When players change NFL teams it often generates a lot of hype and excitement as fantasy managers spend time trying to decipher what it might mean for the individual as well as both the team they depart and the team they join.

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In this article, we’ll explore how running backs have performed over the last three seasons when joining new teams via free agency or a trade. In the rest of this series, we’ll look at tight ends, quarterbacks and wide receivers.

How to Value Players on New Teams

At the running back position, there have been some success stories, but with the market depressed for the position there have also been plenty of nightmares. With running backs, it’s slightly easier to quantify success quickly because they have to earn opportunities on the field. If their yards per carry is below 4.0 they likely weren’t playing too well, and if their yards per game was below 40 then they likely weren’t doing anything for your fantasy team.

2021

Mike Davis – After having bounced around for a few years, Mike Davis landed in Atlanta with what was perceived as a clear runway to a massive workload. After some particularly muscular pictures of his leg muscles got fantasy Twitter into a spin, Davis’ average draft position (ADP) got out of control, seeing him drafted in the top 50 picks. Davis averaged fewer than 30 yards per game rushing for a below-average 3.6 yards per carry and epitomizing the RB Dead Zone. It would be Davis’s last chance as a featured back.

James Conner – Landing in Arizona, James Conner immediately set a career-high in touchdowns with 18 and finished as the PPR RB7. Conner paired with Kyler Murray was a big upgrade from late-career Ben Roethlisberger. Thanks to Murray’s dual-threat abilities defenses consistently failed to account for both.

Kenyan Drake – In 2020, Kenyan Drake stacked up over 1,090 all-purpose yards, parlaying this into a two-year, $11 million contract with the Raiders. Unfortunately for Drake, Josh Jacobs was the preferred option in the rushing and receiving game, leaving little for Drake. Drake acquitted himself well when called upon, rushing for 4.0 yards per carry, this was just a poor landing spot.

Jamaal Williams – When Jamaal Williams left free agency there was a little bit of a surprise when Detroit made him an early priority. Their faith would go on to be rewarded with Williams setting a career-high 46.2 rushing yards per game, an increase of 12 from his previous best. Williams scored a massive 17 rushing touchdowns in his second season with the Lions.

Mark Ingram – Coming off two strong years in Baltimore, Mark Ingram’s age-32 season in Houston wasn’t a classic, with him running for 3.5 yards per carry. Ingram was eventually traded back to the Saints with whom he’d spent much of his career. Ingram played a role but was too old to make a real difference at this point in his career.

2022

Raheem Mostert – Having spent six years in San Francisco, it was no surprise to see Raheem Mostert reunite with Mike McDaniel in Miami when he took over. Mostert’s yards per carry dipped slightly to 4.8 yards, a very respectable figure, but most importantly, he set a career-high 1,093 total yards. Staying within the same scheme despite the move undoubtedly helped Mostert.

Chase Edmonds – Mostert’s success came at the expense of Chase Edmonds, who was largely viewed as the RB1 in Miami after they paid him a two-year, $12.1 million contract. Edmonds was such a poor fit in the scheme that he managed only 32 touches in five games before being traded to the Broncos. He shined in Arizona where defenses had to account for Kyler Murray, but washed out in every other spot since defenses could defend the run easier.

2023

Miles Sanders – After a successful stint in Philadelphia, Miles Sanders was reunited with Duce Staley in Carolina, a team needing an every-down running back. The trouble was Miles Sanders isn’t an every-down running back and he failed to make up for a miserable offensive line, posting career lows in yards per carry (3.3), yards per game (27.0) and scoring the second-fewest touchdowns of his career (one). Sanders got the job due to familiarity but his lack of ability to adapt to a new scheme killed his fantasy value immediately.

David Montgomery – Moving from the Bears with their substandard offensive line to the Lions with their excellent offensive line was a clear upgrade. Even with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft, it seemed clear Montgomery could return value, falling into the same goal-line role that saw Jamaal Williams score 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022. Montgomery set career-highs in rushing yards per game (72.5), rushing yards per carry (4.6) and total touchdowns (13). The upgraded offense was as clear of an advantage as expected.

Dalvin Cook – The Vikings knew Dalvin Cook was experiencing the first signs of age-related decline and cut bait before it became a bigger issue for them, but this didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers from convincing the supposed people in charge of the Jets he could be the piece they needed to push for a Super Bowl. Cook was rancid in comparison to Breece Hall, managing a miserable 3.2 yards per carry before eventually being cut. Cook faired no better in Baltimore despite a better offensive line and scheme.

Samaje Perine – Samaje Perine finished 2022 strong and received identical contract offers from the Bengals and Broncos, opting to join the Broncos due to Sean Payton’s love for having at least two backs in a system. Unfortunately for Perine, it became more than two with undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin eating into the work. Perine posted a respectable 4.6 yards per carry, but his 14.4 yards per game dropped below what he managed in Cincinnati when his role was more limited.

Jamaal Williams – It was surprising when the Lions elected to move on from Williams after scoring 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022, but the chance to get younger with David Montgomery made sense. Williams landed in New Orleans but never rediscovered the magic, dropping to a career-low with 3.0 yards per carry and 23 rushing yards per game. The scheme, poor offensive line and lack of opportunities severely capped Williams’ ability to show any upside.

Ezekiel Elliott – Everyone who had watched the Cowboys in 2022 knew Ezekiel Elliott was on the downward curve of his career and it was no surprise to see Elliott set a career-low 3.4 yards per carry. Aging running backs need good offensive lines and running schemes, neither of which Elliott found in New England.

Devin Singletary – Having left Buffalo after four seasons, Devin Singletary landed behind Dameon Pierce in Houston but quickly usurped him after Pierce struggled with the scheme. Singletary’s 4.3 yards per carry was a career-high as were his 898 rushing yards. Returning to a scheme he’s familiar with with the Giants, Singletary should continue to be a solid, if unspectacular, running back for fantasy.

D’Onta Foreman – Coming off a strong year in Carolina, D’Onta Foreman landed with the Bears but as part of a three-way committee. It’s hard for any running back to overcome that.

Running Back Conclusions

The main consideration for running back success when moving teams is how clear the path to touches is. D’Onta Foreman failed because he was blocked by two other running backs the Bears liked, meanwhile, James Conner was paid to be a featured back and succeeded as such. We must also consider scheme and environment, both of which were key for David Montgomery‘s 2023 success and Raheem Mostert‘s 2022 success.

Out of the 2024 running backs on the move, Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary, Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones look best placed for immediate success.

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