Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Buy High & Sell Low (Week 13)

Trading is a common answer to the most fun part of fantasy sports. However, it becomes a chore when fantasy managers are far apart on player evaluations. Each week during the season I take a look at four players who you should buy high or sell low based on their current value.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice

Buy High: Jarren Duran (OF – BOS)

Jarren Duran is slashing .276/.347/.466 with 48 runs scored, five home runs, 31 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 72 games. His improved hard-hit, strikeout and walk rates lead the way to career-best expected stats. The speedy centerfielder is in the 75th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA and xSLG. His groundball rate has risen to 46.8% but it has come with an increase in barrel and launch angle sweet-spot rates. Duran has become a more patient hitter batting leadoff, lowering his first pitch swing rate by 16%. He is chasing less and taking advantage of his swings by making hard contact. Even if his plate discipline regresses closer to his career averages, he should remain a consistent source of runs scored and steals.

Buy High: Salvador Perez (C – KC)

Salvador Perez is slashing .292/.370/.482 with 27 runs scored, 11 home runs and 45 RBI in 70 games. He ranks in the top three at the position in plate appearances at 34 years old and regularly sees playing time at first base or designated hitter. His Statcast page is painted in red with his expected stats in the 90th percentile or better. He’s hitting the ball as hard as ever and his strikeout and walk rates are career bests. Perez is batting in the heart of the Royals’ lineup with many run-producing opportunities. He’s had 23+ home runs and 76+ RBI in every full season since 2016 and looks poised to smash those numbers this year.

Sell Low: Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B – PIT)

Ke’Bryan Hayes is slashing .240/.309/.311 with 22 runs scored, two home runs, 15 RBI and five steals in 48 games. The third baseman has been a wonder in the fantasy community for a long time. His strikeout and walk rates would suggest more success for someone whose career average exit velocity is 91 miles per hour (MPH). However, he’s never compiled more than 15 homers or 20 steals in a season and never in the same season. This year is troubling because even though his plate discipline is fine, his quality-of-contact metrics are down. Hayes’ barrel rate, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA and xwOBAcon are all career lows. In the past when he was underperforming we had reasons to be optimistic. There’s not much to be optimistic about this year.

Sell Low: Zach Eflin (SP – TB)

Zach Eflin is 3-4 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 in 13 starts across 74.1 innings. This is not the follow-up fantasy managers thought they were getting in Eflin’s second year in Tampa Bay. His hard-hit rate given up is up to 40%, which is a career-high. His walk rate is in the 99th percentile at 1.4% but his strikeout rate is in the 19th percentile at 18.3%. Few strikeouts lead to a lot of balls in play. He ranks 29th in the league with a .301 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Add 11 home runs given up and that’s just too much potential damage he’s allowing. Eflin looks more like the pitcher he was in Philadelphia than last year. That’s not to say he won’t be useful, but he’s probably not a top-30 starter.