With the NFL quickly approaching, so too are redraft fantasy leagues. With that, it’s time to gauge where average draft position (ADP) data is and what the first round is looking like with less than two months to go until the Hall of Fame game kicks off the 2024 NFL preseason games.
Using the FantasyPros Draft Simulator tool, I’ll participate in a 12-team standard mock draft to examine current ADP and see if we can spot any potential value plays as “official” fantasy football drafts approach.
For roster construction, the team will be comprised of the following:
- 1 QB
- 2 RB
- 2 WR
- 1 TE
- 1 WR/RB/TE Flex
- 1 DST
- 1 K
- 6 Bench
I’ll be drafting from the No. 2 spot. I’ll analyze each pick and give a complete rundown of my strategy at the end.
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Picks & Results
1.02: CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Christian McCaffrey went at the 1.01 as expected, so I took CeeDee Lamb. He should see 200+ targets in this offense as his main competition will be Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson.
Lamb will finish with the second-most points as a non-quarterback, and with that, I’m taking him here at 1.02 and will not look back.
He’ll be incredibly productive in quarterback Dak Prescott‘s final year of his contract.
2.11: Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
With Lamb off the board and now down here at 2.11, my top-rated suggestions using the simulator were Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Jacobs Isiah Pacheco and De’Von Achane. Aiyuk was at the top of the suggestions at more than 70%, but I decided to take my RB1 with Pacheco.
Pacheco was heavily relied on in the Chiefs’ offense last season, and while they have more options, there are still plenty of opportunities for Pacheco. Wide receiver Rashee Rice faces potential suspension issues, tight end Travis Kelce is going to turn 35 and wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are the other options.
Pacheco was the RB17 in standard leagues last season but didn’t play in Weeks 14, 15 and 18. From Weeks 1-13, Pacheco was the RB7 in standard leagues.
Don’t let the added weapons deter you from Pacheco. He’ll get plenty of opportunities with minimal backfield competition.
3.02: De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
The suggestions at this pick on the simulator rated DJ Moore, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Jacobs higher. I didn’t feel great about Moore, even as my WR2, considering the number of options in Chicago. As for Hurts, he would be fine, but I like to wait on quarterbacks.
It came down to Jacobs and Achane.
I went with Achane as he has youth on his side. Sure, Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright are in the fold, but after Achane’s performance last season when healthy, I can only hope he’ll get the bulk of the carries with Mostert well into his 30s and Wright taking some time to catch on.
This is certainly a dice roll. However, Achane, who played in just five games from Weeks 1 to 12 and had fewer than one point in two of those, was fourth in average points per game at the running back position last season and was the RB21. Again, this is a player who barely played and still managed to be an RB2.
4.11: DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
This was the suggested pick in the simulator, and I went with it. I love where DK Metcalf’s stock is headed in 2024.
Tyler Lockett‘s production in areas like yards per target has dropped over the last three years. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba will almost certainly be more involved, the Seahawks’ coaching staff, namely new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, should facilitate a brand of offense to make Metcalf uber-productive.
Grubb comes from the Washington Huskies as an offensive coordinator. Before that, he was the offensive coordinator for Fresno State. Since 2020, in two seasons with Fresno State and two more with Washington, all of his offenses finished inside the top 10 in passing yards per game, and the Huskies finished top two in each of the last two seasons.
Look for Metcalf to get some volume.
5.02: Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
With my receivers being from the Cowboys and Seahawks, I’ll look to target Dak Prescott as my starting quarterback.
Thus, I’m passing on CJ Stroud (the top recommendation at 36%) for Mark Andrews (a 30% recommendation).
With this, I have my two starting wide receivers, two running backs and now a tight end.
The Ravens will look to get Zay Flowers more involved, but Andrews will remain the 1A/1B option in this offense pending health.
6.11: Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
Ugh. Prescott went one pick before me.
Yes. One. Pick. Now, I’ll look to be even more patient at quarterback.
I still needed a Flex play, and Higgins fell right into my lap. A running back for added depth would be nice, but I pick again at 7.02 and don’t want to miss out on Higgins.
