One thing I’ve noticed when looking at my results from this article is that predicting pitching is much easier than predicting hitting. We always expect every hitter to replicate what’s on the back of the baseball card, but to predict when is nearly impossible. It’s much easier with pitchers because the matchups greatly influence how well these guys will produce.
This list comprises the 10 main categories in roto leagues. Under each category, you’ll find a player who can specifically help you with that individual stat. Most players will offer help in more ways than one, but their primary contributions should come under the category in which they are listed.
I’ll be putting out a similar piece every week, so check back every Sunday, as I’ll have a new list of players not previously mentioned. Without further ado, here are this week’s category-based fantasy baseball waiver wire additions.
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- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups (Week 15)
Home Runs
Michael Toglia (1B, OF – COL)/Hunter Goodman (1B, C, DH, OF – COL): 4%/11%
The Rockies will be a popular waiver wire team this week, and it’s easy to understand why. They are one of the only teams with seven games, and all of them are at home. That’s awesome in a place like Coors Field because that ballpark has surrendered the most runs in baseball since its inception. That should bode well for these two power hitters, with Michael Toglia and Hunter Goodman playing nearly every day. Toglia has homered in five of his last 12 games, while Goodman has five dingers over his last 10 outings. We don’t expect much average from these two, but a handful of bombs should be in play during this seven-game week at Coors Field.
RBI
Rhys Hoskins has been dropped in many of my leagues because of a poor start to the season, but this guy is too good to be sitting on the waiver wire. He’s still got 11 homers and 36 RBI, generating a .350 on-base percentage (OBP), a .486 slugging percentage (SLG) and a .836 OPS throughout his career. We expect him to return to those averages on the back of the baseball card sooner rather than later. Batting sixth in this bludgeoning Brewers lineup should force him into some prominent RBI opportunities. We say that because Milwaukee is one of the few teams with seven games this week, playing four of those in Coors Field against the worst pitching staff in baseball.
Runs
Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL): 9%
We just talked about how Colorado has the best week of scheduling, and this Charlie Blackmon stream is a simple case of math. The former All-Star is projected to come off the injured list (IL) this weekend and should return to his everyday role as the team’s leadoff hitter. That means we could pick up the leadoff hitter for the highest-projected offense of the week, with the Rockies projected to score nearly 40 runs. That bodes well with how Blackmon has played recently, registering a .418 OBP and .987 OPS across his last 18 games. He’s also got a .936 OPS at home over the last three years and should score a handful of runs with such an optimal schedule.
Batting Average
Joey Ortiz (2B, 3B – MIL): 44%
Joey Ortiz has quietly been a massive piece for the Brewers, playing nearly every day in Milwaukee. He’s even been featured in the leadoff spot at times, totaling a .275 batting average (AVG), .a 380 OBP and a .785 OPS. That on-base ability is all we care about here because not many players in today’s landscape are flirting with a .300 AVG and .400 OBP. We also saw this guy hit .321 at Triple-A, so this hitting ability is far from a fluke. That’s amazing since Coors Field is inducive to the highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in baseball. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ortiz pick up 7-10 hits in that four-game series.
Steals
We had Jake McCarthy in this section last week, and he might remain in it as long as he stays so widely available. The speedster has always been an elite option for steals, but we’re finally seeing him play every day. That’s led to McCarthy recording 12 steals so far this season, thanks to his .280 AVG and .361 OBP. We saw this guy pick up 23 and 26 steals in the two years prior, respectively, doing that damage in fewer than 100 games in both seasons. That shows just how dominant he can be on the base paths. If he’s playing every day, McCarthy can be a 40-steal player.
ERA
Albert Suarez (SP – BAL): 21% (at OAK)
This is one of the worst weeks for two-start streamers we’ve seen all season, so we will go with a single-start guy here. Albert Suarez has been a godsend for the injury-riddled O’s rotation, registering a 2.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers would look absurd if it weren’t for one dud against a hot Houston team, with Suarez surrendering two runs or fewer in seven of his other nine starts. That’s what you’re looking for from an ERA booster, and it should be easy to duplicate against an awful A’s lineup. Oakland ranks 28th or 29th in runs scored, strikeout rate and OBP.
Strikeouts
Spencer Arrighetti (SP – HOU): 7% (at MIN, at TOR)
Spencer Arrighetti is far from an exciting option, but he’s one of the only waiver-wire guys who might get double-digit strikeouts this week. We say that because he’s amid the best stretch of his career, allowing four runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. Most importantly, he has a 10.4 K/9 rate this season, recording 75 strikeouts across just 65 innings. That strikeout stuff makes him an enticing option in a two-start week, especially since he’s coming off a career-high 10 strikeouts in his most recent start. We love that against these righty-heavy lineups, with Toronto ranked 27th in runs scored.
WHIP
Kyle Gibson (SP – STL): 37% (at PIT, at WAS)
We just mentioned how horrible the two-start options are this week, but Kyle Gibson is probably the best two-start streamer available. The veteran is having a renaissance season in St. Louis, sporting a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. That includes a terrible opening two weeks, with Gibson generating a 3.01 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate across his last 12 starts. That’s the stuff that made him an All-Star in Texas, and he has the best matchups of the week. The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored, 23rd in OBP and 25th in wOBA, while the Pirates sit 23rd in runs scored, 27th in strikeout rate, 26th in OBP and 28th in wOBA.
Wins
Simeon Woods Richardson (SP – MIN): 18% (vs. DET, vs. HOU)
Simeon Woods Richardson doesn’t strike out many batters, but he’s quietly been an effective pitcher in Minnesota. The righty has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of 13 starts, providing a 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That should bode well for at least one win this week because he has two starts at home. We also like how Minnesota has been playing this month, posting a 13-6 record across their last 19 games. We anticipate Woods Richardson entering both matchups as a favorite, with Detroit ranked 27th in wOBA while Houston has played below expectations.
Saves
Aroldis Chapman (RP – PIT): 42%
David Bednar is expected to miss at least one more week, allowing Aroldis Chapman to pick up the bulk of the saves. He got the most recent opportunity without Bednar and is one of the all-time leaders with 323 saves throughout his career. The lefty has also showcased one of the best strikeout rates in the history of the game and could get a few chances since the Pirates have six home games this week.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
