Each week during the season, I take a look at four players who you should buy high or sell low based on their current value. The general idea is to buy (when their value is) high or sell (when their value is) low.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Lineup Advice
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 14)
Buy High
Greene is 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 88.2 innings across 15 starts this season. Through his first two years in the majors, the hard-throwing righty showed elite strikeout numbers but struggled with giving up too much hard contact. This year, Greene has traded some strikeouts for better contact suppression. His strikeout and whiff rates are still great, in the 78th and 82nd percentiles, respectively. However, he has cut his barrel rate given up from 9% to 5.4%. His hard-hit rate is now a strength (80th percentile), when it had previously been the biggest thing holding him back.
There are still some external factors that have affected Greene’s fantasy value in the past that should be considered. His health has been an issue in each of the past two seasons. He has never pitched more than 125.2 innings in a season and injuries are lurking around the corner for every pitcher. Lastly, he pitches in Cincinnati which has the highest Statcast park factor for home runs over the past three seasons. Maintaining his quality-of-contact suppression will be key to continuing his successful season.
Lewis has been nothing short of spectacular through 18 games. He’s slashing .348/.413/.848 with 17 runs scored, 10 home runs, and 14 RBI. Buying high is probably not the best advice with Lewis’ injury history. The person who has him, understandably, probably wants too much for him but the talent and production are undeniable. He doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify, but if he did, his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA would all be in the 99th percentile or better. He hardly strikes out (15.5 K%), he gets on base via walks (11.3% BB%) ,and his barrel rate is through the roof (19.2%).
Let’s be honest, it’s impossible to not have good underlying numbers when you have 10 homers in only 18 games played. However, Lewis’ production has translated during every healthy stint he has had in the majors. Through 94 career games (including the postseason), Lewis has a slash line of .310/.373/.620 with 64 runs scored, 31 home runs, and 76 RBI. Forget the 162-game pace, that stat line alone is valuable for fantasy as long as he’s on the field.
Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B – CIN)
Candelario started his Cincinnati Reds’ career slow after breaking out with a career-high 22 homers. However, since June 1, he’s slashing .342/.346/.711 with 12 runs scored, eight home runs, 18 RBI, and three steals in 20 games. Nothing in his expected statistics suggests anything is different for the switch hitter; he’s around his career averages in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xwOBAcon. His flyball and pull rates are what has changed. Both are career-highs, leading the way to what should be another career-high in homers. While his expected stats and quality-of-contact metrics haven’t changed much, his move to Cincinnati should continue to pay dividends. With the same metrics last year, Great American Ball Park was the best park for Candelario by expected home runs with 30. Batting in the heart of the Reds’ lineup should provide him with plenty of run-producing opportunities.
Sell Low
If you didn’t want to sell high on Luis Gil, I hope his most recent start has changed your tone and you can capitalize on his value before it’s too late. He went 1.1 innings, giving up seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out just one, albeit against the Baltimore Orioles. It would be easy to write this off and want to hold him as good as he’s been. Or trade him, because even after this start, his 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 are still impressive. His high walk rate (12.4%) and low groundball rate (37.9%) combined with an average exit velocity in the 35th percentile could be a recipe for future disastrous outings.
However, the elephant in the room is that he has never pitched more than 96 innings in any minor or major league season and is returning after sitting out 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He is already at 81.1 innings this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees limit his innings at times in hopes of having him ready for the postseason.
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