Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Value-Based Drafting (2024)

We’re back with another installment for fantasy football draft strategy, this time focusing on value-based drafting. Let’s dive into fantasy football value-based drafting and how to use it to gain an edge in your fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy Football Value-Based Drafting Strategy

I am awful at remembering dates and have been this way for as long as I can remember. State capitals, music trivia and passages from ancient texts cut my brain’s storage space. Yet, dates have eluded me, like shifting sands amidst a desert storm. A few stick out, specifically birthdays for my immediate family, my wedding anniversary and the holidays I enjoy. However, one is set in stone that I can rattle off at a whim — my friends and family league draft date.

I have participated in this fantasy football league since 1999; it was my first proper taste of the hobby. The hobby quickly became a passion, eventually leading to a full-blown career in 2011 after I ditched the financial sector to make a name for myself. Comprised of colleagues from work, in-laws and friends I’ve made, it is undoubtedly my favorite thing to participate in each season. I take great pride in performing well and constructing a competitive team.

When I was initially explained the concept of fantasy football (specifically about ideal roster construction, how head-to-head battles work through points scored and positional priority depending on league type), I took an analytical approach to creating my first team. I created customized rankings based on positional scarcity and projected points. Little did I know that the method I used to approach the draft closely resembled value-based drafting (VBD).

What is Value-Based Drafting?

Unlike other draft strategies that hone in on a particular position and either value it (Robust RB) or ignore it in favor of others (Zero RB), VBD drafting takes a team-wide approach that assigns a value to every relevant player by comparing that player’s fantasy points to those of a baseline option at the same position. By drafting players expected to outperform baseline metrics, managers will have a well-rounded team loaded with upside.

Instead of focusing on the total projected points of a player (the default sorting metric in most software), managers are encouraged to select the player that offers the most incremental value above other rosters. The thinner (or more top-heavy) a position is, the more likely you’ll maintain a distinct advantage over other opponents by drafting a top-tier option.

How does one set that baseline and which factors are considered?

In case you don’t already have enough acronyms to remember, I’ll throw several more your way — VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), VONA (Value Over Next Available) and VOLS (Value Over Last Starter).

VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)

This represents how much better one player is than the best available running back on your league’s waiver wire or a replacement player-setting a value for these factors in league size, roster requirements and a pick prediction algorithm. VORP is then calculated to determine how valuable player X is to player Y.

VONA (Value Over Next Available)

This represents how much better one player is than the options available at that position when you select during the following round. To put this into practical terms, Christian McCaffrey is the current undisputed RB1 and top-ranked player in fantasy football this year. If one were to bypass McCaffrey and the running back position with the first pick in favor of another slot, what sort of drop-off would occur when your team was back on the clock in round two and then needed an RB? This “dynamic” and real-time calculation is complicated to calculate during drafts, but, thankfully, our algorithm makes the predictions for you. It also factors in players likely to still be on the board in the following rounds and adjusts on draft slots.

VOLA (Value Over Last Starter)

This represents the difference in fantasy points between a currently available player you can select versus the worst player available at the same position who will still be a starter for one of your opponents.

VBD Score (Value Based Drafting Score)

Akin to Captain Planet, when the VORP, VONA and VOLS powers combine, one creates the VBD Score, which allows managers to compare players conveniently.

For reference, FantasyPros’ 2024 Overall Projections has these figures available.

What Does the 2024 VBD Rankings Chart Tell Us?

As expected, VBD Rankings favor drafting running backs early due to the expected drop-off of projected points after the first two tiers have been selected. Obtaining one early and solidifying the position will give managers a clear-cut advantage over their competitors. Eight of the top 10 players ranked by VBD are running backs in half-PPR formats.

Wide receivers follow closely behind due to their ability to be featured as Flex options and the high number that can be started each week.

The VBD rankings devalue quarterbacks and tight ends since most leagues start just one of each position in standard formats. The drop-off from an elite player to a replacement-level option from the waiver wire isn’t as severe. The first quarterback in the 2024 VBD rankings didn’t occur until 26th overall. The first tight end fell to 28th.

Which Individual Players Benefit From VBD Drafting in 2024 Compared to Their ADP?

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Some of these players might not be the sexiest names to draft, but they will provide plenty of value compared to their peers within a similar territory due to expected touches. High-floor options are favored, along with bounce-back candidates and others coming off injuries.

Value-Based Drafting: In Conclusion

For those looking to test out the VBD strategy, I would preface things by stating that it isn’t realistic to go into a draft with the mindset of calculating VBD rankings on the fly after every pick. Calculating where players fall over the next options available or expected waiver-wire candidates is tricky. I’d urge folks to check out our Draft Wizard instead. Our software will calculate composite VBD scores based upon VORP/VONA/VOLS for you, making the draft enjoyable.

VBD will first favor drafting running backs and wide receivers before capitalizing on potential upside options at tight end and quarterback. It removes the potential to go overboard with breakout candidates and favors players with a history of producing.

Like any draft strategy, VBD is not perfect. It relies upon an accurate set of projections and baselines, often suggesting players counter to their average draft position (ADP). Consider it a valuable tool, rather than a be-all, end-all option for your draft preparation.

Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Christian McCaffrey Dak Prescott Jayden Daniels Deshaun Watson Saquon Barkley Derrick Henry Alvin Kamara Joe Mixon Isiah Pacheco James Conner Raheem Mostert Nick Chubb Nico Collins Mike Evans DJ Moore Tank Dell DK Metcalf Tee Higgins Marquise Brown Chris Godwin Tyler Lockett George Kittle David Njoku T.J. Hockenson Cole Kmet Tyler Conklin

Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Hunter Henry, Kyren Williams, Justin Jefferson (Week 3)

by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read

About Author

Evan Tarracciano

@Roto_Wizard

A Fantasy sports writing industry veteran for over a decade, Evan Tarracciano's passion and sports acumen have been featured on several websites, podcasts, and Sirius XM radio. The author and creator of the award-winning Waiver Wizard and Crystal Ball columns, Evan was nominated as the 2014 FSWA Newcomer of the Year in recognition of his talents and hasn't looked back since. His work is currently featured on FantasyPros, where he shares his Fantasy Football insight on various topics. Evan is also a contributing author to Joe Pisapia's "Fantasy Football Black Book". You can find him on Twitter/X (@Roto_Wizard)