NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel (Monday)

We’re in the second week of Conference Semis, so we’re getting close to elimination games. The good news is that we won’t get any sweeps, but these series’ could swing drastically tonight as we put together our NBA DFS lineup picks. Dallas and Boston are one win away from commanding 3-1 leads, and both clubs are expected to win. We believe the OKC-Dallas series will be in for the long haul, but seeing the Celtics finish things up on Wednesday wouldn’t be surprising. We still have a ton to be decided until then, so let’s go ahead and dive into this Monday card and my top NBA DFS picks.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel

Schedule and Odds

• BOS at CLE (BOS -8.5) O/U: 208 BOS UP 2-1
• OKC at DAL (DAL -2.5) O/U: 214.5 DAL UP 2-1

Check out our consensus game odds and the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros.

Injury Report

• Kristaps Porzingis (leg) OUT
• Jarrett Allen (ribs) Questionable
• Luka Doncic (knee) Probable
• Maxi Kleber (shoulder) OUT
• Donovan Mitchell (carrying the team) Questionable

NBA DFS: Core Plays

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS): $9,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
Boston is the favorite for a reason, and Tatum is the straw that stirs the drink for this team. He averaged over 48 DraftKings points per game during the regular season, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in all but one game this year. That floor and average make him one of the best core plays out there. He’s also averaged 55 DraftKings points per game in the postseason since last year. In addition, JT has scored at least 45 DK points in all six matchups with Cleveland this year, dropping 62 DK points in his most recent outing.

Evan Mobley (PF/C – CLE): $7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Mobley has taken his game to another level with Jarrett Allen sidelined, seeing his minutes, shot attempts, and rebounds all rise in his absence. That’s led to Mobley scoring at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last four fixtures. This defensive stud flirted with a 40-point average when Allen was out during the year, and with that ability, he should be above $8K on DraftKings.

NBA DFS: Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,200 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Doncic was a cash game option on 12-game cards throughout the regular season, so we obviously can’t fade him on a two-game slate. The superstar led the NBA with 66 DraftKings points per game during the regular season and has a 70-point average since the break. We haven’t seen that 70-point average in this series, but as long as he plays 40-45 minutes and takes 25 shots a night, Doncic is the best bet for 50-70 DK points on every slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $9,800 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
SGA finished second in MVP voting, averaging 53 DraftKings points per game during the regular season. He did that damage while establishing a 40-point floor, but he’s taken his game to another level in this series. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 60 DK points in three straight games, which is no surprise since Dallas posted a 22nd OPRK against opposing guards.

NBA DFS: GPP Targets

Jrue Holiday (PG/SG – BOS): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Holiday has struggled throughout the postseason, but seeing him below $6K is bizarre. This guy has been closer to $8,000 for most of his career, and the Porzingis injury has forced him into a more substantial workload. That’s led to Jrue scoring at least 27 DK points in four of his last five fixtures while dropping 39 fantasy points in his most recent outing. We’ve seen this guy average 40 DK points per game for months at a time, and we’re willing to take the risk on him at this diminished price tag.

Daniel Gafford (C – DAL): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Dallas can be a frustrating team to figure out when it comes to DG’s playing time, but this guy is a beast whenever he plays 25 minutes. In the 42 games he’s played at least 25 minutes, Gafford is averaging 38 DraftKings points per game. We’ve also seen him score 42 DK points in two of his last four matchups with OKC, and it feels like 25 minutes should be his floor since Kleber is still sidelined.

NBA DFS: Value Plays

PJ Washington (PF/C – DAL): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Washington has been the Mavs most valuable player in this series. The Charlotte send-off averaged 27 DK points per game during the regular season but has 40 and 59 fantasy points in the last two games of this series. We don’t expect him to drop 40-60 DK points from here on out, but all you need is 30-35 DK points for PJ to be of immense value. The role is what makes it look likely to continue because he’s locked into 40 minutes and double-digit shots with Kleber out.

Al Horford (PF/C – BOS): $5,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Big Al has always been a better player as a starter. They always get him into the starting unit when someone is injured, with Horford starting at center in the absence of Porzingis. In his 37 starts this season, Al is averaging 28 DK points per game across 30 minutes a night. That average is above 30 fantasy points when KP is out, but we expect that to be his floor if he matches the 39 minutes we saw in Game 3!

Luguentz Dort (SF – OKC): $4,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Dort doesn’t have a massive upside, but he’s one of the safest bets to play 40 minutes. OKC needs him out there to guard Doncic, playing exactly 40 minutes in the Game 3 defeat. That means he should be guaranteed 30-35 minutes, with Dort averaging 28 DK points per game when he plays over 30 minutes this year. If you get that from a sub-$5K player, you have one of the pieces of the optimal lineup.

Advantageous Pricing

• Evan Mobley (PF/C – CLE): $7,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG/SG – OKC): $9,800 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
• PJ Washington (PF/C – DAL): $6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

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