Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
Each week in this article, players due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to view each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it. Here are our top fantasy baseball regression candidates for Week 12.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
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- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through June 10, 2024
Players Due for Positive Regression
Alec Bohm was never going to maintain the offensive tear he had from mid-April to mid-May. In a 30-game span, he hit .374 alongside a 1.013 OPS with four homers, 17 doubles and 35 RBI. The tumble he has taken over the few weeks since then, however, has been an overcorrection, to say the least.
In his last 15 games, Bohm has managed to scratch out only 10 hits in 59 at-bats (.169 AVG) while slugging a mere .271 with just one long ball. Do not expect his egregious .173 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to last much longer. Per Statcast, Bohm has a .326 xBA in this span. That is the result of some promising metrics, which include a 47.2 Hard-Hit%, 13.2 Barrel% and 87.5 Contact%. Bohm’s line-drive rate has been down a bit but is still decent at 20.8%. Look for that to tick up along with his output in the coming days.
Just when it seemed Peralta was back on track with two dominant performances to close out the month of May, he begins June with a couple of clunkers against two of the weaker offenses in the league. Over 8 1/3 innings against the White Sox and Tigers in his last two starts, Peralta surrendered seven runs (six earned) on eight hits and six walks, extending a streak of inconsistency that stretches back to April.
Peralta came out of the gates this season looking like a Cy Young contender, as he cruised to a 1.90 ERA and 33:4 K:BB ratio across 23 2/3 innings over his first four starts. Since then, it has been an up-and-down path for fantasy managers to endure with the Milwaukee right-hander. He has remained an ever-reliable source of strikeouts (29.4%), but Peralta’s 4.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 10.9 BB% have been tough to deal with over his last nine starts.
There is reason to believe Peralta will find a good groove once again despite that shaky stretch. He has recorded an elite 28.2 Hard-Hit% and 85.3 miles per hour EV. Those rank fourth and third in the league among all qualifying pitchers in that span while his 13.1 SwStr% and 72.0 Contact% sit inside the top 15. His groundball rate has trended back up (42.9%) over his last four outings, and it has all resulted in an encouraging 3.64 xFIP being hidden by that near-5.00 mark.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Heliot Ramos has been on a roll at the dish, crushing six homers over his last 20 games. That power surge has been accompanied by an outstanding .329/.430/.603 slash line, 16 RBI, and a 57.1 Hard-Hit%. The 24-year-old slugger has also shown impressive patience, drawing walks at a 14.0% clip. There have been some red flags, though.
Despite Ramos’ grasp on the zone, he has still struck out 24 times (27.9%) across 86 plate appearances during this stretch. On top of that, a .419 BABIP is simply unsustainable, particularly considering his penchant for hitting the ball on the ground (57.1 %) combined with a lack of line drives (12.2%). Ramos certainly has the ability with the bat, but do not expect his elite production to last long.
Michael Lorenzen only lasted 4 1/3 innings in his most recent outing this past Friday. Still, he held the Giants to two earned runs, marking the fifth straight start in which he has surrendered two or fewer. In that span, he has posted a stellar 1.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .192 AVG across 30 innings. It’s been a nice run, but the downturn may have already begun.
Lorenzen gave up seven hits in that start against the Giants, including two homers. It was his shortest outing of the season through 10 starts, and the second-most hits he has allowed. The home runs were the first he had given up in a month. Lorenzen had also struck out 21 batters in 25 2/3 innings over his previous four starts, but he only managed one on Friday.
With an 11.9 BB% and a .225 BABIP in those last five starts, good fortune has played a part in Lorenzen limiting runs. A 4.63 xFIP and .248 XBA do not inspire confidence that the trend will continue.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
