The biggest dramas in the NFL and fantasy football often revolve around off-the-field issues more than what takes place between the uprights. Player contracts are front and center in this drama with a never-ending cycle of players needing to be paid and wanting to maximize what can be a short window to earn the most they can. This is something real NFL fans and fantasy football fanatics alike follow given the repercussions.
In this article, we’ll look back over the last three years to look at player performance before and after securing new contracts. This should give us an idea of what to expect from top players heading into 2024 who have signed new deals recently.
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Fantasy Football Performance Data After Getting Contract
The stats we’ll concentrate on are PPR points per game (PPG), yards per game and touchdowns per game. For quarterbacks, both rushing yards and passing yards are included. For other players, total scrimmage yards are combined.
2021
Fantasy Football Performance Data After Getting Contract
| PPG 2020 | PPG 2021 | Difference | Yards/gm 2020 | Yards/gm 2021 | Difference | TDs/gm 2020 | TDs/gm 2021 | Difference | ||
| Courtland Sutton | 4yr $60m | 9.6 | 9.2 | -0.4 | 66 | 47.7 | -18.3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Dak Prescott | 4yr $160m | 27.1 | 19.3 | -7.8 | 392 | 286.6 | -105.4 | 2.6 | 2.17 | -0.43 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4yr $57m | 10.6 | 11 | 0.4 | 47.6 | 55.3 | 7.7 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.00 |
| Gus Edwards | 2yr $9m | 8 | 0 | -8 | 52.1 | 0 | -52.1 | 0.4 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 6yr $258m | 25.1 | 23.7 | -1.4 | 316.7 | 304.3 | -12.4 | 2.9 | 2.48 | -0.42 |
| Logan Thomas | 3yr $24m | 10.9 | 8.9 | -2 | 42.5 | 32.7 | -9.8 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Mark Andrews | 4yr $66m | 12.6 | 17.8 | 5.2 | 51.8 | 79.8 | 28 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.02 |
| Nick Chubb | 3yr $36m | 17.4 | 16 | -1.4 | 100.8 | 105.6 | 4.8 | 1 | 0.69 | -0.31 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3yr $18.6m | 12 | 7 | -5 | 53 | 35.4 | -17.6 | 0.47 | 0.19 | -0.28 |
| Robbie Anderson | 2yr $29.5m | 14.5 | 7.5 | -7 | 71.4 | 31.6 | -39.8 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Tim Patrick | 3yr $34m | 11 | 9.4 | -1.6 | 49.7 | 42.6 | -7.1 | 0.43 | 0.33 | -0.10 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4yr $69m | 15.5 | 14.3 | -1.2 | 64.3 | 72.3 | 8 | 0.53 | 0.40 | -0.13 |
*Gus Edwards missed the entire 2021 season
In 2021, 12 fantasy-relevant players got paid noteworthy new contracts. Among them, Mark Andrews was the best performer the following season, going from 12.6 PPG to 17.8 and adding an additional 28 yards per game. Josh Allen‘s contract was by far the biggest that year. A few years later, the six-year, $258 million deal looks like a complete bargain. Allen’s performance did slip slightly in 2022 but he still finished as the QB3 in PPG and the QB2 in total points.
Out of the 12 players in this sample, 10 (83.3%) saw a regression in their fantasy points the following season. Three of the 12 saw PPG dropoffs of five or more points. This number would be four if we included Gus Edwards, but it seems harsh to include a player who missed the entire season due to an ACL injury.
Robbie Anderson (now known as Robbie Chosen) saw the most severe dropoff in skill position yardage, dropping from 71.4 per game to 39.8, while Dak Prescott dropped by 105.4 total yards as he regressed to more pedestrian numbers in 2021.
