June is here and a long summer of baseball is upon us. Fantasy baseball, like real baseball, is about playing the matchups and pushing the right buttons. Knowing if a player’s current performance is an indicator of future success makes champions. Each week during the season I take a deeper look at four players you should buy high or sell low.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy High: Dylan Cease (SP – SD)
Dylan Cease looked great through his first nine starts of the season but has faltered in his last three outings. His season line is still solid: 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.0 K/9. Even though he hasn’t been great these last few games, it has been against solid offenses in the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals. While we don’t want to give players a pass for pitching poorly, this may provide an opportunity to buy.
During those games, Cease has an ERA of 6.75 but his FIP (3.96) and xFIP (3.45) are more than two runs better. His strikeout rate has stayed steady and his walk rate has lowered during this skid. Cease looks better than he did in 2022 by almost all metrics except xERA, where his 3.20 mark this season still ranks in the 76th percentile. He has always had the strikeouts to be a fantasy star but has been limited by the free passes. If he can continue with his career-low walk rate, Dylan Cease can potentially be a top-10 pitcher.
Buy High: Sonny Gray (SP – STL)
Sonny Gray has looked the part as an ace for the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 through 10 starts. His FIP, xFIP, xERA, K/9 and BB/9 are all career bests. His fastball has been getting hit hard (.395 batting average against), leading him to use his sweeper more. He’s throwing his sweeper 20% of the time and has a .136 average against and a 46% whiff rate on the pitch. Gray is third in the league in K-BB%, sandwiched behind Jack Flaherty and Garrett Crochet, and right in front of Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale. He’s finished top-10 in Cy Young voting three times in his career and this is the best he’s ever looked.
Sell Low: George Springer (OF – TOR)
George Springer has struggled so far and, as a result, was moved down in the lineup in the middle of May. His season line isn’t what we’ve come to expect from the veteran outfielder. He has a triple slash line of .205/.299/.303 with 24 runs scored, four home runs, 12 RBI and seven steals in 52 games. Springer’s strikeout (15%) and walk (11.8%) rates are improved but his quality-of-contact stats are miserable. His max exit velocity is down six miles per hour (MPH) from last year. His xwOBA and xBA are around league average while most other metrics are well below. Springer has yet to be caught stealing and is on pace to set a career-high in steals but the power is concerning. If he continues to bat in the bottom third of the lineup, it could be a long season for fantasy managers.
Sell Low: Michael King (SP – SD)
Michael King is 4-4 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 through 13 games and 12 starts. His FIP of 4.60 suggests he may be pitching a little over his head. His strikeout rate (25.4%) is solid but his walk rate (10%) is a career-worst. King has given up at least one home run in eight out of 13 games. He’s walked at least one batter in all but one game and has multiple walks in all but three games. Giving up this many home runs and walks is a recipe for disaster. He does a good job of limiting hard contact but his fastball velocity is down 1.5 MPH. On top of the results, King is in his first year as a starter and has already pitched 70% of his career-high number of innings.
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