The CJ Cup Byron Nelson: One-and-Done Picks & Predictions

We’re back with another edition of one-and-done picks and predictions for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson following the Zurich Classic team format last weekend, which saw Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry emerge victorious.

TPC Craig Ranch is the course where we’ll be watching 156 golfers compete this week, hoping to qualify for the next Signature Event at Wells Fargo Championship. Last year, Jason Day ended his multi-year losing slump with a one-stroke win over the field at 23-under-par. Ranking as one of the easier courses to play on the PGA Tour schedule, expect a lot of birdies and eagles playing on this par 72 track that has zoysiagrass fairways and bentgrass greens that run 11.5 feet via Stimpmeter.

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Big Guns

Stephan Jaeger
The only golfer who withstood Scottie Scheffler’s clinical performances these past couple of months has been Stephan Jaeger. The German golfer also managed a T11 finish at TPC Craig Ranch a year ago. Ranked 13th strokes gained around the green and 28th strokes gained off-the-tee, there’s a reason Jaeger has three top-ten finishes in 2024, including his first outright win at the Houston Open. If you have Jaeger, deploy him at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

Jordan Spieth
It’s been a difficult year for Jordan Spieth, but maybe a return to TPC Craig Ranch, right outside of the Dallas and Fort Worth metro areas, could give him a boost. Spieth has been dominant at TPC Craig Ranch in the past few years, finishing runner-up in 2022 and T9 in 2021. He’s never won outright here, but his ridiculous scrambling ability bodes well for his performance this week.

Secondary Options

Byeong Hun An

Ranking 18th strokes gained off-the-tee, Byeong Hun An turned in a strong T14 finish at the 2023 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He’s 21st in hole proximity and 18th greens in regulation, making the South Korean golfer a strong secondary option to use in one-and-done formats this week.

Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim nearly won this event in 2023. Kim has been solid of late, recording three finishes of T18 or better in his last four events played. Ranked inside the top-30 for strokes gained off-the-tee, approaching the green, and around the green, Kim is another great prospect to use at a birdie-fest like TPC Craig Ranch.

Sneaky Plays

Nate Lashley
Nate Lashley went 15-under-par at this event in 2023 and has been good in 2023. Lashley is particularly strong with his irons, ranking 45th strokes gained on approach and 39th strokes gained around the green. His putting needs to be tuned up, but Lashley typically hits his driver well. If he can avoid a slow start, as he tends to finish with much better scores, Lashley is the definition of a sneaky play in survivor contests.

Mackenzie Hughes
Mackenzie Hughes has been quietly improving his play in the past few weeks. The Canadian golfer went T39 at the RBC Heritage, regressing a bit, but he previously managed a T3 finish at Valspar and a T14 finish at the Houston Open. Ranked fourth strokes gained around the green, along with 54th strokes gained putting, Hughes is a prime sleeper candidate, finishing T14 a year ago, going 6-under-par or better in three of four rounds played.

Favorite One-And-Done: Tom Hoge

Tom Hoge didn’t fare well in 2023 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, finishing T43. So why is he my favorite one-and-done golfer this week? Hoge is rounding into form at the right time. He’s ranked second strokes gained on approach and 30th strokes gained putting. His off-the-tee skillset has been brutal though, holding him back from contending for an outright win in 2024.

In 2022 at TPC Craig Ranch, Hoge went T17, never straying higher than 4-under-par. He has two top-ten finishes in 2024, and could have more, if not for several late implosions in the final round. It’s a bit risky, but Hoge projects well at this event, primarily due to his iron accuracy and putting ability.

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