Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings has four games starting at 7:07 p.m. ET, and FanDuel has six games starting at 6:20 p.m. ET. The top player props from PrizePicks and Underdog are also from the night’s games.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Jack Flaherty (DET) at LAA
Jack Flaherty has pitched out of this world lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous four starts spanning 22.1 innings, Flaherty has had a 0.40 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, 2.55 SIERA, 0.67 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 33.3 K%, 31.0 CSW%, 92 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
He has a plus matchup and favorable betting info tonight. The Angels are tied for 24th in wRC+ (91) with a 23.2 K% versus righties and tied for 22nd in wRC+ (95) with a 23.5 K% at home this year. They were also 20th in wRC+ (99) with a 20.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Thus, the Tigers are -166, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Carlos Rodon (NYY) at TOR
Carlos Rodon had an ugly 5.86 ERA in his past five starts, totaling 27.2 innings. Yet, the lefty's underlying data was much better, including a 3.99 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.1 BB%, 23.1 K%, 27.6 CSW%, 124 Stuff+, 97 Location+ and 105 Pitching+.
Rodon's matchup against the Blue Jays is stellar. This season, Toronto is 26th in wRC+ (83) with a 17.8 K% versus lefties and 20th in wRC+ (97) with a 20.3 K% at home. They were also tied for 17th in wRC+ (105) with a 21.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Finally, the Yankees are -135, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Tigers have a lousy offense. Still, they have a dreamy matchup, and they're a cheap stack. In three relief appearances totaling 12.1 innings last season, Davis Daniel had a 2.19 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 6.00 xFIP, 5.97 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP, 17.3 BB% and 17.3 K%. In 14 starts in Triple-A this year, Daniel has a 5.33 ERA and 4.65 xFIP. LA's relievers are a disaster, too. They have the second-highest ERA (5.12) this year.
Core Studs
- In 352 plate appearances this year, Aaron Judge has hit 30 homers and stolen five bases with a .433 OBP, .404 ISO and 215 wRC+.
- Bobby Witt has hit 12 homers and stolen 21 stolen bases with a .361 OBP, .226 ISO and 145 wRC+ in 360 plate appearances this season.
- In 336 plate appearances this year, Riley Greene has hit 15 homers and stolen four bases with a .355 OBP, .234 ISO and 138 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- Daniel Schneemann has a .379 OBP, .240 ISO and 156 wRC+ in 58 plate appearances in his rookie campaign.
- Ben Rice tore the cover off the ball in the upper minors (Double-A and Triple-A). In his final 489 plate appearances in the upper minors, Rice hit 31 homers with a .398 OBP, .288 ISO and 167 wRC+.
- Colt Keith is in good form after a slow start to this season. In his past 111 plate appearances, he's hit four homers with a .324 OBP, .170 ISO and 123 wRC+.
Thursday's Top 3 Underdog and PrizePicks Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Aaron Judge: 10.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)
Aaron Judge: 10.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Since 2022, Judge has had .424 OBP, .372 ISO and 202 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He's also dominated Jose Berrios. According to Baseball Savant, Judge has hit two doubles and four homers with a .414 batting average, .414 xBA, .897 slugging, 1.033 xSLG, .546 wOBA and .612 xwOBA in 34 plate appearances against Berrios.
Bobby Witt: 9.0 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)
Bobby Witt: 9.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Witt has hit well in same-handed matchups. Since 2022, he's had a .323 OBP, .199 ISO and 116 wRC+ against righties. Meanwhile, Ben Lively has a reverse platoon split, yielding a .350 wOBA to 139 right-handed batters this season. He's also surrendered five stolen bases in 12 starts, giving the speedy Witt another path to scoring fantasy points.
Michael Wacha: 3.5 Strikeouts - Higher/More
The Guardians are difficult to strike out. This season, they've had an 18.5 K% against righties and 19.2 K% on the road. They've also had only a 17.5 K% in the previous 14 days. Still, Michael Wacha can clear the low bar of 3.5 strikeouts.
In 13 starts spanning 73.0 innings this year, Wacha has had a 4.07 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 4.20 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.0 BB%, 7.52 K/9, 20.2 K%, 61 strikeouts, 25.5 CSW%, 92 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 100 Pitching+. Wacha has averaged 4.7 strikeouts per game, with a median of four. He's exceeded 3.5 strikeouts in nine of 13 starts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.