Several factors go into making fantasy football rankings. However, the top item is predicting change. While everyone wants to talk about which players will have a breakout season or turn into fantasy superstars, what goes up must come down.
That means some players see a drop in touches and production every year. Let’s look at nine running backs expected to see fewer carries in 2024 and the fantasy football impact.
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Running Backs Expected to See Fewer Carries
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)
Etienne was one of the few featured running backs last season, accounting for 58.9% of the team’s total rushing attempts and 74.6% out of the backfield. However, the star running back wore down in the second half of last year, averaging 3.7 or fewer yards per rushing attempt in six of his final eight contests. The Jaguars coaching staff have stated that they want to cut back on Etienne’s workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
Many were surprised to see Williams have an RB1 finish in 2023. However, the former Notre Dame star missed five games, including four because of a high ankle sprain. He led the NFL in rushing attempts per game (19) last year, including 20 or more in all five contests following the injury. Yet, Williams won’t see that workload again this upcoming season after the Rams spent a third-round pick on Blake Corum. Furthermore, he has dealt with a foot issue this offseason.
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
There was only one running back with more rushing attempts than White last year – Derrick Henry. Furthermore, the former Arizona State star had as many rushing attempts as Christian McCaffrey in 2023. He accounted for 75.6% of the team’s backfield rushing attempts but wasn’t efficient with the touches, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt. More importantly, the Buccaneers lacked a reliable No. 2 guy on the depth chart. However, that won’t happen this season with Bucky Irving on the roster.
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)
The former Cincinnati Bengals star is one of my favorite running backs to draft this upcoming season. However, Mixon will see his workload decrease following the trade to Houston. He averaged 15.1 rushing attempts per game in 2023. Yet, fantasy players should expect that number to decline as the Texans head into their second year with C.J. Stroud under center. Furthermore, the addition of Stefon Diggs suggests Houston will lean on their star quarterback more than in 2024.
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)
Mostert was the biggest surprise from last season. The veteran running back has struggled with injuries in his career. Yet, he only missed two games in 2023 after missing half of the games in the previous three years. While Mostert managed to stay mostly healthy last season, fantasy players should expect that to happen again in 2024. More importantly, he recently turned 32 and has to fight off De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright for rushing attempts.
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)
Many thought Pollard would become a fantasy superstar in 2023 after the Dallas Cowboys moved on from Ezekiel Elliott. The former Memphis star had a career-high 252 rushing attempts last season, accounting for 33.1% of his career total. More importantly, he was responsible for 68.1% of the rushing attempts from the Dallas backfield. However, Pollard won’t be the featured guy in Tennessee. The veteran will be part of a 1-2 punch with Tyjae Spears.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS)
Fantasy players have made Ekeler their RB1 for years. Unfortunately, those days are over for the veteran running back. Ekeler averaged 12.8 rushing attempts per game last season as the veteran was part of one of the more pass-happy offenses in the NFL. After four years as the featured back, he will split backfield work with Brian Robinson Jr. in 2024. Furthermore, Jayden Daniels will have a role in the run game, further impacting Ekeler’s rushing totals.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
While Miles Sanders was labeled the featured guy heading into last season, Hubbard was the better running back. He had 238 rushing attempts, a career-high and the ninth-most in the NFL. However, the veteran won’t see that total again after the Panthers added Jonathon Brooks. Hubbard should have a role early in the year but will get pushed to the bench once the rookie is 100% healthy. Furthermore, Carolina’s passing game should be significantly better with Dave Canales on the sidelines.
AJ Dillon (RB – GB)
Dillon averaged a career-high 11.9 rushing attempts per game in 2023. He had an uptick in rushing work with Aaron Jones in and out of the lineup. However, that won’t be the case this season. Green Bay signed Josh Jacobs to a massive contract in free agency and spent a Day 2 NFL Draft pick on MarShawn Lloyd. The only reason fantasy players should draft Dillon is if they are die-hard Packer fans and have no interest in winning their fantasy league.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Target
- Fitz’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- Erickson’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Top Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Premium)
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
