Derek Brown | Fri, Jun 14th 2024, 7:10am EDT

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver & Running Back ADP Battles (2024)

Every fantasy football season, we face decision points in drafts. How are we analyzing this backfield? That receiver room? Who do we like, love, and hate at their fantasy football ADP?

This year is no different. Numerous situations across all 32 NFL depth charts could be pivotal to deciding the fate of the 2024 fantasy football season. Find out which direction are analyst’s compasses are pointing this year.

Who Would You Rather? (2024 Fantasy Football)

(All ADP referenced courtesy of Underdog Fantasy)

Washington Commanders RBs

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) | ADP: RB33 (110.3 Overall)

Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS) | ADP: RB38 (123.8 Overall)

I want the goal line back in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, and I think that is Robinson Jr. The touchdown equity that the goal-line back has in his offense is insane. In 2020, Kenyan Drake was third among running backs in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. In the next season, James Conner ranked second in this same statistical category. Robinson Jr. should gobble up touchdowns in 2024. – DBro

Ekeler looked like he was out of battery power last year. I’m not betting on a full recharge for an undersized 29-year-old back. Robinson isn’t special, but neither was Alfred Morris, who gave Washington 1,613 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 2012, when he was paired with an ultra-mobile rookie quarterback named Robert Griffin III. Running quarterbacks tend to spike the rushing efficiency of their running backs, and Robinson stands to benefit from the rushing ability of the Commanders’ rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels. – Fitz

Anthony Lynn is the new run game coordinator for the Commanders and could similarly deploy Austin Ekeler-Brian Robinson to Ekeler-Melvin Gordon circa 2019. Give me those TDs versus Ekeler attached to a mobile QB, which is not great for his pass-catching. B-Rob was RB22 last season and the RB4 through 11 weeks. 11th in ppg. Then he got hurt with a hamstring injury. Still might be scratching the surface entering Year 3. – Erickson

Pittsburgh Steelers RBs

Najee Harris (RB – PIT) | ADP: RB20 (84.3 Overall)

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) | ADP: RB25 (89.9 Overall)

Warren by a mile here. Warren is one of the best running backs in the NFL on a per-touch basis. Yep, I said it. Last year, he ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt, second in yards after contact per attempt, and ninth in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Add in that he’s the passing down back for Pittsburgh, and with Russell Wilson projected to start, it should lead to a ton of check-downs for Warren. Last year, Wilson led all quarterbacks in check-down rate. – DBro

This one is a tie for me. Najee is built for heavy-duty usage and has some pass-catching utility. There’s not a lot of sizzle to his game, but Najee is durable and dependable. Warren has more panache, but would he be able to maintain a high level of rushing efficiency if the Steelers gave him more than 8.8 carries a game? This isn’t going to be a dilemma for me, since I’ll probably be fading the Pittsburgh backfield altogether. I have no desire to subject myself to the RB usage whims of Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who insisted on giving significant mileage to family sedan Tyler Allgeier in Atlanta last year despite having high-performance sportscar Bijan Robinson readily available. – Fitz

There’s no RB that has done less with the volume he’s gotten the past two seasons than Najee Harris. Harris has been top-10 in touches the last two seasons but has not cracked the top-12 fantasy RBs overall as the RB15 (2022) and RB26 (2023), averaging the same points per game as Jaylen Warren this past season (10) Weeks 1-17. Sure it might be “scary” to fade Harris with more volume coming his way in Arthur Smith’s offense. But if any RB will fail despite the volume he gets, it’s Najee. – Erickson

Miami Dolphins RBs

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) | ADP: RB7 (24.5 Overall)

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) | ADP: RB28 (97 Overall)

I’m siding with the youth here. Both backs were insanely efficient last year, and I expect each to be awesome in that regard again in 2024, but with Mostert’s advancing age, I can’t project him to stay healthy nor retain his lead-back status for the entire season. Last year, Achane ranked second in missed tackles forced per attempt while leading all backs (minimum 100 carries per Fantasy Points Data) in yards after contact per attempt. – DBro

Forced to make a choice, I’ll pay the freight for Achane, who crackles with electricity every time he touches the ball. No, he’s not going to get a heavy workload, But Achane’s combination of speed and contact balance is something extraordinary — a throwback to Warrick Dunn. If you’re willing to take Jahmyr Gibbs at the Round 1/2 turn, why wouldn’t you be willing to draft Achane at the Round 2/3 turn when he’s like to have a timeshare role similar to Gibbs’? It’s reasonable to believe Gibbs’ is better, but Achane’s 7.8 yards per carry in 2023 suggest he’s awfully good, too. Mostert certainly offers value at an early-ninth-round ADP, but that value is obviously fragile for a 32-year-old RB with an extensive injury history. – Fitz

