Welcome back to the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Mailbag. The mailbag is an opportunity to ask a FantasyPros analyst anything about the ongoing season to make the best and most informed decisions possible. Questions from fantasy baseball managers this week can be seen below.
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Fantasy Baseball Mailbag
Who are the best pitching stashes?
Last fantasy baseball season, a handful of top players were hurt or inactive on draft day (Fernando Tatis, Bryce Harper, etc.). Managers who capitalized on this were able to field an impressive playoff roster. A somewhat similar strategy exists this season.
Many talented pitchers are expected to pitch soon before or after the All-Star break (ASB). Max Scherzer has already led the charge with his return, but more are coming:
- Clayton Kershaw (After ASB): The future Hall of Famer had shoulder surgery earlier this year, causing him to miss most of the season. The 36-year-old will not throw many innings after a recent shoulder setback halted his rehab starts. Even so, Clayton Kershaw brings a 2.48 career ERA into 2024 and should provide value for fantasy managers as the playoffs approach.
- Jacob deGrom (After ASB): Everyone knows Jacob deGrom is a special talent. Everyone also knows he can’t stay healthy. He will be healthy in August, hopefully, and ready to lead fantasy teams. The double Cy Young winner is too good of a stash to pass up on.
- Jeffrey Springs (Before ASB): Jeffrey Springs is not nearly as noticeable as the other pitchers here, but he should be back the soonest. He is targeting a mid-July return. Springs may show flashes of his 2022 form where he threw 135.1 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with 9.6 K/9.
- Robbie Ray (After ASB): The 2021 Cy Young winner has been recovering from Tommy John surgery in rehab. So far, Robbie Ray has struck out 17 and allowed four runs in 9.1 innings of minor league work. Ray is an excellent source of strikeouts — his career K/9 is 11.0. Stash him.
Keep MacKenzie Gore or Brandon Pfaadt?
This is a tough one, but my gut says MacKenzie Gore in most formats.
Both pitchers are young with bright futures and Gore has had another year to develop. Brandon Pfaadt’s current stats are similar to the numbers from Gore’s first two seasons (with fewer strikeouts). Both Gore and Pfaadt have gotten better with age.
Advanced stats reveal Pfaadt has been very unlucky. His expected ERA is a whole run below his actual ERA (3.43 vs. 4.45). Gore’s advanced stats show he has been helped by a bit of luck, with a 3.79 expected ERA compared to his actual 3.60 mark.
The Diamondbacks and Nationals currently have very similar records. Team ability is not a very big deal in this question.
Although Pfaadt has been unlucky, I prefer Gore since he is the better strikeout option. Gore has 99 strikeouts to Pfaadt’s 86 in 12 fewer innings pitched.
Trade away Jarren Duran and Tyler Glasnow for Aaron Judge?
Yes.
Jarren Duran is having an amazing year. He’s been so good. Do you know who’s been way better? Aaron Judge.
The cost of upgrading Duran in this case is Tyler Glasnow. That’s expensive. But come on. It’s Aaron Judge amidst another MVP-level year. He already has over 30 homers.
I prefer a top bat to a top pitcher since the bat hits every day. Get Judge.
Trade away Tyler Glasnow for Bryce Harper?
I consider this trade to be a lot closer than most people might. Tyler Glasnow could win the Cy Young if he stays healthy and Bryce Harper could win the MVP if he stays on track and returns from the injured list (IL) as soon as Phillies management claims he will return.
As long as your team is in a good position right now, I would ignore Harper’s current injured designation. He should probably be back in around a week. Maybe wait a few more days if it’s a cause for worry.
This trade comes down to team needs. If a team needs a top bat, trade for Harper. If it needs a top pitcher, keep Glasnow.
I would trade for Harper because I don’t trust Glasnow’s injury history. Harper hasn’t been the portrait of perfect health, though.
Glasnow and Harper are talented players and it comes down to team need.
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