Fantasy Baseball Mailbag: Royce Lewis, Julio Rodriguez, Garrett Crochet, Wyatt Langford

Welcome back to the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Mailbag. The mailbag is an opportunity to ask a FantasyPros analyst anything about the ongoing season to make the best and most informed decisions possible. Questions from fantasy baseball managers this week can be seen below.

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Fantasy Baseball Mailbag

Buy high on Royce Lewis?

I rarely think it’s ever a good idea to buy a player high.

Think of it this way. Royce Lewis missed extensive time this season and fantasy managers had to stash their exciting young third baseman on the injured list (IL) for months.

Now Lewis has made it off IL, diving into a season with 10 homers in just 18 games and a 250 OPS+.

Any fantasy manager is utterly in love with Lewis right now. Even the ones concerned with his injury history would refuse to sell Lewis for cheap.

I struggle to picture a league where Lewis is traded away with the fair value of an injury-prone player who has only played in 88 games over three major league seasons.

Wait for Lewis to settle down from his incredible yet unsustainable pace before attempting any trades. Some of the worst fantasy moves can be made when buying too far into hype.

Will Julio Rodriguez turn things around soon?

Julio Rodriguez should get better. Probably.

He looked like he was heating up earlier this month, batting .308 in the first 10 games of June. Disappointingly, Rodriguez is now batting only .160 in his last 13 games.

The Mariners outfielder is far from the star we were promised, but I think patience is the key with him. Fantasy managers who roster Rodriguez have needed patience for him all year, to a frustrating level, and it doesn’t make sense to sell low at this point after holding Rodriguez all season.

A comforting stat is that Rodriguez batted .220 in June of 2023 until he turned things around with a .292 July average and an incredible .429/.474/.724 August slash line.

Be patient with the young star. History shows he should turn things around.

Thoughts on trading away Garrett Crochet?

Garrett Crochet has emerged as one of baseball’s young stars. His 12.4 K/9, 3.05 ERA and 0.943 WHIP certainly supports this statement.

However, fantasy managers must keep in mind his innings situation. Crochet has already thrown 94.1 innings this year, 40 innings over his previous career-high.

Pitchers need to build up to handle the demands of an increased innings workload, meaning Crochet must be provided rest to remain healthy. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol confirmed the team will reduce Crochet’s workload. This practice can lead to skipped starts, bullpen sessions and shorter pitch counts in games. In summary, workload concerns are not good for fantasy. Trading away Crochet is a good idea if a beneficial offer is presented. Crochet’s second half is unlikely to be as good as his first half.

Drop Nolan Arenado for Wyatt Langford in redraft formats?

Dropping Nolan Arenado for Wyatt Langford isn’t all that crazy to me.

Still, would I make that move? No. There has to be a worse player to drop. Even so, we can treat this in a vacuum and choose between the two players ignoring individual team context.

Arenado currently has a 94 OPS+. Langford has a 95 OPS+. Neither have been above-average hitters. Despite his lower OPS+, Arenado has hit for more power and contact with a higher on-base-percentage (OBP) than Langford this year. Arenado is slashing .257/.315/.371 compared to Langford’s .254/.311/.368. This marginal difference encourages me to choose Arenado here, but there is more to the equation.

Arenado is 33. His best days are behind him. Meanwhile, Langford is a 22-year-old sensation. Plus he steals more bases. Langford holds a towering upside not evident in Arenado’s profile.

I would not drop Arenado. Again, I ask you to find a worse player to drop, but dropping Arenado for Langford isn’t a stupid move.