Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And which ones have simply been receiving too much or too little luck lately?

Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.

The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.

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Positive & Negative Regression Candidates

Stats up to date through June 3, 2024

Players Due for Positive Regression

Yandy Diaz (1B – TB)

Suffice it to say, the doubts of those who didn’t believe Diaz could replicate his near MVP-caliber offense from last season have so far been proven correct. However, his sub-par numbers through two-plus months this year have been, at least in part, the product of some pretty poor luck.

Following a rough April, it appeared Diaz had turned the page over the first half of May. He hit .365 with a .952 OPS over a 15-game stretch from May 3 through May 18, backing that up with a 47.3 HardHit%, 93.8 mph EV, and 91.1 Contact%. He also managed to get his line-drive rate up to 21.8% in that span, which is key for Diaz in particular. Unfortunately, the Rays’ lead-off man has once again fallen into a slump since then.

Over his last 13 games, Diaz has managed to pick up just seven hits over 44 at-bats (.159 AVG) despite maintaining a 50.0 HardHit% and an elite 95.2 Contact%. The main issue has been his line-drive rate dropping back to 12.5%. Still, a .154 BABIP is not warranted by the level and strength of contact he has been making. Diaz holds a career .320 BABIP, and a pair of extra-base hits this past weekend is more reason for optimism.

Bailey Ober (SP – MIN)

Ober followed an excellent month of April with an erratic May. Last month, the Minnesota righty posted a 5.46 ERA over six starts. His 33-to-5 K/BB rate across 31 1/3 innings was great, but the long ball has plagued him (2.01 HR/9, 15.9 HR/FB%), especially in his most recent outing.

Ober’s career 1.44 HR/9 and 12.0 HR/FB%, while not exceptional, are reasons to believe he can reign it back in a bit. His 3.76 xFIP for May is even more encouraging. He also posted a sub-40.0 HardHit% and sub-90 mph EV. Further still, his 79.1 Z-Contact% ranked sixth among all qualifying starting pitchers for the month, while his overall 75.1 Contact% was 24th.

Expect Ober to get back on track and provide consistent value for fantasy managers going forward. He is definitely one to target as a potential “buy-low” option at the moment.

Players Due for Negative Regression

David Hamilton (2B, SS – BOS)

The speed seen from Hamilton so far in his rookie season is real. The success he’s been having with the bat over the last few weeks is probably not.

In a regular middle-infield role, Hamilton has gotten 54 plate appearances since May 15, going 17 for 50 (.340 AVG) with five extra-base hits, eight runs, and five steals (six attempts). That’s largely been the product of a ridiculous .444 BABIP, which is certain to drop off dramatically, especially considering his 37.8 HardHit% and 19.4 LD%.

Hamilton has also struck out at better than a 24.0% clip during this span, with an overall contact rate of just under 78.0%. He is worth a roster spot for those in search of a boost in steals, but expectations should be tempered.

Bailey Falter (SP – PIT)

Unlike Bailey Ober, Bailey Falter was about as steady as it gets throughout last month. In five May starts, the crafty southpaw turned in a 2.23 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .193 AVG across 32 1/3 innings. Can he keep that up? The smart money would say, “NO!”.

Falter greatly benefitted from an unsustainable .189 BABIP in May, while the combination of a 49.5 HardHit%, 92.1 mph EV, and 84.8 Contact% left his opponent’s xBA at .275 (per Statcast). His 15-to-9 K/BB is uninspiring, and a 5.04 xFIP should set off the alarm bells of any fantasy manager.

He was outstanding in Toronto this past Friday and has surrendered only three runs across his last 21 frames, but the metrics make it difficult to believe that Falter won’t soon falter.

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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.