Yesterday’s MLB slate was stacked from a pitching perspective, making it difficult to navigate for DFS picks. That’s certainly not going to be the case in today’s MLB DFS picks article because finding four pitchers we wanted to recommend was challenging. That typically happens after such a stacked slate, but it should allow us to build some interesting lineups. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday card! We’ll examine our top MLB DFS picks along with our favorite player prop bets.
Yesterday’s MLB slate was stacked from a pitching perspective, making it difficult to navigate for DFS picks. That’s certainly not going to be the case in today’s MLB DFS picks article because finding four pitchers we wanted to recommend was challenging. That typically happens after such a stacked slate, but it should allow us to build some interesting lineups. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday card! We’ll examine our top MLB DFS picks along with our favorite player prop bets.
Today’s MLB DFS Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB DFS picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball.
MLB DFS Picks: Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Javier Assad (CHC) vs. MIL
I wouldn’t go as far as calling Assad an ace, but he’s much closer than some people might expect. He broke out with a 2.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the final three months of last season and has backed it up with a 1.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this year. His home form is even more ridiculous, registering a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at Wrigley Field. Milwaukee has been a good offense, but they rank 18th in K rate and have some holes in their lineup.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. DET
Nasty Nestor has also been an underrated asset over recent years. The lefty has a 3.18 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across the last four years. Those are All-Star caliber numbers, generating a 3.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across his last four starts. We love that in a home meeting with Detroit, ranked 20th in K rate and 24th in wOBA.
Garrett Crochet (CWS) at STL
Crochet’s 5.97 ERA is ugly, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The lefty has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.48 xERA, 2.68 SIERA, and 2.90 FIP. That’s more indicative of who this guy is, scoring at least 29 FanDuel points in four of his seven starts. Another one of those gems could be in play against the Cards, with St. Louis sitting 27th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored.
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. COL
This one could come back to bite us, but it’s hard to overlook how fantastic Falter has been recently. The Pirates lefty has a 2.89 ERA and 0.79 WHIP since struggling in the opener. That’s a dominant five-start stretch, and we don’t want to fade him against the Rockies. Colorado ranks last in xwOBA while sitting 29th or 30th in runs scored and OPS on the road in three straight seasons. We also rarely see a player this cheap who’s a -160 favorite!
MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks
This might sound strange on the surface, but Paxton could be in trouble here. The left-hander has been lucky to post a 3.51 ERA this year because his 1.68 WHIP is unsightly. There’s no chance a fantastic offense like Atlanta will be limited like that if Paxton keeps putting everyone on base because this is a top-five offense in nearly every meter.
San Diego Padres (vs. Ryne Nelson)
San Diego has quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranked second in runs scored. That’s no surprise with multiple All-Stars in the top half of the lineup, and they should continue that success against Nelson. The Arizona righty has a 4.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season, which isn’t far off his 5.31 ERA and 1.42 WHIP last year!
MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs
- We just discussed how poor Nelson has been for the D’Backs, and we definitely want to use the Padres best bat against them. That’s Tatis, averaging about 40 homers and 30 steals per 160 games played. He’s a Top 5 player in fantasy points per game throughout his career and has 20 and 26 DK points in two of his last three outings!
- Albies made a quick return from a broken toe, and we always love to use him against left-handers. The second baseman has a .402 OBP and 1.003 OPS against left-handers since the start of last season! He’s also got a hit in all seven games since returning from the IL, generating a .333 AVG and .842 OPS in that span.
- Ramirez got off to a rough start this season, but this perennial All-Star will get it going. Much like Tatis, he’s been a Top 5 position player in fantasy over the last five years, averaging about 30 homers and 25 steals per year since 2018. He’s also been much better against righties in that span, which is awesome since he faces Griffin Canning‘s 7.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
- I was as high as anyone on EDLC in the offseason, but no one could’ve foreseen a start like this. The speedster has been the best player in fantasy, ranked second in MLB with 12.4 DK points per game. The power-speed combo has led to that absurd average, tallying seven doubles, eight homers, 19 steals, 27 runs, and 19 RBI! Most of that damage has come with the platoon advantage in his favor, and it’s not like Dean Kremer‘s 4.19 ERA will stray us away.
MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts
- Cronenworth has one of the best batting spots in baseball. He hits third every day for the Padres, right between Tatis and Manny Machado. That’s given him some great pitches to look at, collecting a .400 OBP and 1.026 OPS against right-handers this year. He also comes into this matchup scorching, sporting a 1.182 OPS across his last seven fixtures!
- There aren’t many cheap Atlanta bats, but Duvall is one of them. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities behind all the All-Stars, but it’s difficult to overlook his superb splits. Duvall has a .361 OBP and .500 SLG against left-handers this year, but that’s on par with what he’s done against them since 2016.
- It’s been a tough opening month for Cruz in Pittsburgh, but this guy is too talented to be struggling like this. The speedy shortstop has some of the best advanced metrics in baseball, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets hot. A matchup with a right with a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP is an excellent way to kickstart it, with Cruz compiling a .801 OPS against them since his call-up.
- We won’t have many Oakland bats in this section, but we have to use guys when they’re this hot. Nevin has been one of the best bats in baseball recently, accruing a .355 AVG, .742 SLG, and 1.124 OPS across his last 12 games.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Freddy Peralta: 16.5 Outs – Higher
Peralta just needs to get two outs in the sixth inning to complete this prop. He’s surpassed this number in four of six starts and was one out shy when he got ejected in his last start across 66 pitches. That means he’s done it in 83 percent of the games this year, a bet we’re willing to make again!
Jose Ramirez: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
We already discussed why we like J-Ram, but he should easily clear this prop with one extra-base hit.
Paul Goldschmidt: 0.5 Total Bases – Higher
Goldy has a career BA of over .300 against left-handers, and he’s facing one with an ERA above 5.00. We’ll take the risk on him getting one hit in this situation!
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
