans, I think the fourth-rounder offers a much higher ceiling as a potential alpha in New England’s passing game. Baker finished fourth in targets and third in receptions of 20+ air yards in 2023. The only other WRs in the class to do so? The consensus top four who were all first-rounders (Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers).
Snag him at the start of round three during your rookie drafts.
Troy Franklin established himself as a premier college football receiver during his junior year, amassing nearly 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, hanging a final season dominator rating of 29% — the 17th-highest mark in the 2024 class. Franklin was a formidable deep threat with 14 catches of 20+ air yards and the third-highest yards per route run (3.32) in the 2024 draft class.
Despite concerns about his slender frame, his selection by the Broncos at the beginning of round four, facilitated by Sean Payton’s history of trading up for receivers, positions him for significant playing time. Reuniting with former college quarterback Bo Nix enhances Franklin’s potential impact on Denver’s offense, potentially overshadowing fellow teammate Marvin Mims. With Payton eyeing Franklin for a key role and his established chemistry with Nix, he could quickly establish himself atop the target pecking order for the Broncos.
Franklin’s fall from a fringe first-round pick to Day 3 isn’t ideal, but in another year where WR wasn’t as deep, he likely would have gone earlier. Other teams were scared of his poor combine showing and slight frame. More importantly, the early college breakout from Oregon lands on a relatively weak WR depth chart where his fourth-round pedigree won’t hinder his playing time. Payton envisions Franklin in the “Z” role, which was occupied by Jerry Jeudy last season. Jeudy saw plenty of opportunities last year. And if you are Nix, you’ll likely prefer your college WR teammate you built chemistry with the past several years over Mims, who struggled to earn playing time/targets as a rookie.
Jermaine Burton’s collegiate career took a notable turn during his senior year at Alabama, achieving a 30% dominator rating at 22. Initially at Georgia, Burton showed promise, posting a 19% dominator rating in his first year at Alabama with 677 yards and seven TDs, after a competitive stint at Georgia where he battled for targets with players like George Pickens and Brock Bowers.
During his second season as a Bulldog, Burton was second on the team in receiving yards behind only Brock Bowers — despite competing for targets with the aforementioned tight end, Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell (more NFL talent).
His standout traits include a significant downfield role, evidenced by a 20.2 average depth of target (aDOT) — third highest in the FBS in 2023 — and excellent efficiency, finishing 12th among all WRs in the 2024 class in yards per route run with zero drops. Burton possesses an explosive skillset with 4.45 wheels and jumps in the 82nd percentile-plus. He’s a big play waiting to happen, but likely won’t command a hyper-intense target share at the next level. He has only two games on his college resume with double-digit targets. Burton also has some off-field issues and concerns that could have impacted his draft capital.
Drafted by the Bengals in the third round, Burton is poised for a rising stock, especially with speculation around Tee Higgins‘ future with the team. Despite concerns over occasional off-field issues, Burton’s explosive skill set and the opportunity in Cincinnati’s passing game could make him a key player to watch, assuming he navigates his professional landscape effectively.
He’s an awesome fit as the future Robin to Ja’Marr Chase‘s Batman in Cincy’s WR room. It’s been reported Burton has been training with former Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so there’s a comfort level between Burton and the Bengals organization.
Malik Washington, standing at 5-foot-8 and weighing 191 pounds, made a significant impact in his final college season at Virginia after transferring from Northwestern. He achieved an impressive 47% dominator rating, led the 2024 draft class with a 38% target share and accumulated nearly 1,400 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, earning him the second-highest PFF grade of 92.4 among WRs. His 2023 season was one of the best in the class. Washington’s exceptional performance continued into the NFL Combine, where he led his class with a 42.5-inch vertical jump (98th percentile), showcasing his remarkable athleticism despite his shorter stature. Drafted by the Dolphins in the sixth round, his skills as a YAC specialist make him a promising addition to an offense that already features dynamic playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Coach Mike McDaniel’s enthusiasm for Washington (he was bugging his general manager to draft him several rounds earlier) suggests he could significantly exceed expectations, benefiting from both opportunity and a quarterback capable of enhancing his fantasy production. Odell Beckham Jr.‘s presence shouldn’t stop Washington if he’s truly a viable piece on offense.
At 23 years old, Washington has the requisite experience to hit the ground running. If I had to bet on a Day 3 WR hitting in a big way this season, I’d push my chips in Washington.
He’s a free flier selection in the last rounds of best ball drafts and at the end of round three in rookie drafts.
Honorable Mentions: Dylan Laube, Kendall Milton, Jalen McMillan, Jacob Cowing
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