Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has five games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The small slate also has intriguing pick ’em options at PrizePicks and Underdog. Here are our top MLB DFS picks for Thursday along with our best MLB PrizePicks and Underdog player predictions.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has five games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. The small slate also has intriguing pick ’em options at PrizePicks and Underdog. Here are our top MLB DFS picks for Thursday along with our best MLB PrizePicks and Underdog player predictions.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS Picks & Player Props Bets
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. CIN
Tyler Glasnow is firing on all cylinders. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 33.0 innings, Glasnow has had a 2.73 ERA, 2.41 SIERA, 0.94 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, 34.6 K%, 28.9 CSW%, 115 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. He's also spun four consecutive quality starts, striking out 10, nine, 10 and 10 batters in those turns.
Glasnow has a tasty matchup tonight. This season, the Reds are 27th in wRC+ (84) with a 26.7 K% versus righties and tied for 18th in wRC+ (90) with a 27.0 K% on the road. In the previous 14 days, they were 29th in wRC+ (76) with a 22.0 K%. Predictably, the betting info is ideal. The Dodgers are -325, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. PIT
Justin Steele loves home cooking. In 106.2 innings at home since last season, Steele has had a 2.53 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 5.0 BB% and 24.2 K%. Unfortunately, the lefty has a 4.73 ERA, 4.24 xERA and 4.15 SIERA through his first three starts this year. Obviously, that's a tiny sample. Steele's pitch modeling is stellar, too. This year, he has 100 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 109 Pitching+.
Steele's matchup is a mixed bag. The Pirates are tied for 12th in wRC+ (109) against lefties in 2024, but they have an exploitable 25.1 K%. Pittsburgh is also tied for 18th in wRC+ (90) this season with a 26.1 K% on the road. They're also in a funk, tying for 25th in wRC+ (81) with a 24.7 K% in the previous 14 days. Finally, the Cubs are -125, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/LAD -325
Nick Martinez will likely serve as the bulk reliever for the Reds tonight after Brent Suter starts. The veteran righty has started four games and made five relief appearances this season, tallying a 4.86 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 4.23 SIERA and 1.35 WHIP. However, he was crushed as a starter. In four starts spanning 21.0 innings this season, Martinez has a 6.86 ERA, 4.85 SIERA and 1.62 WHIP. In 17 relief appearances totaling 25.2 innings this season, Suter has a 3.86 ERA, 4.27 xERA, 3.57 SIERA and 1.21 WHIP. Cincinnati's bullpen is also below average, enhancing LA's offensive ceiling.
Core Studs
- In 197 plate appearances this season, Shohei Ohtani has hit 12 homers and stolen nine bases with a .429 OBP, .314 ISO and 210 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Freddie Freeman has had a .420 OBP, .211 ISO and 160 wRC+ against righties, which will serve him well against Martinez. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has also had a .364 OBP, .191 ISO and 133 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
Value Plays/Punts
- In 320 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Edmundo Sosa has hit 10 homers with a .311 OBP, .216 ISO and 113 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Gavin Lux has had a .340 OBP and 107 wRC+ against righties. He's also had an acceptable 102 wRC+ in his past 50 plate appearances.
- In 21 plate appearances this season, Tyler Soderstrom has hit one homer with a .381 OBP, .263 ISO and 177 wRC+. He also had a 112 wRC+ in 119 plate appearances in Triple-A this year.
- In 33 plate appearances this season, Joey Loperfido has had a .364 OBP and 111 wRC+, albeit with an unsustainable .526 BABIP. Furthermore, in 122 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, Loperfido hit 13 homers and stole five bases with a .393 OBP, .426 ISO and 153 wRC+.
Thursday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Josh Lowe: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog Fantasy 1.05x Scorcher)
Josh Lowe: 1.5 Total Bases - More (PrizePicks Demon Multiplier)
Josh Lowe is off to a fast start since his activation from the Injured List (IL). In 33 plate appearances this season, Lowe has a .300 batting average, .313 xBA, .533 slugging, .539 xSLG, .233 ISO, four doubles and one homer.
Lowe has also thrived with the platoon advantage on the road. In 319 plate appearances against righties on the road since debuting in 2021, Lowe has hit 19 doubles, two triples and 17 homers with a .305 batting average, .558 slugging and .253 ISO. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has had over 1.5 total bases in three of his previous four games.
The matchup isn't too shabby, and Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue. Since last season, Cooper Criswell has yielded a .274 batting average and .443 slugging to 120 left-handed batters. Fenway Park has left-handed batter park factors of 1.111 for singles, 1.409 for doubles, 2.340 for triples and 0.887 for homers.
Mookie Betts: 9.0 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Mookie Betts: 8.0 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Mookie Betts is elite against all pitching. Since 2021, he's had a 169 wRC+ against southpaws and a 147 wRC+ against righties. Therefore, when Suter gets the hook, Betts will be fine. Betts is also going off this season. In 209 plate appearances in 2024, Betts has hit seven homers and stolen eight bases with a .445 OBP, .213 ISO and 190 wRC+.
Shohei Ohtani: 10.0 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Shohei Ohtani: 8.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Shohei Ohtani, like Betts, is awesome against all pitching. Since 2021, Ohtani has had a 137 wRC+ against lefties and a 174 wRC+ against righties. Again, like Betts, Ohtani is obliterating baseballs this season. In 198 plate appearances in 2024, Ohtani has hit 12 homers with nine stolen bases and a .431 OBP, .312 ISO and 212 wRC+. Finally, Betts's and Ohtani's overs for fantasy points correlate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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