Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Buy High & Sell Low (Week 12)

Each week during the season I take a deeper look at four players you should buy high or sell low.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice

Buy High: Christian Yelich (OF – MIL)

Christian Yelich is slashing .324/.404/.517 with 21 runs scored, six home runs, 29 RBI and 10 steals through 39 games. He missed nearly a month on the injured list (IL) with a back injury but has shown no ill effects since returning. We remember how good Yelich was in the 2018 and 2019 seasons when he finished first and second in National League MVP voting. This year he is doing very similar things. Here are some stats that he hasn’t replicated since those two seasons: xBA over .300 (.305), wOBA over .400 (.402) and a strikeout rate under 22% (20.6%). He’s maintained a great hard-hit rate and is still in the 87th percentile in sprint speed at 32. Yelich may not be the MVP candidate he once was, but in fantasy, he can still be elite.

Each week during the season I take a deeper look at four players you should buy high or sell low.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice

Buy High: Christian Yelich (OF – MIL)

Buy High: Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL)

Kyle Bradish is 2-0 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 12.8 K/9 through 34.1 innings and seven starts. He broke out last year with a top-five American League Cy Young Award finish and was a big riser in average draft position (ADP) this winter. At the beginning of spring training, he was diagnosed with a UCL sprain that caused him to miss the first month of the season. He returned to the rotation in May and has taken another step forward from his 2023 season. His Statcast page is lit up in red with his xERA, xBA, exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate all in the 96th percentile or better. Bradish is getting even more groundballs this year and all the contact he is giving up has been weak. While his walk rate is worse this year, it’s hard to complain about with the improved strikeout rate. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings, Bradish ranks 13th in K-BB%, proving the walks aren’t hindering his performance. With the Baltimore Orioles’ offense and defense backing him, he looks ready to have another strong season.

Sell Low: Justin Turner (1B, 2B, 3B – TOR)

Justin Turner has been underwhelming in his first season in Toronto. He’s slashing just .233/.319/.360 with 21 runs scored, four home runs and 21 RBI in 57 games. He hasn’t been a standout in hard-hit rate in a long time but it’s a career-worst this year. He is in the 84th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot rate but with a first percentile bat speed, the veteran isn’t helping himself out. His walk and strikeout rates are fine but no longer elite. Turner’s quality-of-contact is pitiful and he has been losing playing time of late. His resurgence last year, setting a career-high in RBI, feels like a fever dream for the 39-year-old.

Sell Low: Jesus Luzardo (SP – MIA)

Jesus Luzardo is having a rough season in Miami. He is 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 through 56 innings and 10 starts. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are career-highs. On top of the hard contact, his groundball rate has dropped below 40% for the first time since 2021. Luzardo’s FIP of 3.87 suggests he could be unlucky but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) isn’t exactly holding him back at .292. His strand rate is being weighed down by a career-low strikeout rate, which is the biggest cause for concern. There have been rumors of him being moved before the trade deadline but there’s no guarantee he would get back on track with a new team. His strikeout ability has always been Luzardo’s biggest asset. If that is less than elite, he doesn’t have much else to fall back on.