Finding wide receiver values in the middle rounds can supercharge your fantasy football roster to new heights and make your squad one to contend with in your league. In the middle rounds, you’ll usually find wide receivers on offenses projected to be below average, undervalued veteran receivers, rookies and wide receivers with undefined roles.
Last season, you could have drafted Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans and Zay Flowers from this approximate range of receivers and one or more were likely to propel your fantasy football team even further. Who could be the 2024 receivers you need to launch your fantasy roster into the stratosphere?
Finding wide receiver values in the middle rounds can supercharge your fantasy football roster to new heights and make your squad one to contend with in your league. In the middle rounds, you’ll usually find wide receivers on offenses projected to be below average, undervalued veteran receivers, rookies and wide receivers with undefined roles.
Last season, you could have drafted Brandon Aiyuk, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans and Zay Flowers from this approximate range of receivers and one or more were likely to propel your fantasy football team even further. Who could be the 2024 receivers you need to launch your fantasy roster into the stratosphere?
Tank Dell was a late-round revelation in fantasy football last season, sporting a 2.22 yards per route run (YPRR) and 23% targets per route run (TPRR) before a leg injury halted his breakout 2023 campaign. This great season came after reports quarterback C.J. Stroud told the Texans’ front office he wanted the team to select Dell, where Stroud complimented how Dell runs routes and how he plays football.
The Texans pushed in their chips this past offseason when the team acquired Stefon Diggs from the Bills, adding him to the trio of Dell and Nico Collins. While the Texans’ pass rate over expected (PROE) was league-average last season, year two of Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik should increase the 11 personnel used by Houston and increase the amount of passing in all situations.
Player
YPRR
TPRR
wTPRR
aDOT
Tank Dell
2.22
23.1%
0.66
14.4
Nico Collins
3.10
26.0%
0.68
11.5
Stefon Diggs (w/ Buffalo)
1.99
26.8%
0.69
10.8
So why is Dell currently ranked as WR29 in FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR)? Well, his leg injury at the end of 2023 may have something to do with it, but the target distribution between these three excellent receivers is still very much in question heading into 2024. With each receiver’s peripheral metrics pretty close to each other in the chart above, any one of Collins, Diggs or Dell could lead the Texans in fantasy scoring and it wouldn’t be surprising; considering Collins (WR7), Diggs (WR14) and Dell (WR19) were all top-20 wide receivers in fantasy points per game last season.
When in doubt with a trio of elite pass-catchers, draft the cheapest one. Dell being a fantasy WR1 for 2024 is definitely in the range of outcomes. If he hadn’t broken his fibula, he could have already achieved that.
Keeping with the theme of one part of a trio that should also improve their standing in fantasy football, the Chicago Bears not only drafted quarterback Caleb Williams first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, but also drafted Rome Odunze with the ninth overall selection and acquired Keenan Allen from the Los Angeles Chargers. Allen should immediately give Williams a comfortable target to throw to. While Allen is a bit older heading into his age-32 season, he’s still going very strong.
Allen has been a model of consistency over the last few seasons, culminating with one of the best seasons across the board in 2023. Allen set career highs with a 27.5% TPRR, a .69 weighted targets per route run (wTPRR) that factors in air yards and his highest YPRR (2.36) since 2017. Usually with receivers that crest the age-30 mark, you start to see efficiency dip in all of these metrics as they start to dip closer to the line of scrimmage. Allen still kept a healthy 9.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and continues to buck Father Time’s death grip for another season, sporting the NFL’s top Open Score among all wide receivers in 2023, per ESPN Stats and Info.
Top 10 Career Targets Per Game Leaders (active players)
????Justin Jefferson 9.6 ????Keenan Allen 9.4 ????Puka Nacua 9.4 ????DeAndre Hopkins 9.3 ????Garrett Wilson 9.3 ????Davante Adams 9.1 ????Ja'Marr Chase 9.0 ????Michael Thomas 9.0 ????Amon-Ra St. Brown 8.8 ????Stefon Diggs 8.7
With the Bears sporting DJ Moore, Odunze and Allen, the Bears have stocked the cupboard full for Williams to give him the best chance to succeed in his rookie season. Unlike the Texans’ receivers above, the average draft position (ADP) values for all three wide receivers are pretty affordable, with Allen being the best value in terms of production to draft cost as the WR31 in ECR. At his cost on draft day, people will be scared of Allen’s age and multiple mouths to feed in an ascending Chicago passing game. However, Allen represents one of the best values at his position, where he finished as last season’s WR3 with 21.5 fantasy points per game. Scoop him up and continue reaping the benefits.
Lost in the resurgence of Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ passing game under offensive coordinator Dave Canales was Chris Godwin’s re-emergence from multiple injuries over the last couple of seasons. After an ACL tear towards the end of 2021, Godwin returned for Week 1 in 2022 but then suffered a strained hamstring in that game. Godwin returned in Week 4, but it clearly took him quite a bit to get back on track from those injuries in terms of getting downfield.
Season
aDOT (average depth of target)
2017
13.2
2018
12.8
2019
10.3
2020
10.1
2021
7.6
2022
5.7
2023
10.3
2023 saw a return to form for Godwin getting downfield with a 10.3-yard aDOT — perfectly in time with his pre-2021 numbers. Godwin’s numbers looked right in line with his previous full seasons but one thing: His lack of slot usage. Since 2019, Godwin had been a primary slot receiver with no less than 63% utilization in the slot from 2019-2022, but last season saw him only run 37% of snaps in the slot — Godwin’s lowest since 2018.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on the team’s plan to play Chris Godwin more in the slot this season:
“He’s an inside guy by nature. He can play outside, but he can make a living inside doing a bunch of things for us, and we plan to let him do a lot of things that he does best.”
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 21, 2024
New offensive coordinator Liam Coen and wide receivers coach Bryan McClendon both confirmed Godwin would be moving back to the slot, where Godwin has been the most productive during his career. While Godwin finished as fantasy’s WR28 in fantasy points per game, he could have been a lot better with some touchdown luck. If a handful of 26 receiving touchdowns from the rest of the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers were added on to Godwin’s total of just two in 2023, the outlook may be a lot rosier for him heading into 2024.
At WR35 in ECR, Godwin’s slot role plus touchdown regression has him in a great spot to return massive value and potentially return to WR1 territory for the first time since 2019 — Godwin’s first season as a full-time slot player.
Kevin Tompkins is an ideological drafter who has "never drafted a running back, not ever". While that may or may not be true, he has won the King's Classic Auction League in 2022 and currently creates content for RotoBaller, Fantasy in Frames, and FantasyPros.
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