Before the 2024 NFL Draft kicked off in the Motor City, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (2024 Fantasy Football) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.
The first-year talent that has entered the league the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Let’s look at fantasy football rookie running back values ahead of your fantasy football drafts.
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers
- Dynasty Draft Kit
- Dynasty Mock Draft Simulator
How to Value Fantasy Football Rookie Running Backs
Jonathon Brooks (CAR)
Only one RB was selected in the second round of this year’s draft. The Carolina Panthers traded up to the 46th overall pick to select Texas RB Jonathon Brooks. Coming off the torn ACL injury, Brooks’s availability for training camp has been reported to be positive.
Still, the Panthers can ride out veterans Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. Then, they could unleash Brooks as the season progresses. The former Longhorn profiles much more like a strong finisher than a strong starter for just the 2024 season. This needs to be considered in general roster construction, specifically in formats (such as Underdog’s Best Ball Mania V) that heavily favor the prize pools from Weeks 14 and onward.
Be wary that the list of rookie RBs entering the NFL that were immediately productive coming off season-ending injuries is thin. Todd Gurley is the lone success (he missed the first two games of his NFL career), followed by a long list of major RB disappointments.
Given Brooks’ top-50 draft capital, it’s still impossible not to label Brooks an NFL draft winner and bump up his value despite coming off a torn ACL. Even if it takes some time, I can only imagine Brooks’ dynasty value increasing as we inch closer to 2025. Imagine how high he would have been drafted if he wasn’t coming off a torn ACL.
Brooks’ best ball ADP opened as the RB31 on Underdog Best Ball. Given the average finish of a second-rounder (RB37), I like taking the shot on Brooks’ league-winning upside in the back half of the season. And I love the idea of pairing him with Chuba Hubbard (RB43) on the same roster in case he starts slow. I’d imagine under a brand new coaching staff with all new personnel, the Panthers offense will start sluggish.
Jaylen Wright (MIA)
Jaylen Wright is in a great position to succeed in Miami, even as a Round 4 pick. He’s a great scheme fit for what head coach Mike McDaniel covets: speed. He is also behind an aging Raheem Mostert and undersized De’Von Achane, both of whom suffered injuries last season. And although I initially downgraded Achane after the Dolphins traded up for Wright, I’ve backed off that stance. I recognize the upside Wright has should he see touches on offense. But for him to “dethrone” Mostert/Achane without an injury is far-fetched.
Similar to Lloyd, Wright could never fully take over a backfield at the college level. And if the Wright selection is indicative of anything, it’s more of a knock on Mostert/Jeff Wilson Jr. as the older veteran RBs.
Bucky Irving (TB)
The Buccaneers drafted an undersized, unathletic RB on Day 3 in Bucky Irving. Possibly, he eats into Rachaad White‘s target share. Irving is quicker than fast with a Devin Singletary comparison. Considering the Buccaneers could have drafted a big back to vulture goal-line TDs instead, I’d be satisfied with Irving as the RB2 behind White.
However, this needs to be addressed. Bucs Assistant GM John Spytek told reporters new Buccaneers OC Liam Coen was part of the decision to draft Irving.
This is noteworthy as Coen did not take his former RB – Ray Davis – in Round 4 (who went a few picks later to Buffalo), whom he coached at Kentucky in 2023. Instead, they stuck to their board and selected Irving. Perhaps not great for White’s three-down workload he benefitted from in 2023. Jason Licht and Todd Bowles have expressed their hope to lessen the load for White in 2024. Irving seems like part of this plan.
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