MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Saturday (5/18)

This has been one of the best weeks of the year in my season-long leagues, and it feels like I’m seeing MLB really well right now. What’s funny is that you can see everything perfectly for weeks at a time, and then everything changes in a nanosecond. That’s probably how many of these hitters feel when they see a 99 MPH fastball followed by an 82 MPH changeup.

In any case, I’m excited to dive into this Saturday slate, so let’s get started with the pitchers! Here are my top MLB DFS picks and player prop bets.

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Saturday’s MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. DET
Not many people talk about Gallen as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that’s what he is. The Arizona ace has a 3.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last three seasons. He’s been even better at Chase Field, compiling a 2.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 rate there in that same span. That would make him a worthy pick against anyone, but the Tigers are a tremendous matchup. The Motor City Kitties rank 23rd in K rate, 24th in runs scored, and 27th in wOBA.

Seth Lugo (KC) vs. OAK
Lugo has genuinely taken his game to another level this season. The Royals righty has scored at least 28 FanDuel points in all but one start, generating a 1.66 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. His recent form is even more ridiculous, registering a 1.26 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9 rate across his last four starts. We don’t expect Oakland to increase those averages much, sitting 27th in K rate and 28th in OBP.

Luis Severino (NYM) at MIA
Severino isn’t the stud we saw for the Yanks a few years ago, but he’s in the middle of a renaissance season. The Mets righty has scored at least 21 FanDuel points in all eight starts, accruing a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Those amazing averages should be easy to maintain against Miami, with the Marlins ranked 26th in runs scored, 29th in OBP, and 27th in xwOBA.

Jordan Hicks (SF) vs. COL
We always used solid pitchers when the Rockies are on the road. Colorado has the worst xwOBA in baseball this season but has been bottom three in runs scored and OPS on the road in three straight seasons. They rarely reach four runs in San Fran, which is scary with how good Hicks has looked this season. The hard-throwing righty has a 2.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, allowing three runs or fewer in all nine starts! He’s also got a 1.86 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at ORACLE Park, playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in baseball!

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Minnesota Twins (vs. Logan Allen)

• Road (Progressive Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIN -125

The Twins were terrible through the opening month of the year, but they’ve been different since then. Before getting swept by the Yankees this week, Minnesota won 17 of their previous 20 games. They were also Top 5 in nearly every offensive statistic in that span, making them a sensational stack against a gas can like Allen. The Guardians lefty has a 5.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this year.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Ross Stripling)

• Home (Kauffman Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/KC -190

The Royals have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranked 10th in runs scored. That’s not something we expected to see at the beginning of the season, but they should continue this hot start against the struggling Stripling. The Oakland starter is 1-7, no thanks to his 4.98 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• Witt has to be the first piece of our lineup if we stack the Royals. He’s been a Top 5 player in DFS over the last two years, collecting 35 homers and 64 steals since the start of last season. That has him averaging 11 DraftKings points per game, the sixth-highest total among all position players!
• Alonso has struggled this season, but this is a great spot to get right. He gets the platoon advantage against a subpar southpaw, with Braxton Garrett generating an 8.44 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. We’ve also see a bump from Big Pete, providing a .371 OBP and 1.028 OPS across his last eight outings. We love the BvP numbers for Alonso as well, accruing a .471 OBP and 1.271 OPS in 17 at-bats against Braxton.
• It’s scary what Shohei is doing this season. The slugger has 13 homers and nine steals, looking like a genuine triple-crown threat. Most of that damage has come against right-handers, registering a .476 OBP and 1.259 OPS against them. This is one we’re not scared of because Graham Ashcraft has an ugly 1.44 WHIP.
• Don’t look now, but Devers is starting to get hot. Since he sat out a week due to a shoulder issue, Devers has a .432 OBP and 1.029 OPS across his last 20 fixtures. That’s the stud we’ve seen for a few years now, with the third baseman posting a .987 OPS against righties this year. That’s rough for Miles Mikolas, who maintains a 6.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Castro has developed into an everyday player for the Twins and is one of the best players in this Minnesota stack. Over his last 26 games, Castro has collected a .377 OBP and .928 OPS. That doesn’t even consider his elite speed, swiping 39 steals since the start of last season. In addition, he’s got a .457 OBP and 1.094 OPS against lefties this season!
• Cronenworth has one of the best batting spots in baseball, hitting in between Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. That’s given this guy many good pitches to hit, accumulating a .367 OBP and .928 OPS against righties this year. This is a right-hander he can rock, with Bryce Elder establishing an ugly 4.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
• There aren’t many cheap Texas bats worth recommending, but Duran has been tearing the cover off the ball recently. The utilityman has moved to sixth in the Rangers lineup, amassing a .500 OBP and .923 OPS across his last eight outings. He’s also been killing lefties, totaling a .339 OBP and .834 OPS against them since the start of last year. That won’t sit well for Patrick Sandoval‘s 5.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
• Castellanos has finally started to get going. The former All-Star has a .348 OBP and .835 OPS across his last 10 games, which is right on par with his splits against lefties. Castellanos has collected a .868 OPS against left-handers throughout his career and should keep that going against MacKenzie Gore‘s unsightly 1.45 WHIP.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy & PrizePicks MLB Player Props

Luis Severino: 5.5 Hits Allowed – Lower

This line is too high. Not only is Miami one of the worst teams in baseball, but Severino is having a superb season. He hasn’t allowed more than five hits in seven straight starts since the opener, allowing just 23 total hits across 40 innings.

Pete Alonso: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (x1.25)

All we need is one extra-base hit to clear this prop, and it’s hard to believe it’s at a 1.25x multiplier with so much in Alonso’s favor.

Zac Gallen: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher

Gallen should cruise against one of the worst lineups in baseball. He’s recorded at least six Ks in eight of his last 10 starts dating back to last season and faces one of the most strikeout-heavy teams in baseball.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.