2022
Fantasy Football Performance Data After Getting Contract
| PPG 2021 | PPG 2022 | Difference | Yards/gm 2021 | Yards/gm 2022 | Difference | TDs/gm 2021 | TDs/gm 2022 | Difference | ||
| Aaron Rodgers | 3yr $150m | 21.3 | 14.3 | -7 | 271.1 | 223.4 | -47.7 | 2.5 | 1.66 | -0.84 |
| AJ Brown | 4yr $100m | 13.7 | 17.9 | 4.2 | 67.6 | 87.6 | 20 | 0.33 | 0.69 | 0.36 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2yr $39m | 15.1 | 10.3 | -4.8 | 68.8 | 50 | -18.8 | 0.4 | 0.17 | -0.23 |
| Chris Godwin | 3yr $60m | 17.3 | 15.2 | -2.1 | 80.3 | 69.5 | -10.8 | 0.43 | 0.21 | -0.22 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3yr $80m | 25.8 | 22.4 | -3.4 | 114.3 | 96 | -18.3 | 0.94 | 0.78 | -0.16 |
| Darren Waller | 3yr $51m | 12.9 | 11.3 | -1.6 | 64.3 | 50.4 | -13.9 | 0.2 | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| Davante Adams | 5yr $140m | 22.2 | 20.3 | -1.9 | 99.9 | 90.1 | -9.8 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.15 |
| David Njoku | 4yr $56m | 7 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 31 | 44.5 | 13.5 | 0.27 | 0.23 | -0.04 |
| Dawson Knox | 4yr $52m | 11.1 | 9 | -2.1 | 38.4 | 36 | -2.4 | 0.64 | 0.36 | -0.28 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3yr $71m | 20.7 | 13.7 | -7 | 108.7 | 70 | -38.7 | 0.87 | 0.42 | -0.45 |
| Derek Carr | 3yr $121m | 15.1 | 14.6 | -0.5 | 295.4 | 241.5 | -53.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Deshaun Watson* | 5yr $230m | 22.9 | 13.6 | -9.3 | 297.2 | 200.6 | -96.6 | 2 | 1.2 | -0.8 |
| DJ Moore | 3yr $61m | 13.8 | 12.3 | -1.5 | 69.1 | 58.2 | -10.9 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| DK Metcalf | 3yr $72m | 14.6 | 13.7 | -0.9 | 57.2 | 63 | 5.8 | 0.75 | 0.38 | -0.37 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2yr $32m | 15.1 | 6.6 | -8.5 | 64.5 | 29.6 | -34.9 | 0.44 | 0.11 | -0.33 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1yr $35m | 18.6 | 17.4 | -1.2 | 272.4 | 276.2 | 3.8 | 2.07 | 1.93 | -0.14 |
| Kyler Murray | 5yr $230m | 21.7 | 18.2 | -3.5 | 302.6 | 253.3 | -49.3 | 2.18 | 1.57 | -0.61 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4yr $160m | 19.5 | 12 | -7.5 | 293.2 | 232.9 | -60.3 | 2.4 | 1.21 | -1.19 |
| Michael Gallup | 5yr $57m | 10.2 | 8 | -2.2 | 49.4 | 31.8 | -17.6 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| Russell Wilson | 5yr $242m | 16.8 | 14.5 | -2.3 | 234.9 | 250.1 | 15.2 | 1.78 | 1.11 | -0.67 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4yr $96m | 16.4 | 19.5 | 3.1 | 71.5 | 88.1 | 16.6 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 0.11 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3yr $68m | 12.5 | 13.3 | 0.8 | 60.8 | 71.6 | 10.8 | 0.31 | 0.25 | -0.06 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4yr $120m | 18.5 | 21.1 | 2.6 | 83.3 | 107.4 | 24.1 | 0.56 | 0.5 | -0.06 |
| Zach Ertz | 3yr $31m | 10.3 | 11.6 | 1.3 | 42.7 | 40.6 | -2.1 | 0.31 | 0.4 | 0.09 |
*Deshaun Watson 2020 stats, not 2021
2022 was a massive year for players getting paid with the money starting to flow easier after the down years during Covid-19. Twenty-four fantasy-relevant players were paid substantially in this window with the wide receiver market booming and Deshaun Watson setting an NFL record for guaranteed money received.
A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs thrived after signing new contracts, increasing their PPG by at least 2.5 points in the following season. Hunter Renfrow disappointed after a 2021 season where he caught 103 of his 128 targets, but the combination of Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams curtailed his upswing. He dropped 8.5 PPG and 34.9 yards per game, finishing the year with 708 fewer receiving yards than in 2021. Cooper Kupp also regressed, which was to be expected after having 145 receptions for 1,947 yards in 2021. Nobody expected the level of team-wide regression the Rams went through post-Super Bowl, which also swept up Matthew Stafford with him regressing in every category.
The quarterback market exploded and Deshaun Watson was front and center of this, coming off not playing in 2020 as he demanded a trade and then got embroiled in accusations of sexual assault. For this study, we looked at his 2020 stats instead and it’s clear just how bad Watson was when he eventually started in Cleveland, dropping 9.3 PPG, 96.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. Elsewhere at the quarterback position, Aaron Rodgers regressed almost as hard coming off an MVP campaign — he felt the loss of Davante Adams and dropped 7.0 PPG. Russell Wilson started his post-Seattle career with more yards per game in Denver, but touchdowns were harder to come by without Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, so his fantasy points dipped by 2.3 PPG as he tried to overcome Nathaniel Hackett’s poor offense.
Out of the 24 players in this sample, six (25%) increased their PPG positively, while eight (33%) saw theirs dip by at least three points.
