MLB DFS Picks, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (6/6)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has seven games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The suggested player props from MLB PrizePicks and Underdog are from the same slate of games.

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tanner Houck (BOS) at CWS
Tanner Houck has a sub-2.00 ERA -- 1.85 to be exact -- in a dozen starts this year. He's also in good form. According to FanGraphs, in Houck's past five games spanning 32.2 innings, he's had a 1.65 ERA, 3.34 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 22.3 K%, 31.8 CSW%, 106 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 106 Pitching+. Additionally, Houck has spun 10 quality starts in 12 opportunities this season.

He should feast on a cupcake tonight. This season, the White Sox are 30th in wRC+ (75) with a 23.2 K% versus righties and 30th in wRC+ (76) with a 21.8 K% at home. In the previous 14 days, Chicago was 29th in wRC+ (74) with a 24.6 K%. The Red Sox are -220 against the hapless White Sox, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.

Sonny Gray (STL) vs. COL
Don't panic about Sonny Gray's 5.40 ERA in his past five starts. Instead, gamers should trust the underlying data. In his previous five starts spanning 26.2 innings, Gray has had a 2.71 xFIP, 2.84 SIERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.6 BB%, 33.6 K%, 33.6 CSW%, 114 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 107 Pitching+.

Gray is a strikeout machine this year, and they should be plentiful tonight. This year, the Rockies are 29th in wRC+ (79) with a 26.1 K% versus righties and 27th in wRC+ (86) with a 25.5 K% on the road. They've also been tied for 27th in wRC+ (81) with a 25.0 K% in the last 14 days. The Red Birds are -240, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.

Randy Vasquez (SD) vs. ARI

Randy Vasquez wasn't as bad in his previous four starts as his 5.68 ERA suggested. The young righty had a more palatable 3.86 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA in those turns. He was killed by an unsustainable .369 BABIP and a .333 batting average against. Regression on Vasquez's batted balls would do him wonders.

Vasquez can clear the low bar needed to provide DFS gamers with value as a punt-priced SP2 at DK in a plus matchup. The Diamondbacks are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (93) with a 21.8 K% versus righties and 11th in wRC+ (102) with a 22.7 K% on the road this season. Arizona was also 19th in wRC+ (92) with a 24.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Finally, the betting info is decent. The Friars are -130, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Home (Great American Ball Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CIN -130

There is a risk the Reds will suffer from the Coors Field hangover after completing their series in Colorado yesterday. Thankfully, Great American Ball Park is a launching pad in its own right. The Reds are also in good form. In the previous 14 days, they were third in wRC+ (119).

Javier Assad isn't a pushover but is also not a hurler to avoid. Cincinnati also has hitters with the qualifications against righties to get the better of him. Six of Cincinnati's hitters have had at least a 103 wRC+ against righties since 2021 or debuting in the majors, and two of the outliers had a 98 wRC+ and 99 wRC+. Therefore, Assad doesn't have bingo squares as free outs, creating a high ceiling for the Reds if they're sharp tonight.

• Road (Yankee Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN +120

Marcus Stroman is on an exceptionally lucky run. In his previous five starts, Stroman has had a 1.95 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 4.64 SIERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.3 BB%, 16.1 K%, 7.8 SwStr%, 26.1 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 98 Pitching+. The other shoe dropped for James Paxton last night, and the same can happen for Stroman tonight.

Minnesota's projected lineup has seven hitters who've had at least a 103 wRC+ against righties since 2021 or debuting in the majors, and the outliers had a 90 wRC+ and 99 wRC+. So, like the Reds, the Twins don't have gimme-outs for Stroman. Furthermore, five of those hitters had at least a 110 wRC+.

Core Studs

• In 215 career plate appearances at home against righties, Elly De La Cruz has had a .340 OBP, .222 ISO and 111 wRC+. The toolsy shortstop has also stolen 32 bases this year.
• In 328 plate appearances at home since joining the Reds in 2022, Jake Fraley has had a .354 OBP, .205 ISO and 123 wRC+.
• Jeimer Candelario stuffed the stat sheet yesterday, smacking his eighth homer of the year and swiping his first two bases in 2024. The switch-hitting infielder has a .304 OBP, .207 ISO and 107 wRC+ this season and a DFS-friendly lineup spot.

Value Plays/Punts

• In 116 plate appearances this season, Trevor Larnach has a .319 OBP, .190 ISO and 120 wRC+. He's also atop Minnesota's batting order.
• Since reaching the majors in 2021, Alex Kirilloff has had a .318 OBP, .174 ISO and 109 wRC+ against righties. Meanwhile, Stroman has coughed up a .380 wOBA to 126 lefties this season.
• In 181 plate appearances in Triple-A this season, Miguel Vargas hit eight homers and stole eight bases with a .436 OBP, .288 ISO and 150 wRC+. In 17 plate appearances as a part-time player for the Dodgers in 2024, he has a .294 OBP, .313 ISO and 141 wRC+.

Thursday's Top 3 Underdog and PrizePicks Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Javier Assad: 27.5 Fantasy Points - Lower (Underdog)/Less (PrizePicks)

I suggested stacking the Reds, so suffice it to say, I don't believe Assad will navigate the pitfalls of Great American Ball Park's hitter-friendly park factors. In his previous five starts spanning 25.1 innings, he's had a 3.20 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP, 12.5 BB%, 26.8 K%, 6.4 SwStr%, 26.5 CSW%, 84 Stuff+, 99 Location+ and 92 Pitching+. Assad's ERA estimators were OK, but his strikeout rate was a fluke based on his plate discipline and pitch modeling. He also hasn't piled up innings. Assad's season-high for innings was six, a mark he's hit only three times in 12 starts. Therefore, Assad is unlikely to tally a quality start, and strikeout regression will further damage his fantasy scoring.

Trevor Larnach: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher/More

In addition to Larnach's stellar marks this year, he's been an above-average hitter against righties. In 640 career plate appearances since 2021 against righties, he's hit 27 doubles, three triples and 23 homers with a .233 batting average, .418 slugging and .184 ISO. Larnach's spot atop Minnesota's lineup will give him maximum opportunities to record hits and score runs against a pitcher due for regression.

Walker Buehler: 30.5 Fantasy Points - Lower (Underdog)

Walker Buehler: 29.0 Fantasy Points - Less (PrizePicks)

Walker Buehler hasn't been sharp in his return from Tommy John surgery. In five starts totaling 25.0 innings, he's had a 4.32 ERA, 4.07 xERA, 3.75 SIERA, 1.32 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 22.9 K%, 7.7 SwStr% (career-low), 27.7 CSW%, 98 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 99 Pitching+. Buehler's underwhelming pitch modeling supports his lackluster plate discipline data.

The righty's season-high for innings in five starts was six, a threshold he's reached twice. Still, he's struck out fewer than five batters three times, and he flubbed a cushy matchup against the Rockies in Los Angeles in his most recent turn. Therefore, Buehler still has kinks that need to be ironed out.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.