MLB DFS & Player Props Picks: Saturday (5/4)

Last weekend was my best set of articles of the season, and it has me ready to keep rolling here. We finally feel like we’re getting a good read on these lineups and rotations, which is as important as anything when playing DFS. We actually have a slate full of solid pitching, and it was challenging to narrow it down to just four guys. With that said, let’s get started with those arms!

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Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs. SF
It will be nearly impossible to fade Suarez until we see him falter. The Phillies lefty has been the best pitcher in baseball, providing a 5-0 record thanks to his 1.32 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. He’s allowed just one run across his last four starts and has struck out at least eight batters in all of them. He’s also scored at least 46 FanDuel points in all of those and shouldn’t have any issues with a 23rd-ranked San Fran offense.

Jared Jones (PIT) vs. COL
This kid is electric and could be in line for a career start against Colorado. The Rockies have the worst xwOBA in MLB, ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored and OPS on the road in three straight seasons. We’d use any pitcher against them, but Jones has a 3.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in a breakout rookie season. He’s also scored at least 36 FD points in all but one start, but that should be his floor here.

Lance Lynn (STL) vs. CWS
Lynn’s 1.40 WHIP is hideous, but we expect that to regress to his career norms. This guy had a 1.09 WHIP between 2020 and 2022, generating a 2.64 ERA this year. That excellent ERA should be easy to duplicate against Chicago, with the White Sox ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and wOBA. All of that has Lynn entering this matchup as a -200 favorite!

Ben Lively (CLE) vs. LAA
The Guardians always seem to pull random starters out of nowhere, and that’s what they’ve found with Lively. He’s allowed just four runs in his three starts, compiling a 2.30 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The career numbers make him a tough sell, but we have to trust him in a matchup like this. The Angels rank 23rd in K rate and 18th in OBP but could fall to the bottom of every offensive category with Mike Trout injured and Shohei Ohtani playing for the other LA team.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Austin Gomber)

• Home (PNC Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8 Runs/PIT -210

It’s hard to fade any offense that faces Colorado. The Rockies have the worst ERA and WHIP in baseball, sending out Gomber here. The lefty has a 5.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP since 2022. This is also a Pittsburgh team that’s much better against left-handers, and we’ll get into that later when we recommend some of their bats!

Minnesota Twins (vs. Boston Bullpen)

• Home (Target Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIN -165

Anderson hasn’t been announced as the starter yet, but Boston will have to lean on him with no one else available. That’s bad news for Boston, with Anderson accruing a 6.14 ERA and 1.44 WHIP since 2020. He might be the worst starter in baseball in that four-year span, and it’s scary since this Twins lineup is starting to get hot. They’re averaging 7.4 runs per game in their current 10-game winning streak!

UPDATE: It looks like Boston will go with a bullpen game, but that still makes them a team we want to stack against.

Core Studs

• Walker has been one of the most prolific power hitters over the last three years, hitting 76 homers since the 2022 season. That’s one of the highest marks in the sport, with Christian collecting a .441 OBP and 1.293 OPS across his last eight outings. That fantastic form makes him a formidable option against Michael King, compiling a 5.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
• Palacios has quietly been Tampa’s best bat this season. The talented rookie has three homers and four steals en route to a .310 AVG, .430 OBP and .895 OPS. His splits are even more astonishing, sporting a .446 OBP and .931 OPS against right-handers. That’s rough for a rookie like Christian Scott, who is making his MLB debut!
• This Toronto lineup has been terrible, but Turner has been torrid. The veteran third baseman has a .298 AVG, .376 OBP, and .887 OPS in yet another sparkling season. That’s what we’ve seen for nearly a decade now, and we don’t want to fade him against a pitcher with a 4.54 career ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
• Reynolds has been carrying this Buccos offense for years, but he’s one of the best options on the board, especially considering his splits. The Pittsburgh outfielder has a .368 AVG, .442 OBP, and 1.073 OPS against lefties this year. We already discussed how bad Gomber has been, and we’d love Reynolds even more if he gets some cracks at this bullpen, too!

Value Plays/Punts

• We rarely recommend anybody from Oakland, but this guy is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Nevin has a .389 AVG, .750 SLG, and 1.145 OPS across his last nine outings. He’s also got some of the best splits in the sport, totaling a .406 OBP and 1.110 OPS against lefties this year. We’re not worried about the Trevor Rogers matchup, registering a 4.31 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
• We wanted some exposure to the Cubs lineup, facing Tobias Myers. The rookie has only made one start and was far from impressive in the minors, posting a 5.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 351 innings at Double-A and Triple-A. That should bode well for a hitter like Happ, who has accrued a .359 OBP and .788 OPS against righties over the last three years.
• We probably should have included more Minnesota players because Boston’s bullpen is in a tough spot here. Larnach has been one of the sparks to their 10-game winning streak, providing a .486 OBP and 1.175 OPS across his last eight games while amassing a 1.045 OPS against right-handers this year. Don’t forget about guys like Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, and Ryan Jeffers in this stack!
• Since his call-up, Hayes has been crushing left-handers, collecting a .444 OBP and .912 OPS against them this year. Those are superb splits from such an affordable player, and we don’t want to overlook that against a gas can like Gomber.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Juan Soto: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (x1.25)

I would’ve used this prop if it were at even money, but getting it at x1.25 is fantastic. Soto has been one of the best players in baseball and only needs one extra-base hit to clear this prop in a great matchup.

Lance Lynn: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Lynn has been struggling with his strikeouts recently, but facing the worst offense in baseball should get him back on track. He still has a K rate above 25 percent over the last four years, and if he matches that, he could reach 7-8 Ks.

Kevin Gausman: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Gausman is having his worst season in a few years, but he is too good to be this poor. He has a 3.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last four years and should slice through this 20th-ranked Washington offense. We expect him to throw 6-7 innings, and he should reach this prop easily if that’s the case.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.