MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (5/19)

MLB DFS is one of the most difficult sports out there, but it’s fun to try to put the puzzle pieces together to build a perfect lineup. It rarely works out that way, but I was about one xander boegarts homer away from a monster cash earlier in the week. Sweating at-bats in the final games of the night is always exciting, and it’s something that brings DFS managers coming back for more!

With that in mind, let’s dive into this Sunday slate! Here are my top MLB DFS picks and player prop bets.

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Sunday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. CIN
Yoshi’s poor debut had people wondering if he was a poor signing, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball since that Korean start. The Japanese pitcher has scored at least 40 FanDuel points in six of eight starts since then, tallying a 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 rate in that span. Those are Cy Young-type averages, and we love that he faces a Cincy club with the fewest runs over the last three weeks.

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. WAS
Nola was unhittable in his most recent start. The Phillies ace threw a complete game shutout in that dominant performance, providing a 2.35 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 8.7 K.9 rate since getting obliterated in his opener. That’s the stud we’ve been waiting to see, and we definitely don’t want to fade him in a wonderful matchup with Washington. The Nationals rank 25th in runs scored and 24th in wOBA. Not to mention, Nola is a -260 favorite.

Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs. PIT
Taillon has quietly had a revival season in Chicago. The former Pittsburgh pitcher has scored at least 26 FanDuel points in all but one start, sporting a 1.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Carrying that form into a revenge game against his former team should be easy since the Pirates rank 26th in runs scored, 25th in K rate, and 28th in wOBA.

Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. CWS
Many fantasy experts are low on Rodon, but I don’t understand why. This guy had a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP between 2021 and 2022, recapturing that form this season. The lefty has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of nine starts, generating a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in those outings. His only stinker was against a bludgeoning Baltimore lineup, but Chicago is nowhere near them. In fact, the White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and wOBA, with Rodon entering this matchup as a -300 favorite.

Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. COL
Hicks had his start pushed back from yesterday, so we’ll include him here as a bonus! We always used solid pitchers when the Rockies are on the road. Colorado has the worst xwOBA in baseball this season but has been bottom three in runs scored and OPS on the road in three straight seasons. They rarely reach four runs in San Fran, which is scary with how good Hicks has looked this season. The hard-throwing righty has a 2.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, allowing three runs or fewer in all nine starts! He’s also got a 1.86 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at ORACLE Park, playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball!

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

San Francisco Giants (vs. Dakota Hudson)

• Home (ORACLE Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/SF -200

We stack against the Rockies almost every weekend because this has been the worst pitching staff in baseball since they were founded 30 years ago. That’s evident this season, with the Rockies ranked last in ERA and WHIP. San Fran always steps up when they face this crappy Colorado pitching staff, which should continue since Hudson has a 6.13 ERA and 1.69 WHIP this year. They a;ready have 24 runs in the first two games of this series!

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Spencer Arrighetti)

• Road (Minute Maid Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/HOU -135

I hate to see my fellow Italian Americans struggle, but this Arrighetti guy is atrocious. The Houston fill-in has a 7.52 ERA and 1.90 WHIP and will lose this gig once this pitching staff gets healthier. We’d use any offense against them, but Milwaukee is a marvelous team to stack. Not only are they cheap, but the Brewers rank third in runs scored and OBP.

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• Judge was slow to get going this season, but he’s been unstoppable since the calendar turned to May. The former MVP has five doubles over the last three days, generating a .566 OBP and 1.590 OPS across his last 12 outings. That’s difficult to accomplish in a video game, making him an easy play against Chris Flexen, collecting a 4.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP throughout his career.
• Tucker is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, totaling a .457 OBP and 1.174 OPS across his last 29 games. That’s a month of MVP-type numbers, but it’s no surprise since he’s averaging nearly 30 homers and 25 steals over the last three seasons. He’s also been much better against righties, which won’t bode well for Colin Rea‘s 4.56 career ERA.
• Yelich has been killing it since coming off the IL, amassing a .524 OBP and 1.174 OPS across his last five fixtures. That’s amazingly not far off his season-long numbers, providing a .423 OBP and 1.079 OPS. If we stack against Arrighetti, Yelich should be the first player in your lineup.
• It’s tough to stack against Trevor Williams because of how he’s pitching right now, but he will inevitably hit some negative regression. It’s much more likely against this Top 3 offense, with Schwarber flirting with a .850 OPS against righties since joining the Phils. Schwarber has also slaughtered Williams throughout his career, compiling a .388 OBP and 1.150 OPS in 49 at-bats against him.

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Joc Jams has always been an elite option against right-handers, and he should have a prominent spot in this Arizona lineup. He has a .346 career OBP and .836 OPS against them while posting a .949 OPS this season. We love that at this cheap price, especially against Matt Manning‘s 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
• Lowe missed the opening month because of an oblique issue, but he hasn’t missed a beat since returning. Tampa’s two-hole hitter has a .369 OBP and .956 OPS. That’s no surprise since he had 20 dingers and 32 steals in a breakout 2023 season while posting a .982 OPS against righties this year. We don’t need to worry about Alek Manoah, totaling a 5.77 ERA and 1.70 WHIP since the start of last season.
• We always ride Wade whenever San Fran faces a weak righty. That’s what we have here, with Colorado sending out the aforementioned Hudson. That should have Wade in his usual Top 3 spot in the lineup, generating a .462 OBP and .884 OPS against right-handers this year.
• We don’t want to use too many hitters against Mitch Keller, but Happ has always been one of their best bats against righties. In fact, Happ has a .358 OBP and .787 OPS against them over the last three years,. Happ is the BvP play of the day, too, posting a .519 OBP and 1.410 OPS in 27 at-bats against Keller.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Spencer Arrighetti: 5.5 Strikeouts – Lower

This kid has one of the worst ERAs and WHIPs in baseball, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he doesn’t get through five innings. That means he’d have to strike out nearly half the batters he gets out, with Arrighetii failing to surpass this prop in four of his six starts. He’s never had more than seven Ks, and this total is too much with a career-high like that.

Jordan Hicks: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Hicks hasn’t been striking out batters at a high rate, but he did in the past. We believe he can recapture that strikeout form here, with Colorado ranked 28th in K rate. If he can get through six innings, Hicks should reach this 4.5 K-total at ease.

Aaron Judge: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

This guy is on fire right now. He’s surpassed this total in four of his last six games, generating a .586 OBP since May 4.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.