With redraft season slowly coming into focus there is no better resource to use than the Expert Consensus Rankings, which combine over 100 rankings from fantasy football experts around the industry and can be averaged against Average Draft Position (ADP).
Doing this allows us to see the players that the consensus is ahead or behind ADP on and gives us an idea of whether these players are likely to be taken earlier or later in our drafts.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Consensus Rankings Analysis (Fantasy Football 2024)
Players the Rankings Like More than ADP
The Denver Broncos wide receiver room is wide open with very little proven quality behind Courtland Sutton, who continues to hold out in the hope of receiving a new contract from the team. Marvin Mims flashed in very small bursts in the 2023 season and Troy Franklin is an exciting but by no means can’t miss rookie, leaving the door open for Josh Reynolds, who has had eight top-30 weekly finishes in the last two seasons combined. The ECR is firmly ahead of ADP on Reynolds but he likely only gets drafted in deep leagues.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI): +33
The Eagles brought in Saquon Barkley with a clear intent to upgrade their running back position after D’Andre Swift failed to impress consistently in 2023. Along with adding Barkley, Will Shipley was drafted in the fourth round of the draft and many people seem ready to give up on Gainwell and move on to the shiny young rookie. Gainwell has rushed for over 4.3 yards per carry in each of his three seasons in the league and saw his role grow to a 41% snap share in 2023. He might be the better handcuff to own in the near term.
no cut blocking for Kenneth Gainwell! pic.twitter.com/tQDBSH4Bpj
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 17, 2023
The Chargers reunited Gus Edwards with Greg Roman in what felt like an obvious match, and the ECR is still high on Edwards after he scored the fourth most running back touchdowns in 2023 with 13. This one could go either way with Edwards the most reliable option in LA on a run-first offense, but we’ve also only seen Edwards play eight games without Lamar Jackson. In those eight games, his rushing touchdowns per game dropped from 0.42 per game to 0.12.
It was a fall from grace for Geno Smith in 2023 after finishing 2022 as a Pro Bowler with a QB rating of 105.3 (2nd highest) and the fourth-most passing touchdowns (30). Smith followed that up with 10 fewer touchdowns in 2024 and regressed in almost every category including a five percent dip in completion rate down from the impressive 69.8% in 2023 to 64.7%. New head coach Mike Macdonald brought in Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington, fresh off a National Championship run, having led one of the best offenses in college football for three years. There’s definitely potential for Smith to bounce back.
“Your QB is Geno Smith”
You can count on 1 hand how many QBs would survive Seattles atrocious OL and play calling in 2023
There are particularly two QBs in mind that are in the same tier as Geno, that have the perfect situation that hides their flaws perfectly https://t.co/AJXuVXf0dt pic.twitter.com/vsXB80EeHc
— ᴅᴏxx ⚡️ (@new_era72) June 21, 2024
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL): +16
The Falcons are set for dramatic changes this year and the expectation is that Bijan Robinson will have a larger opportunity share than the 52.1% he did in 2023, ranking 27th among all running backs. Robinson averaged 15.9 touches while Tyler Allgeier averaged 12.2, as he was a nuisance to both Robinson and fantasy managers. Allgeier warranted involvement though, averaging 1.9 yards per route run compared to Robinson’s 1.0, and managing an almost identical 3.0 rushing yards after contact compared to Robinson’s 3.1. If Allgeier stays involved he’ll have enough upside to be worth rostering in all formats as one of the league’s best handcuffs.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS): +16
Austin Ekeler is coming off an awful year by his standards where PFF graded him at a career-low 60.2, a massive drop from his career average of 79.6. Ekeler also saw his missed tackles forced per game drop from 4.2 in 2022 to 2.9 in 2023, along with setting a career-low in yards after contact per attempt, a number that has fallen for Ekeler for six straight seasons. Meanwhile, Brian Robinson Jr. has been steadily consistent for the Commanders, rushing for 4.1 yards per carry in 2023, and comes at a cheaper cost. Robinson might be quite simply the better back and available later.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): +14
It’s true that 93 catches over three seasons isn’t helping anyone in fantasy football, but Rashod Bateman is currently enjoying his first injury-free offseason of his NFL career (knock on wood). The Ravens moved on from Odell Beckham Jr. who was second on the team in targets last year (64), then didn’t spend any meaningful resources on adding another receiver. John Harbaugh and Eric DeCosta have both talked up how much they expect Bateman to take a leap, and if he does so then the ECR will be correct to be ahead of ADP.
“I think Rashod Bateman is going to take a big step.” pic.twitter.com/nKHnMh1iAx
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) February 27, 2024
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE): +13
The New England wide receiver room is wide open with only a few veterans of note. JuJu Smith-Schuster looked firmly cooked, posting the lowest receptions per game, yardage per game and yards per target of his career. Meanwhile, Kendrick Bourne is recovering from a torn ACL, leaving Demario Douglas as one of the most experienced players on the team.