Fantasy Football doesn’t have to be hard. Which regression do you want to bet against? An injury-prone 32-year-old RB coming off 20-plus TDs OR an uber-talented second-year in De’Von Achane who posted top-6 fantasy finishes in 5 of his 10 games played? In his second NFL game, he rushed for 200 yards. Over 100 in his next two games then got hurt. – Erickson

Detroit Lions RBs

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET) | ADP: RB4 (12.5 Overall)

David Montgomery (RB – DET) | ADP: RB18 (74.3 Overall)

I’ll pay the iron price for Gibbs versus swallowing up the value of Montgomery. Last year, after Montgomery returned from injury, Gibbs was the clear leadback among the two. In Weeks 10-18, Gibbs played 65.4% of the passing down snaps and 63.4% of the red zone snaps. Gibbs could retain this role in 2024. I want exposure to a player with that role and his talent. Last year, he ranked eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs to the moon. – DBro

From Week 10 through the end of the playoffs, with Gibbs and Montgomery both healthy, Gibbs averaged 11.3 carries and 2.9 catches a game. Montgomery averaged 15.2 carries a game last season (playoffs included) and isn’t going anywhere. Gibbs has enough juice to be a valuable fantasy asset even in a timeshare role, but he’s overpriced. Montgomery is appropriately priced. I’d be far more inclined to draft Montgomery at his current ADP. – Fitz

From Week 10 onward Gibbs averaged 15.1 points per game over his past 12 games to Monty’s 12.9. In addition to total snaps/touches being divided, the usage inside the 5-yard line was also distributed evenly. From inside the 5-yard line, Montgomery had 11 carries and 5 TDs versus Gibb’s 10 carries and 5 TDs. Considering Gibbs was already averaging nearly 15 points per game during his entire rookie season – placing him just outside the top-5 RBs – he can have a big Year 2 if he can carve out an even larger role in the offense, specifically in the red zone. – Erickson

Los Angeles Rams WRs

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) | ADP: WR6 (9.6 Overall)

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) | ADP: WR23 (32.4 Overall)

Puka Juice ALWAYS! Nacua could widen the divide between him and Kupp in his second season. When the two were both healthy and active last year, Nacua was the team’s clear WR1. In Weeks 5-17, Nacua led the duo in target share (25.4% vs. 23.4%), air-yard share (32.7% vs. 27.5%), yards per route run (2.61 vs. 2.08), end zone targets (nine vs. seven), and fantasy points per game (WR12 vs. WR23). Nacua could turn into vintage Kupp this year and become a top three wide receiver. – DBro

Kupp turns 31 on June 15 and has missed 13 games the last two seasons. He’s a risky investment at this stage of his career. Puka’s superb rookie season was no fluke. He’s an advanced route runner who inflicts heavy damage after the catch. I’d rather get Puka early in the second round late in the first, but he’s still a better investment than Kupp. – Fitz

The future is now…old man. – Erickson

Chicago Bears WRs

D.J. Moore (WR – CHI) | ADP: WR21 (28.7 Overall)

Keenan Allen (WR – CHI) | ADP: WR32 (53.4 Overall)

Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) | ADP: WR38 (65.8 Overall)

I’ll take the cheapest option in this wide receiver room, and that’s Odunze. Odunze could start slow out the gate flanked by Moore and Allen, but he could evolve into a stretch-run league winner, especially if Moore or Allen miss any time. Odunze is a wonderfully talented player who drew a 24.3% target share in his final season at Washington while ranking 18th in yards per route run and eighth in receiving grade (per PFF). I wouldn’t be shocked if he ascends in his rookie season. – DBro

Moore has averaged 81 catches and 1,155 yards over the last five seasons despite playing with a laundry list of below-average quarterbacks. At 27, Moore is squarely in the prime of his career, and Caleb Williams will probably be the best QB he’s ever played with. I don’t want to shade Allen or Odunze, either of whom could shine with an ample supply of targets, but Moore is my favorite Chicago receiver. – Fitz

