Hitting in MLB remains one of the most difficult assignments in sports. Doing so at a rate of 27% is considered impressive. Consistent, productive hitters are key in fantasy baseball and adjust well to pitching. Statcast has introduced metrics measuring a player’s ability to read pitching. One of these is squared-up percentage. This rate tracks how much exit velocity (EV) is achieved based on how much exit velocity was available on each pitch. It factors in the speed of the pitch and the speed of the swing. The higher the squared-up percentage, the more the hitter attacked the pitch based on location and speed. Combining squared-up percentage with high swing speed returns even more production at the plate. When the swing speed and squared-up percentage hit a certain threshold, it qualifies as a blast.
Below are players who may be undervalued in fantasy baseball but are showing upside with their blast percentage in the most recent window (5/21-6/4), along with how it compares to the window prior (5/7-5/21). The top 20 blast percentage leaderboard is also included.
*Blast percentage is the percentage of contacts that result in a blast.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B- TOR) – 28.8% (+6.6%)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has appeared in 61 games. This window represented 14 of them. His blast percentage of 28.8% was second among all players over the past two weeks. He tallied two of his six home runs, six of his 27 RBI, eight of his 27 runs scored and his OPS was .904 during this span. His OPS is .806 on the season. The Blue Jays 1B is making better reads at the plate. Guererro is also running behind his expected batting average of .304 and expected slugging percentage of .496. If he realizes that pace this season, he will post the second-best finish of his career in each category, respectively. Winning a fantasy baseball league often requires risk; managers of Matt Olson or Jake Cronenworth should target Guerrero in a straight-up swap at 1B or a multi-player trade.
Jarren Duran (OF – BOS) – 23.1% (-1.9%)
Jarren Duran was 22nd overall in blast percentage in this window, down from 11th in the window prior. He is one of the only non-household names that surfaced near the top 20 in both. Over 52 at-bats, he hit only one home run, scored six runs, had five RBI and one stolen base. This type of fantasy production is similar to what we saw in the previous window, leaving his managers scratching their heads. Do not bail on Duran, though. The consistent blast percentage shows improvement for him in his first full season in the big leagues. This should result in extra-base hits, soon. For a player hitting .261, and trailing his expected numbers, the ceiling for Duran is 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Move now for acquisition while his production is low.
Ian Happ (OF – CHC) – 22.4% (+4.5%)
Ian Happ picked it up over this window after a slower-than-expected start to 2024. He showed a steady increase in blast percentage from the window prior and was 26th overall in the category across 54 plate appearances. He had 13 RBI, which accounts for half of his season total, and four of his six home runs came in this span. This type of window pulls Happ closer to the pace his managers have seen over the last three years. He has hit 20+ home runs twice in that stretch. Players like Jesse Winker, Daulton Varsho and Ceddanne Rafaela have outperformed Happ in multiple categories this season, but they were well outside the top 50 in blast percentage in this window. Happ has an advantage over all three pacing behind his expected statistics and should be acquired for one of them if their managers will listen.
Ryan O’Hearn (DH – BAL) – 21.2% (+3.0%)
Ryan O’Hearn did not fill up the stat sheet in this window. He logged only one home run, three RBI, six runs scored and one stolen base. He was, however, inside the top 30 in blast percentage at 29th overall. O’Hearn is an interesting fantasy piece when considering his expected stats, his versatility and his availability for managers. O’Hearn is rostered in only 20% of ESPN leagues and qualifies at 1B, OF and DH on the platform. His season slugging percentage is .449. His expected slugging percentage is .544. This suggests power is on the way for a player on pace for career highs in home runs and RBI. The Orioles slugger is a nice add in the middle of the season to fill in on off days for starters and carries a .788 OPS over 47 games this season.
Fantasy Baseball Statcast Review: Top 20 Blast% Leaders
| Rank | Name | Blast% 5/21-6/4 | Blast% 5/7- 5/21 | Trend |
| 1 | Javier Baez | 30.30% | 22.40% | 7.90% |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 28.80% | 22.20% | 6.60% |
| 3 | Hunter Renfroe | 28.10% | 14.30% | 13.80% |
| 4 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 28.10% | 16.00% | 12.10% |
| 5 | Giancarlo Stanton | 28.00% | 30.60% | -2.60% |
| 6 | Corey Seager | 27.00% | 24.50% | 2.50% |
| 7 | Ketel Marte | 26.70% | 24.30% | 2.40% |
| 8 | Jackson Chourio | 26.30% | 24.40% | 1.90% |
| 9 | Juan Soto | 25.90% | 26.80% | -0.90% |
| 10 | Aaron Judge | 25.70% | 37.90% | -12.20% |
| 11 | Yandy Diaz | 25.70% | 26.70% | -1.00% |
| 12 | Yordan Alvarez | 25.30% | 19.70% | 5.60% |
| 13 | Nick Castellanos | 25.00% | 15.30% | 9.70% |
| 14 | Bryan Reynolds | 24.60% | 22.90% | 1.70% |
| 15 | Wilyer Abreu | 24.40% | 17.90% | 6.50% |
| 16 | Mitch Haniger | 24.40% | 21.10% | 3.30% |
| 17 | Amed Rosario | 24.30% | 10.00% | 14.30% |
| 18 | Jesus Sanchez | 23.80% | 18.60% | 5.20% |
| 19 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 23.60% | 9.70% | 13.90% |
| 20 | Will Benson | 23.30% | 13.30% | 10.00% |
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