Fantasy Football Draft Outlook: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs (2024)

With startups in full swing and fantasy football drafts around the corner, we must target the correct players that elevate our teams to champions. We elevate our fantasy football team by conducting the proper research during the offseason. Today, we will be working through some fantasy football target analysis from the AFC. We break down some situations that have changed since 2023 and explain how they affect the remaining players, as well as who we should target for our fantasy football championship-bound teams. Below we dive into one specific situation and the fantasy football draft outlook for those players involved.

Fantasy Football Target Analysis: AFC

Houston Texans

WR: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs
TE: Dalton Schultz
RB: Joe Mixon

Let’s begin with a team that many are excited about and their breakout star, Nico Collins. The Texans added another star to their wide receiver room in Stefon Diggs, but does that mean Nico Collins will be a one-hit wonder? We doubt it. Nico Collins is laced with talent. He is a big human who stands at 6′ 4′ and 215 lbs and he likes to play a physical game. Collins also brings that second gear into his game, especially when he is hip-to-hip with his defender. These skills led to Collins ranking 12th in targets per route run and second in yards per route run. He offers a high yards per reception (16.2), and his young stud quarterback, C.J. Stroud, will continue to look for him downfield to help open the defense up and gain chunks of yards in the blink of an eye.

So why did the Houston Texans trade for Stefon Diggs? Well, more talent around your young quarterback is always a good thing. The question is, which Diggs will Stroud receive? Diggs has lost a step and becomes more of a beta than an alpha in a wide receiver room. Last year, he had ten games finishing as WR24 or worse. Diggs can still provide weekly fantasy points, but don’t expect the days of 1,800 air yards like last season. Our projections have him under 100 receptions and barely cracking 1,000 yards. The move for Stefon Diggs helps elevate C.J. Stroud for fantasy more than it does the former alpha wide receiver.

Now we move onto the electrifying rookie from last year, Tank Dell. Tank is returning from an injury he suffered toward the end of last season. That injury may have helped get Diggs to the Texans, but Tank Dell should still have a role in this offense. He is an elite separator with impressive footwork and with those combined skills, Tank will become a favorite weapon of Stroud’s again in no time. Tank averaged 6.8 targets per game last season, with 75 targets overall in 11 games. We should see the overall number jump, but I would be cautious in believing he can elevate past 6.8 as an average per game with all the weapons in Houston, so that, his injury, and his ADP all make Tank Dell a harder bet to place this offseason.

Who will Tank Dell’s return and Stefon Diggs’ emergence hurt the most? The answer is Dalton Schultz. Last year, Schultz finished as the TE11 in the NFL. But in 2024, he will likely fall to the fourth target within this offense. It will be a struggle for him to replicate his 53-635-5 stat line. Instead, we should expect a finish closer to 500 yards for this tight end. His average draft position is 142, which should be too rich for your blood.

Finally, we finish with the new running back, Joe Mixon. He should control 75% or more of the rushing attempts, but what about his targets out of the backfield? Well, they may be limited. C.J. Stroud produced three or more targets for his running backs only six times last season. If you are drafting Mixon, it should be for his rushing attempt total, not his targets.