The NFL season will be here faster than expected, and before that comes the all-important fantasy football drafting season! What better way to prepare for your fantasy football draft than completing FREE mocks with our fantasy football mock draft simulator?
This series will give you an overview of what you can expect to see no matter which first-round pick you draw. In what feels like a very strong first round in 2024, nailing your picks will be more important than ever.
Let’s dive into our approach for the fantasy football 1.03 pick for upcoming drafts. We look into the players likely to be available, those to target/avoid and a mock draft from the pick to help you prepare for your fantasy football league.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Pick 1.03
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
When we’re drafting from the 1.03, we are all but guaranteed a strong base from which to start our draft. If Christian McCaffrey should fall to us, then it’s sensible to consider a Hero RB approach, as the top-end wide receivers will likely be running dry by the time our second pick comes around. If you start with a wide receiver, which is quite likely here, then it might work out better to take a Zero RB approach through the first five or six rounds, unless you believe strongly in either Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane, who could be around for your second or third round picks.
Players to Consider at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
It’s likely that Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb will be the first picks off the board in most single-quarterback formats, so here are players who should available when you make your selection:
- Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
- Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
- Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
- Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
If either Christian McCaffrey or CeeDee Lamb are still available, then they are easy picks at this selection.
Players to Target at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
If available, you should target these fantasy football players at the 1.03 draft pick.
It’s fair to question if Tyreek Hill will be as dominant in 2024 as he was in 2023, when part of his success came at the expense of Jaylen Waddle, who struggled through injuries. Still, Hill’s ceiling outcomes are incredibly high and the further into round one we get, the more appealing he becomes. Hill had nine top-five weekly finishes in PPR leagues, and if he hadn’t ended the season with a spell of three games finishing as WR15 or lower, he could have been a league-winner.
If Mike McDaniel can find a way to get season-long consistency out of Tua Tagovailoa, then the Dolphins’ offense might finally be able to ascend to the next level. Another positive for Hill’s fantasy value is that the Dolphins’ defense lost several key pieces in free agency, and cornerback Xavien Howard was a cap-casualty.
If Tee Higgins gets traded, we could have a very real conversation about Ja’Marr Chase going as the 1.01 in fantasy drafts and our own Andrew Erickson is making a strong case for it regardless. Still, it feels unlikely that the Bengals trade Higgins, given that the Bengals are so anemic when it comes to making trades. They frequently seem to fail at grasping the concept that you can get better, even if it involves trading a talented player. Instead, Higgins seems set to follow Jessie Bates’ path of being tagged by the Bengals and then being allowed to walk, particularly now that the Bengals know extending Chase will likely cost them very close to, or if not more than, the $35 million a year just received by Justin Jefferson.
Per Jacob Gibbs, when Tyler Boyd has been off the field over the past two seasons, Chase’s targets per route run rate went up from 24.1% to 27.6%. Chase also benefits from playing more often in the slot when Boyd isn’t on the field, which has also been a boon for players like Jefferson and Lamb. This allows them to accumulate easy catches in addition to the high-value ones they already see. The Bengals have one of the easiest strengths of schedules, thanks to finishing fourth in the AFC North last year, and if Burrow can stay healthy, Chase can be an elite fantasy option in 2024.
The counter to the Ja’Maar Chase argument would be that Justin Jefferson has shown us far more consistency and is everything we hoped Chase could become. Over the last three seasons, Jefferson has averaged 102.3 yards per game, 20 more than Chase’s 82.6, and Jefferson also averages 15.0 yards per reception compared to Chase’s 13.9. Jefferson has finished higher than Chase in PPR points per game in every single year they’ve both played in the league, with Jefferson the WR4 in 2021 to Chase’s WR5, then WR1 to Chase’s WR5 in 2022 and again in 2023 Jefferson pipped Chase finishing as the WR5 to Chase’s WR10. Neither player is a bad pick, but I would lean towards Justin Jefferson ever so slightly.
Players to Avoid at 1.03 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Here are a few potential fantasy football draft landmines that you should avoid.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL) & Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
If McCaffrey is off the board, it could be tempting to consider one of the other elite running backs in round one, such as Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. However, that could be a mistake. Hall and Robinson both look to benefit massively from improved quarterback play in 2024, which isn’t saying much. Still, the difference in their production compared to the elite receivers is worth considering.
Robinson averaged 13.8 points per game in 2023 and has Tyler Allgeier hanging around. Meanwhile, Hall averaged 16.3 points, and the Jets just drafted two other running backs in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. A legendary season could be in the cards for one or even both of Robinson and Hall, but the wide receivers in this range have given us bigger and better samples across their careers and deserve to be taken ahead of them.
While the wide receivers are the more attractive pick at this spot in the draft, there is no need to reach further down to get A.J. Brown. Last year was a tale of two halves for Brown, who scored 22.6 points per game Weeks 1-9 before going off a cliff and scoring only 12.3 points per game for the rest of the season. Part of this can be attributed to the Eagles collapse in general and an injury to Jalen Hurts that we never heard any proper details about, however that didn’t seem to hinder DeVonta Smith. Smith still returned reasonable value as the PPR WR13 over the second half of the year, scoring 3.2 points more per game than Brown, despite seeing a 6% lower target share than Brown’s 31%. Brown is a fun player with a super-high ceiling, but we don’t need to reach on him here.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft from the 1.03 Pick
We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.03 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings in order to prepare more specific to your draft.
Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft from the 1.03 position turned out:
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Primers
- Quarterback Fantasy Football Draft Primer
- Running Back Fantasy Football Draft Primer
- Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Draft Primer
Expert Must-Have Draft Picks
Expert Players to Avoid
- DBro’s Players to Avoid (Premium)
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