Every year. There are players that we will NOT draft in fantasy football. Some burned us the year before, while others could have simply failed to live up to lofty expectations. In last year’s Players to Avoid article, I nailed plenty of landmines like Deshaun Watson, Alexander Mattison, and Terry McLaurin while also whiffing on Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Rachaad White. This year’s approach is not only avoiding players whose analytical profiles scream stay away but circumventing other players at their ADP cost because it will be unlikely they will pay it off. Without further ado, here are my players to avoid in Fantasy Football in 2024.
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Quarterbacks
Yes, I know I’m leading off this article with what many people will say is absolute insanity, BUT hear me out. Allen’s second-round ADP is an impossible ask for me to press the draft button on, especially after the move to new offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Yes, I’m also fully aware that under Brady last year (Weeks 11-18), Allen was still the QB1 in fantasy points per game (25 ppg), but the way he was scoring fantasy points is unsustainable. With Brady calling the shots, the Bills’ offensive game plan changed from the 11th-most pass-happy team in the NFL to an offense featuring the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate. Allen’s passing attempts per game dipped from 35 to 32.7, and his passing yards per game dropped from 260 to 243.7. Those might not sound like crazy dips, but also tack on that his passing touchdowns per game dropped from 1.9 to 1.4.
Ok, well, how did Allen sustain his fantasy production then? Rushing and, more specifically, rushing touchdowns. With Brady, Allen’s rushing attempts and yards per game climbed from 4.8 and 24.6 to nine and 39.7. To put that into further context, it would have equaled 153 rushing attempts across a full season. The Bills aren’t likely to keep up Allen’s rushing volume at that clip when he has never logged more than 124 rushing attempts in a season.
Also, Allen is coming off a season in which he spiked 15 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the most by a quarterback since 1966. With Brady, Allen would have been on pace for 19 rushing touchdowns over a full season. See where I’m going here? The rushing touchdown production glossed over drops across the board for Allen. With all of these question marks and his insane ADP, I won’t be drafting much Allen (if any) this year.
I’m out. I won’t be drafting Watson at all in 2024. Nope. There are too many good quarterback options in fantasy this year to consider rostering Watson. Last year, in his full games played, he averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. His rushing ability did much of the lifting for that ranking as he averaged 28.4 rushing yards, which would have ranked eighth-best last year among quarterbacks (minimum five games started). As a passer, Watson looks like a shell of his former self. Last year, among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he finished 28th in CPOE, 36th in adjusted completion rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and 36th in highly accurate target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Others can take a shot on a possible bounceback from Watson. I won’t. I’m full fading him this year.
Running Backs
Kamara has been trucking along for the last two seasons, relying on a volume stranglehold to continue to produce as the RB3 and RB13 in fantasy points per game. His receiving numbers remain fantastic, but his efficiency in other areas has slipped massively. Could he continue to gobble up the volume at the same clip and be a top 12-15 back in 2024? Yep, it’s possible.
It’s tough for me to continue to make this bet on a running back entering his age-29 season. Kamara’s yards after contact per attempt have dropped in each of the last five seasons. Last season, among 49 qualifying backs, Kamara ranked 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 48th in yards after contact per attempt, and 35th in explosive run rate. Behind an offensive line that objectively has gotten worse this offseason and ranked only 17th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt last year, it will be tough sledding for Kamara in 2024.
Jacobs hasn’t been the same player since his epic 2022 season. The volume took a toll on him last year. He was unable to finish the season due to a quad strain sustained in Week 13. Coincidentally, he’s already dealing with a hamstring issue this early in the offseason. The biggest worry surrounding this back that I can’t seem to shake is his tackle-breaking juice might be gone…for good.
Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Jacobs can somehow earn a stranglehold on volume, then he could still pay off this season, but with my guy MarShawn Lloyd on the roster and the team already talking up Lloyd’s role, I doubt that will happen. I’m fading Jacobs in 2024.
Moss feels like the customary dead zone back, de jour. He parlayed his starting stint with the Colts into a free agency contract with Cincy and the lead for the early down work. Moss’s 2.79 yards after contact per attempt doesn’t look bad on the surface until you realize that a few big games propped it up. Moss failed even to hit 2.7 yards after contact per attempt in seven games while overall ranking 23rd out of 50 qualifying backs in elusive rating.
It’s tough to imagine those numbers improving this year when he’s moving to running behind an offensive line that ranked 16th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt as opposed to Indy’s ranking of 10th last year. The passing game work won’t save him either, as Chase Brown should be considered the favorite there. In 2023, Moss ranked 41st in yards per route run and 48th in targets per route run. I’ll invest in Chase Brown later, or more likely, just the Bengals’ passing attack for 2024.