D.J. Moore’s strong efficiency marks will likely be sustained based on the favorable looks he should get from opposing defenses given all the other weapons on the Bears offense and his own proven track record of efficient play. If there is a target squeeze overall, Moore can do the most with the fewest opportunities. – Erickson

Green Bay Packers WRs

Jayden Reed (WR – GB) | ADP: WR34 (56.9 Overall)

Christian Watson (WR – GB) | ADP: WR46 (78.8 Overall)

Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB) | ADP: WR60 (124.8 Overall)

I want the WR1 for the Packers, and it just so happens that he isn’t being drafted first among these three. Watson’s injury history (which is hopefully figured out for 2024) is pushing him down the board despite operating as the team’s clear WR1 last year. In Weeks 5-13 last season, when Watson was a full-time player, he led the team in target share, air-yard share, yards per route run, end zone targets, first-read share, and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Yes, essentially, he led Green Bay in every receiving category that matters. Draft Watson. – DBro

In games where Reed, Watson and Romeo Doubs were all healthy last season, Watson led that trio with a 27% target share. And with an average depth of target of 15.6 yards last year, Watson gets high-value targets. Watson is 6-foot-4, has sub-4.4 speed and scored eight touchdowns over a four-game span as a rookie. Hopefully Watson’s hamstring injuries are behind him after an offseason consultation with a specialist. Watson is far and away the best draft value from this group. I recommend fading Reed, who had a snap share of 70% or higher in only two of the 18 games he played last year (playoffs included). Reed also scored a touchdown on 13.3% of his touches last season — a TD rate that’s bound to regress. Wicks is intriguing, but it’s hard to tell what his role will be if we get a healthier Watson this season. – Fitz

I expect the target share to be flat across the board in Green Bay. Therefore, the WR to own in GB will need to separate with TDs. Christian Watson tallied 13 red-zone targets in just 9 games. Watson also had a whopping 15 end-zone targets during the regular and postseason combined (6th). – Erickson

Houston Texans WRs

Nico Collins (WR – HOU) | ADP: WR14 (20 Overall)

Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU) | ADP: WR20 (28.1 Overall)

Tank Dell (WR – HOU) | ADP: WR26 (37.3 Overall)

This one is tough. I can make a fabulous case for Dell, especially with the ADP divide, but I’m going with Collins. I want a player with elite upside, and Collins has it. Last year, he was 12th in targets per route run, second in yards per route run, and fifth in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). In his second season with C.J. Stroud under center and in this offensive system, Collins could put on a show. – DBro

With all three of these guys having top-40 ADPs, C.J. Stroud would have to throw for about 5,500 yards and 50 touchdowns to please every investor in a Texans wide receiver. I love Collins, but he’s egregiously overpriced. As alarming as Diggs’ late-season swoon was last season, his illustrious track record makes his ADP slightly less offensive than the Collins and Dell ADPs. But honestly, I’m not drafting any of these dudes until the prices come down. – Fitz

2021 Ohio State: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN led the team in targets/yards from the slot. C.J. Stroud loves Tank Dell. Therefore, I love Tank Dell, especially as the cheapest piece among the top 3 WRs. – Erickson

Kansas City Chiefs WRs

Hollywood Brown (WR – KC) | ADP: WR33 (54.7 Overall)

Xavier Worthy (WR – KC) | ADP: WR35 (61.4 Overall)

Rashee Rice (WR – KC) | ADP: WR47 (80.6 Overall)

This one is easy. I’m siding with Worthy. I’m avoiding the injury history questions of Brown and the suspension worries with Rice. Worthy could easily inherit the role that made Rice so valuable last year and never give it back. In two of Worthy’s final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 27 receivers in yards after the catch per reception (eighth, 27th). Also, he was in the 90th percentile in separation percentage in his final season, and we have a receiver that could rival Travis Kelce for the team lead in targets in year one (per PFF). – DBro

Give me Hollywood. He’s been inconsistent throughout his career, but I love that he’s going to be paired with Patrick Mahomes, who’ll fully utilize Brown’s elite speed. Worthy can fly, too, of course, but I suspect that the veteran will outrank the rookie in the target pecking order. Rice has a reasonable ADP when you bake in the inevitable suspension, but it’s possible that Rice’s target share shrivels now that Kansas City has dramatically upgraded what had been an abysmal WR corps. – Fitz

Would it shock if Marquise Brown is the “right” answer to open the season? Nope. But I can’t pass on the special upside we could get from Xavier Worthy even if he doesn’t fire in Week 1. – Erickson

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