2023
Fantasy Football Performance Data After Getting Contract
| PPG 2022 | PPG 2023 | Difference | Yards/gm 2022 | Yards/gm 2023 | Difference | TDs/gm 2022 | TDs/gm 2023 | Difference | ||
| Aaron Rodgers | 3yr $112m | 14.3 | 0 | -14.3 | 223.4 | 0 | -223.4 | 1.66 | 0 | -1.66 |
| Cole Kmet | 4yr $50m | 8.2 | 10.9 | 2.7 | 31 | 42.5 | 11.5 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 4yr $160m | 18.1 | 9.5 | -8.6 | 244.6 | 185.8 | -58.8 | 1.34 | 0.47 | -0.87 |
| DeVante Parker | 2yr $11m | 7 | 5.9 | -1.1 | 41.8 | 32.3 | -9.5 | 0.09 | 0 | -0.09 |
| Evan Engram | 3yr $41m | 10.6 | 12.9 | 2.3 | 47 | 55.3 | 8.3 | 0.25 | 0.19 | -0.06 |
| Geno Smith | 3yr $75m | 18.1 | 14.8 | -3.3 | 274 | 254.2 | -19.8 | 1.86 | 1.37 | -0.49 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5yr $255m | 26.6 | 22.3 | -4.3 | 303.5 | 275.3 | -28.2 | 2.53 | 2.34 | -0.19 |
| Joe Burrow | 5yr $275m | 22.6 | 14.7 | -7.9 | 300.5 | 239.7 | -60.8 | 2.63 | 1.5 | -1.13 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3yr $42m | 13.3 | 14.3 | 1 | 91.3 | 77.6 | -13.7 | 0.36 | 0.78 | 0.42 |
| Jordan Love | 1yr $13m | 2.9 | 18.8 | 15.9 | 48.5 | 255.7 | 207.2 | 0.3 | 2.15 | 1.85 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1yr $11.7m | 20.1 | 13.9 | -6.2 | 125.2 | 84.7 | -40.5 | 0.75 | 0.46 | -0.29 |
| Justin Herbert | 5yr $262m | 16.4 | 18 | 1.6 | 287.7 | 258.6 | -29.1 | 1.4 | 1.73 | 0.33 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2yr $12m | 8.8 | 7.6 | -1.2 | 32.5 | 27.3 | -5.2 | 0.47 | 0.33 | -0.14 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5yr $260m | 19.7 | 20.7 | 1 | 250.5 | 281.2 | 30.7 | 1.65 | 1.81 | 0.16 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1yr $10m | 17.8 | 15.3 | -2.5 | 103.1 | 88.1 | -15 | 0.63 | 0.62 | -0.01 |
| TJ Hockenson | 4yr $66m | 13.3 | 14.6 | 1.3 | 56.1 | 64 | 7.9 | 0.38 | 0.33 | -0.05 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2yr $17m | 9 | 7.2 | -1.8 | 36.7 | 33 | -3.7 | 0.19 | 0.13 | -0.06 |
The quarterback market continued to explode in 2023. Teams splashed the cash freely, expecting a boom in the salary cap due to incoming TV deals. Seventeen fantasy-relevant players received noteworthy contracts.
Aaron Rodgers again regressed, but it’s hard to blame him when his Achilles only held up for a handful of plays before his season was curtailed. Joe Burrow and Daniel Jones both saw injury-related regressions — each dropping by at least 7.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson increased his PPG by 1.0, adding an extra 30.7 yards per game under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. This was also the first season Jackson played in full in three years.
Geno Smith was unable to follow up an incredibly efficient 2022 season, which always looked like an outlier. While his contract was a happy story for him, it was always structured with easy exits for the Seahawks.
Josh Jacobs signed a one-year deal in place of the franchise tag, as did Saquon Barkley. Both running backs were unhappy with the arrangement and found themselves victims of poor offenses with bad quarterback play. It’s fair to question if they could have been more effective with better surrounding situations, but it’s also hard to ignore that running back play declines quickly as players get older.
Fantasy Football Value After Contracts: Conclusions
Out of the 53 players in this sample, the average following season PPG saw a 2.04 drop from the year before signing a new contract. Thirty-eight players regressed negatively and 15 positively. It’s hard not to look at those numbers and expect some level of regression from players once they get paid, but it would also not be naive to take things on a player-by-player basis.
Injuries play such a large part in fantasy football and trying to predict them is a foolish exercise, but they also have had a large impact in this study. In dynasty, we can leverage new contracts to open a sell window on a player. Based on this evidence it might not be a bad idea to do so. In redraft, overinflating a player’s average draft position (ADP) just because they got paid seems like a poor idea.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target
- Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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- DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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