Rachaad White was Leonard Fournette 2.0 for Tampa Bay last season. An inefficient rusher whose pass game role and every down snap share vaults them to RB1 land. Last year, White was the RB10 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. He also ranked top-ten in carries (second), targets (ninth), and red zone touches (ninth). White didn’t do nearly as much with that volume as we’d hoped. Among 49 qualifying backs, White ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While he was eighth in overall target volume among running backs, he was only 43rd in targets per route run and 18th in yards per route run. White could easily roll back into 2024 as the Bucs do it all back, but don’t be surprised if Bucky Irving helps him shoulder the load.
D’Andre Swift lands in Chicago with a contract that is large enough to consider him the clear starter for the Bears. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson had their moments last season, but the aggression and contact size for Chicago speak volumes about how they feel about those two rushers. The Bears obviously felt that an upgrade was warranted. Swift ranked 17th in explosive run rate last season while disappointing in other tackle-breaking metrics as the RB24 in fantasy. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, Swift ranked 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift should be a solid RB2 in 2024.
Wide Receivers
As the saying goes, “Don’t hate the player. Hate the ADP.” Adams’s ADP makes zero sense for me to buy in for 2024. He’s being ranked as the WR9 per ECR and currently, in best ball formats, is being drafted as the WR10. Am I the only one who saw Adams rank second in raw target volume and target share last year and still only finish as the WR15 in fantasy points per game? Yes, he was the WR5 in expected fantasy points per game, but that’s the problem.
The quarterback play and offensive situation with Las Vegas will cap Adams’ ceiling despite the heaping volume he’s likely to see. The combo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Also, add in the play-calling sacrilege of Luke Getsy, a slow-paced offense (tenth-slowest after Week 8 last year), and dwindling passing volume (13th-fewest pass attempts per game over their final nine games), and despite Adams’ still amazing talent, I’m out.
We’ve seen Diggs fall off in the second half of seasons in two consecutive years. If one year wasn’t enough to scare you off, then last year should have been. In the final seven games of 2022, Diggs only logged one 100-yard receiving game with 1.95 yards per route run. It was a similar, except an even more gruesome story in 2023. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game.
Moving from Josh Allen to C.J. Stroud is a push as far as arm talent. The problem for Diggs is that even if you want to excuse away the back halves of the last two years, he’ll be challenged for targets by a strong trio of pass catchers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. I’ll avoid Diggs in drafts for the upside swing of Collins or the value play of Dell.
I don’t know if Brown can be counted on for a full complement of games at this stage of his career. He’s only managed more than 14 games played once in his career. He has a long track record of foot issues dating back to even the pre-draft process when he was entering the NFL. Even if we want to move past those worrisome question marks, Brown has seen his yards per route run fall in each of the last four seasons. Last season, among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 62nd in yards per route run and 48th in first downs per route run. I’ll happily draft all of the other main cogs in the Kansas City passing offense this season, ie. Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, or Rashee Rice, but I’m avoiding Brown in all formats.
Addison’s WR30 finish last year in fantasy points per game won’t be replicable in 2024 unless he cures a BUNCH of massive red flags in his profile. His rookie season was inflated by his insane touchdown luck. He was 15th in end zone targets last year and ran hot with the fourth-most receiving touchdowns among wide receivers behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. All of his other metrics were in the toilet. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 46th in target share, 59th in targets per route run, 51st in yards per route run, and 58th in first downs per route run. Touchdowns are flukey. Everything points to Addison being a bust in 2024, so I’ll be happily avoiding him.
Tight Ends
I’ll lead this off by stating that Ferguson, who ranked seventh in targets among tight ends last year, is a good bet for volume again in 2024, but I have a hard time seeing a wondrous ceiling for Ferguson that will burn me. The bevy of pass catchers behind CeeDee Lamb littering the Dallas depth chart is underwhelming at best, so yes, Ferguson should fight Cooks for the WR2 role in this offense.
Despite the high volume Ferguson saw last season, he finished as the TE10 in fantasy points per game despite leading all tight ends in red zone targets. The rest of Ferguson’s numbers scream that the ceiling is capped, and he’s an overrated player who’s being propped up by the situation. Last year, among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 14th in target share, 17th in yards per route run, and 15th in first downs per route run. Ferguson might fall into the top back end of the top 12 tight ends again this season, but the likelihood that he finishes top 3-5 at the position is slim. I want home runs in fantasy football. Not seeing-eye singles.
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
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