6 Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

Every round of fantasy football drafts will contain mines detrimental to long-term success. These “busts” can be particularly frustrating due to injury or unforeseen off-field issues. The unfortunate reality is these situations cannot be avoided and will occur to all managers at some point.

That being said, certain fantasy profiles have alarming traits that are more predictable and should serve as a sign of caution to drafters. Among the players who have failed to live up to the offseason hype, there are a number of recurring themes. For one, players who are past their primes tend to be unwise investments in fantasy. While this may seem trivial, these players tend to be overpriced based on name-value and potential for volume. The dip in production tends to happen much faster than we predict, especially at the RB position.

Another important red flag to consider is touchdown dependency. We see players over-perform in fantasy due to an anomaly season in the touchdown department. This will result in them flying up draft boards in the subsequent year. Nevertheless, it’s essential to acknowledge the potential for touchdown regression and the resulting decrease in fantasy production.

For this exercise, we will analyze players available in each round of a 12-team, half-PPR league. Here are fantasy football draft picks to avoid in each round.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid

Round 10: Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

Much has been said about the Chargers’ new regime and their desire to run the ball at a high rate. Given Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s respective track records, it’s clear the ground game will be the primary focus in this offense. Herbert will not throw the ball nearly as often in 2024. The underwhelming WR core at his disposal will make it challenging to maintain a high level of efficiency on this limited volume. We’ve already seen Herbert struggle to deliver for fantasy when his surrounding group of weapons is depleted. During the 2023 season, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams struggled with long-term injuries. Per PFF, this resulted in Herbert posting the lowest adjusted completion percentage (74.7%) of his career.

Round 11: Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)

The offseason additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon will have a huge impact on Dalton Schultz’s receiving volume. At best, he is currently the fourth receiving option behind the Texans’ electric trifecta of receivers. Over the years, Schultz has earned a reputation for being a fantasy-viable asset mostly due to touchdown production. He’s scored an impressive 22 touchdowns in the past three seasons. That said, it’d be unwise to bank on something as unpredictable as receiving touchdowns. If and when touchdown regression comes into play, Schultz will not be worth his current 11th-round price.

Round 12: Gabe Davis (WR – JAX)

Like Schultz, Gabe Davis is the fourth receiving option in his offense. He’ll play a secondary role behind Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram. Across his entire career, Davis has primarily been used as a deep threat. His career average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.9 yards, per PFF, is indicative of this. However, the team invested first-round draft capital in Thomas Jr. to play the field-stretching role. This would suggest Davis was signed as a depth piece rather than an integral part of the offense. Another red flag in Davis’ fantasy profile is the touchdown dependency he showed during his many seasons in Buffalo. Trevor Lawrence, Davis’ new QB in Jacksonville, is yet to surpass 25 passing touchdowns in his career.

Round 13: Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)

The 2023 season was a tale of two halves for Adam Thielen. He surprised many and got off to a scorching hot start, averaging 72.6 receiving yards per game in the first eight weeks. From then on, Thielen started to show signs of age and attrition. His production declined drastically as he averaged 43.3 yards for the remainder of the season. The Panthers’ organization thus felt the need to bolster the WR position. Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson were brought in to reduce Thielen’s workload. Thielen’s early 2023 fantasy success was entirely dependent on incredible volume. These targets will now be distributed elsewhere in this offense.

Round 14: Derek Carr (QB – NO)

Derek Carr was extremely ineffective as a passer in 2023. Among QBs with a minimum of 200 dropbacks, he ranked 28th in PFF’s big-time throw percentage. Carr never seemed to find his form in New Orleans, whether it was due to a lack of weapons or a porous Saints offensive line. At 33 years old, it’s fair to question whether Carr’s days as a bona fide franchise QB are numbered. Once more, he’ll be tasked to move the ball downfield despite having a very underwhelming group of pass-catching options. The departure of Michael Thomas and the continued decline in Alvin Kamara‘s efficiency certainly won’t help his case.

Round 15: Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

Bucky Irving may seem like an interesting hand-cuff as the primary backup RB on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, it’s hard to envision Irving being a fantasy-viable asset at any point during his rookie season. He’ll struggle to earn a role alongside Rachaad White. Irving’s calling card in college was his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Unfortunately for him, this is also Rachaad White’s biggest strong suit. Even if the starter were to get injured, Irving’s slender frame suggests he won’t be able to withstand a full workload. At 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds, the Bucs are likely to employ a tandem with the likes of Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker if White gets injured.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target

Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)

NFL Justin Herbert Keenan Allen Mike Williams Dalton Schultz Joe Mixon Gabe Davis Christian Kirk Brian Thomas Jr. Evan Engram Trevor Lawrence Adam Thielen Xavier Legette Diontae Johnson Derek Carr Michael Thomas Alvin Kamara Bucky Irving Rachaad White Chase Edmonds Sean Tucker