It’s sad to see, but for one reason or another, fantasy football players tend to hit a wall where production begins to decline. For some, this is more pronounced than others, like the star fantasy football running back, getting worn down, going into a committee, seeing a few carries and eventually retiring.
As we look ahead to 2024, we can see some of those next fantasy football players decline and underperform compared to what we would typically or historically expect. We’ll look at our average draft position (ADP) data to determine which fantasy football players we think won’t perform up to what the current draft data shows. Let’s check it out.
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Fantasy Football Players Trending Down
Here are four fantasy football players that are trending down as we approach the 2024 NFL season.
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)
Raheem Mostert had an obscene 2023 season. He scored 21 touchdowns, more than he scored in the rest of his career combined. Now, he’ll be 32 years old and has to contend for carries with De’Von Achane and the newly drafted Jaylen Wright.
Before the team took Wright, Mostert was arguably a potentially more valuable asset than Achane when you compare ADP. The addition of Wright signals a slowdown in usage for Mostert. He had 209 carries last season, the most in his career, and while he only had 674 attempts over his career, Mostert’s production will decline in 2024. He also has difficulty staying healthy, having never started more than 15 games in his career. Since 2020, he’s played in 40 games.
He’s currently the RB25 in PPR leagues. We don’t think he’ll meet that mark this season.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)
It’s been a long time since Deshaun Watson was a productive fantasy asset. After starting for the Browns in 12 games over the past two seasons, we don’t think he’ll ever return to form.
He was suspended to start the 2022 season and played in six games. Then, he threw for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns, five picks and completed just 58.2% of his passes. He started six games last season and got hurt. He completed 61.4% of his passes for 1,115 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
This was only slightly better.
Now, he’ll have more weapons with Jerry Jeudy coming over from the Broncos, but nothing has shown he’ll improve moving forward.
He’s going quite late in fantasy drafts (QB22), and rightfully so. His star-studded days are behind him. He’s on the decline from here as he gets closer to 30 and coming off of a fracture in his shoulder.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS)
Austin Ekeler signed a deal with the Commanders this offseason, but as he approaches 30 years old, we can’t help but wonder what kind of value he’ll add to the running game.
The Commanders lost some offensive linemen this offseason. While they added Brandon Coleman in the draft, there was a lot more work that needed to be done.
Ekeler is coming off a 2023 campaign in which he had 179 carries for 628 yards and five touchdowns. He also caught 51 passes for 436 yards and a score. This was all in 14 games after suffering an ankle injury last season.
His yards per attempt was by far the lowest of his career and his receptions were the lowest he recorded since 2018.
Brian Robinson Jr. will fight to get carries. While Ekeler could be used in the passing game as a trusted target for Jayden Daniels, there’s no denying his production is slipping. He’s also in a situation with a rookie quarterback behind a flimsy offensive line.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Cooper Kupp took the league by storm in 2021, catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, but it’s been tough sleddin’ since then.
Over the past two seasons, he’s played in just 21 games. He caught 75 passes in 2022 and 59 in 2023. He hasn’t cleared 812 yards in either season and has a combined 11 touchdowns.
Now, Kupp will be in his 30s. The emergence of Puka Nacua could limit his production even further.
Kupp has always had an injury history. He’s only played a full season twice. Since coming into the league in 2017, he’s played in 92 out of a possible 115 games.
He’s on the decline and is currently being drafted as the WR24.
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice
- Erickson’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Fitz’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Hoppen’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
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