Are we sleeping on Demario Douglas?
Dynasty ADP – WR67
Redraft ADP – WR76Averaged 10.5PPG – Week 7-16 last year
Uncertain WR room in NE
QB/Play Caller upgrade
ANd averaged almost 2 manufactured touches per game in 2023 pic.twitter.com/MlUZnDnz1N
— Rich – DynastyIsland ???? (@DynastyIsland) June 26, 2024
The Bengals make so few trades that it felt inevitable a status quo would descend upon Cincinnati for at least one more year, and while Higgins hasn’t played more than 14 games in any season in his career, he’s had over 900 yards in three of the four and scored six or more touchdowns in the same amount. This might be a case of the ECR being ahead of an eventual ADP rise.
From Weeks 15-17, White had 19.7 rush attempts per game, averaging the fourth-most rushing yards (95.0). He let fantasy managers by not scoring touchdowns, and he finished as the RB12, 16 and 16. If White can add more touchdowns in a slightly improved offense, he can easily pay off this ranking.
Players the Rankings Like Less than ADP
Perhaps it’s a case of too many mouths to feed for a rookie quarterback or perhaps people are wary of Keenan Allen’s hamstrings after he has managed only 23 games in the last two years, but either way, fading Allen is a risky proposition given that he just led the NFL in targets earned per game with 11.5.
Many people are completely burned out by the Kyle Pitts experience by this point in his career, despite the fact it’s not all his fault. In 2022 only 59% of Pitts’s targets were deemed catchable, way down from the league average of 79%, and despite increasing to 69% in 2023, it was still well below the league average. Pitts has a good quarterback for the first time in his NFL career and will be in a more pass-focused attack.
Top 5 Tight Ends by Percentage of Routes Run from a WR Spot (min 25 targets)
????Mike Gesicki – 89.8%
????Mark Andrews – 89.4%
????Kyle Pitts – 84.9%
????Logan Thomas – 79.4%
????Dalton Kincaid – 77.9%— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) June 26, 2024
The steam on Ladd McConkey is understandable given the tumbleweed in the Chargers wide receiver room, but it might still be a little much given that McConkey never had more than 58 receptions in any year of his time with Georgia. In PPR leagues it will be easier to click McConkey’s name compared to half PPR formats.
Drake Maye (QB – NE): -25
Maye isn’t viewed as a true dual-threat but he did rush for almost 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college, playing behind a bad offensive line in North Carolina. Maye’s biggest barrier to fantasy success is the coaching staff and he’ll have to win them over to start straightaway, but positive stories are emerging from New England. In single-QB redraft, we can afford to wait and see how the summer unfolds.
The Jets running back room is looking slightly crowded with Breece Hall, Israel Abanikanda, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, but all the reports are that Allen is the clear RB2, so it might be that this ranking catches up to ADP by the time training camp is in full swing.
The ECR is ahead on Gus Edwards, but way behind on Kimani Vidal, despite him posting big numbers in college, peaking with 1,861 all-purpose yards in 2023. The common knock against Vidal is that he did this playing for a small school (Troy) so it might not transfer to the NFL, but with an ambiguous running back room in LA, he might be able to prove people wrong.
.@chargers @kimanividal just pay attention. The only RB the #bolts drafted; and with purpose. They have a plan. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/8CKomuG2ni
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) May 13, 2024
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS): -63
Nobody is expecting too much from Zach Ertz as he enters his age 34 season after dealing with plenty of injuries in the last two years, but he could be worth a deep flier in very deep leagues given his connection to now Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
The Cowboys have done little to add to their wide receiver room this offseason, giving Jalen Tolbert probably his last chance to seize a role in the NFL. From Week 10 onwards, Tolbert outperformed Michael Gallup with more targets, higher yards per route run, 14.1 air yards per target vs 11.9 for Gallup and an almost identical amount of snaps. Tolbert has yet to really emerge into a role but this feels like the ECR is a little too pessimistic.
Jonnu Smith (TE – MIA): -113
Mike McDaniels was recently asked about Jonnu Smith’s role in the Dolphins’ offense, regarding the fact that he hasn’t historically used tight ends very much. His response was typically eloquent for McDaniels but came down to – just because we haven’t used tight ends before, doesn’t mean we won’t in the future. Smith hasn’t been the hit many hoped for, but he’s athletic and versatile enough to succeed with a good offensive coordinator after a couple of years with lesser ones in Arthur Smith and the Patriots carousel.
Chase Claypool (WR – BUF): -144
It’s a very deep dart throw after a few dreadful years for Chase Claypool, but the Bills wide receiver room is wide open and reports out of OTA’s were positive in his favor. ADP believes stronger than the rankings do.
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