Welcome to Sleeper Picks. Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight’s NBA action. Sleeper is quickly becoming one of the most popular season-long fantasy platforms, and they are expanding into other areas based on demand. Each week in this space, we’ll talk about some strategy for the new platform while providing our favorite NBA more/less picks.
NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (5/3)
Donovan Mitchell (G – CLE): 5.5 1st quarter points
Mitchell has been a consistent tone-setter for the Cavaliers in this series, scoring eight or more first quarter points in three of five games. Mitchell was back to being aggressive in Game 5, which is encouraging, even if he only scored four first quarter points. He had five field goal attempts in that quarter, which, for someone with extended range, is more than enough for this total. This total was set at 6.5 or 7.5 all series, so take advantage of the reaction line while it’s available. Mash the More on Mitchell for Game 6.
Pick: More
Darius Garland (G – CLE): 9.5 points (alt line)
Garland finally stepped up in Game 5, and if Jarrett Allen indeed misses tonight’s contest due to a rib injury, expect Darius to have another high-volume night from the field. Garland has taken 11 or fewer shots in four of the five games in this series, which is nowhere close to enough for the actual total of 17.5 points. Yes, a Less play could be warranted based on this data but Garland could easily score 20 plus for the second straight night if he remains aggressive. With that in mind, alt lines are the play. We have a 14.5 option at a 1.40x multiplier, but Garland has scored 14 or fewer points in three of the five games of this series and 15 or fewer in four of five. With that ruled out, we move to the 1.04x multiplier 9.5 line, which is as tasty as they come, as scoring 10 or fewer points twice in four games is an extremely difficult feat for a scorer as talented as Garland, even if he was only pretending to be trying. Dap the More on Darius for Game 6.
Pick: More
Paolo Banchero (F – ORL): 3.5 assists (alt line)
Alt lines for the win. After an 0-3 outing yesterday, we are digging back into the alt line well for more high probability plays. Paolo is listed at 4.5 assists despite averaging just 4.4 in this series. In the five games of this series, he has dished out five assists three times, four assists one time, and three assists the other. Even if he has hit five or more in three of five, the fact that he narrowly hit the number in each means the value on the 4.5 is actually on the Less despite the trends. We can rectify this with the alt line, which, of course, drops our multiplier to 1.22x but boosts the probability on the More to a highly appealing level. Bump the More on Banchero for Game 6.
Pick: More
Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.