He’ll play on the franchise tag this year, and he’s likely auditioning for his next team.
Contract year player? I’m in.
7.02: Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)
The running back options will get quite terrible in a hurry here, so I’ll take a swing at the rookie who was the first running back off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Jonathon Brooks lands on an offense that is in the midst of an overhaul with Dave Canales as the head coach, but this draft pick also spells the end of Miles Sanders‘ run (no pun intended) with the team.
Brooks is coming off an injury, but he should be healthy in time for the season. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, and the Panthers need a playmaker of his caliber.
Again, this is my RB3 and not a starter. I can be patient should he start the season hurt.
The suggested pick was Gus Edwards. I’m not touching him.
8.11: Jordan Love (QB – GB)
As expected, the running back choices aren’t great. The top suggestion here was Jordan Love, and behind him were Diontae Johnson, Zach Charbonnet and Chuba Hubbard.
No thanks.
Love was the QB5 last season in his first full year of being the starting quarterback and he should only build off of that.
In watching the games last season, you could tell the Packers took a safer approach at the beginning of the season but unleashed the offense more as the season progressed.
A potential top-five quarterback in the eighth round? Perfect.
9.02: Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Again, I’m going with the top suggestion here, and I will get a potential Jordan Love/Christian Watson stack should he crack my starting lineup.
The issue with Watson has been and always will be health. He played from Weeks 4 to 13, and that was it. During that stretch, he was the WR26.
I’ll take a chance to get that level of production in the ninth round. At full health, he’d be Love’s No. 1 option.
10.11: Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
There are contract issues with Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller showed some flashes as a rookie. In Week 18, he had 13 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown.
He’ll have a chance to carve out more carries in a timeshare with Kamara. In the 10th round, with limited upside at the position, Miller easily offers the most.
11.02: Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
While drafting a backup tight end may not be viewed as great value by some remember that this league offers a Flex spot a tight end can fill.
Kyle Pitts has been criminally under-utilized in his NFL career and I have faith that Kirk Cousins can right that ship.
12.11: Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
The suggested pick was Ravens defense. While they may be productive, there’s no chance I’m taking that here.
Instead, I’ll take a flier on Johnson. D’Andre Swift is ahead of him on the depth chart, but Swift has never played every game in a single season. He had a career-high with 16 last year. In Detroit from 2020 to 2022, he played in no more than 14 games.
Johnson is talented, but he’s someone I’ll likely be keeping on the bench for a bit to see if a situation materializes.
13.02: Ray Davis (RB – BUF)
I have depth at all positions, so I’ll stick with running back and grab Ray Davis.
This is another situation where James Cook is ahead of him, but Davis should still get some action in an offense that should be more run-heavy in 2024.
This is my RB6, so again, I’m content with cutting bait if and when I need to.
14.11: Justin Tucker (K – BAL)
I’m not missing out on the best kicker in the league.
15.02: Chicago Bears D/ST
The Bears are playing at home in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. The Bears will be hyped up with No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams and the Titans have a rookie left tackle on an already-shaky offensive line.
This D/ST was No. 8 at the position from Week 14 on, so expect some Will Levis sacks here.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Analysis
Following the draft, I was given a grade of 90 out of 100, and the projected standings had me in third place.
Compared to the piece I published looking at a 12-team PPR league, I like this far more.
According to the Draft Insights at FantasyPros, I reached on Brooks and Miller, but I’m not worried about that, considering how my team shook out. I have plenty of depth at all positions, have a stack with Love and Watson and don’t have any bye week issues.
I love this draft far more than my last mock.
More Fantasy Football Mock Drafts
Practice for your draft with fast mocks against realistic opponents using our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator. Below, our analysts walk through different fantasy football draft formats, sharing their picks from recent fantasy football mock drafts.
- 12-Team, PPR, Late Pick (v2)
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- 12-Team, Superflex (v2, v3)
- 12-Team, Half-PPR, Early Pick
- 12-Team, Half-PPR, Late Pick
- 12-Team, Standard
- 10-Team, PPR
- 10-Team, Standard
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