It’s been a fun week of baseball, and we have some great series to finish the week. It’s hard to believe, but we’re approaching the season’s midpoint, with the All-Star break just a month away. The season is grueling in its length, but it’s always over before you know it.
With that said, let’s dive into this Saturday slate! Here are my top MLB DFS picks and player prop bet predictions for Saturday.
It’s been a fun week of baseball, and we have some great series to finish the week. It’s hard to believe, but we’re approaching the season’s midpoint, with the All-Star break just a month away. The season is grueling in its length, but it’s always over before you know it.
With that said, let’s dive into this Saturday slate! Here are my top MLB DFS picks and player prop bet predictions for Saturday.
Saturday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. DET
Verlander is among the best pitchers over the last two decades and is amid another solid season. The former Cy Young winner has allowed four runs or fewer in nine of his 10 starts, generating a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in those nine outings. That’s the guy we’ve become accustomed to, and we love that he has a home start against the Detroit Tigers. The Motor City Kitties rank 22nd in K rate, 27th in wOBA, and 24th in wOBA, with JV entering this matchup as a -140 favorite.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. KC
Yoshi had his most recent start pushed back, so he should be fully ready for this tough matchup with KC. The Royals have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, but they’re only projected to score 3.5 runs against Yamamoto. That’s no surprise since the LA pitcher has a 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 rate since the opener. We believe this KC lineup has played above their head, and regression could be in play since Yoshi is a -205 favorite!
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. OAK
Ober has been all over the map, but only a few bad starts have killed his numbers. The righty allowed 14 runs in two starts against Kansas City but has a 3.58 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his other 11 starts. That’s the guy we’ve seen over the last two years, with Ober posting a 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He should be able to recapture that form in a home matchup with Oakland, ranked bottom three in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and K rate. We also don’t mind that Ober is a -200 favorite!
Jared Jones (PIT) at COL
We rarely recommend pitchers in Coors Field, but the Rockies are remarkably bad. Colorado ranks 26th in K rate and 29th in xwOBA, posting subpar numbers in what’s usually a hitter’s haven. A guy like Jones should be able to add to those atrocious averages, with the Pirates pitcher providing a 3.28 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 rate. He faced them back in May and dropped a career-high 55 FanDuel points!
MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks
Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Ty Blach)
The Pirates’ offense has been one of the worst in the league, but everybody gets a Coors Field bump. Not only is that the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, but the Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP. Blach hasn’t helped lower those awful averages, with the lefty amassing a 6.36 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last four years!
Cookie Carrasco used to be an All-Star pitcher, but that was nearly a decade ago. Like any of us, age has crushed Carrasco, with the veteran totaling a 5.25 ERA and 1.46 WHIP since 2021. Toronto has struggled for most of the season, but they still have plenty of talented bats who can touch up an over-the-hill veteran like this.
MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs
- It’s difficult to fade Judge right now. The frontrunner for AL MVP leads the league in homers and RBI, generating a .428 OBP and 1.118 OPS. That’s scary since he started slowly, sporting a .515 OBP and 1.485 OPS across his last 37 games. We’d use him against any pitcher, but Cooper Criswell‘s 4.94 career ERA is far from impressive.
- Tatis has always been one of the best per-game producers in MLB, and he’s experiencing one of his torrid stretches right now. The All-Star has a .475 OBP and 1.210 OPS across his last 12 outings. That doesn’t even consider his elite power-speed combo, and we want to exploit that since he has the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana. The Mets lefty has a 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP!
- If we stack Toronto, Vlad has to be the first piece in our lineup. The Home Run Derby champ is starting to get hot, accruing a .408 OBP and .869 OPS across his last 40 fixtures. That’s what we’ve been waiting to see, and we definitely don’t want to fade him against a gas can like Carrasco.
- There aren’t many exciting bats for the Pirates, but Hayes has been slaughtering southpaws all season. The third baseman has a .436 OBP and .82 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That should bode well against a lackluster lefty in Coors because Pittsburgh is one of the highest-projected offenses on this slate!
MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts
- Nobody will use Abrams against a left-hander, but many people don’t realize that this blossoming stud has opposite splits. Despite struggling against southpaws throughout his career, CJ has a .359 OBP and .932 OPS against lefties this year. That’s awesome when evaluating his recent form, posting a .999 OPS across his last seven outings. We don’t mind that since Trevor Rogers has a 5.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP!
- O’Hearn is a platoon player for the O’s, but he always bats cleanup whenever Baltimore faces a right-hander. It’s easy to see why, with O’Hearn establishing a .351 OBP and .851 OPS against righties this year. He’s also got a .988 OPS over the last two weeks and shouldn’t have any issues against Taijuan Walker‘s 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
- Kepler and O’Hearn are nearly identical players, with Kepler always batting cleanup against righties as well. Like the Baltimore bat, Kepler has compiled a .344 OBP and .827 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. These guys are always too cheap because they’re not everyday players, but Kepler should clobber Joey Estes and his 4.78 ERA.
- Let’s keep the platoon bats rolling in with Slater. This outfielder hits leadoff whenever San Fran squares off with a southpaw, accumulating a .367 OBP and .780 OPS against them since 2021. That makes him about $1,000 too cheap on both sites, especially since he faces Patrick Sandoval‘s 5.23 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Flaherty has pitched at least five innings in all 12 starts this season, reaching six innings in all but two of those. Houston can be a tough matchup at times, but this lineup hasn’t been the same this season. All you need is Flaherty to get one out in the sixth inning to clear this prop.
Varsho is the only Toronto lefty with 0.5 bases for his prop, and he should reach that against a gas can like Carrasco. He’s had a hit in nine of his last 13 games, posting much better splits against righties throughout his career,
Ha-Seong Kim: 0.5 Total Bases – Higher
It’s hard to believe Kim is at just 0.5 bases with Quintana taking the mound. Kim has a .429 OBP across his last seven outings and has a .357 OBP against lefties since 2021.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
