Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Erickson’s Top Targets (2024)

The 2024 NFL season is approaching, and that means it’s time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. What better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator? Beyond our tools, we’re also going to have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target. Sure, there could be “value” that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only target as values but also those you need to circle on your cheat sheets and prepare to reach for if needed especially in the early rounds, where everybody is good. It’s all about unearthing the best of the best.

Here are my top players to target in 2024 fantasy football drafts (available in the top 5 rounds per ADP). Be sure to pair this with my early-round draft strategy to DOMINATE your league this year.

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Andrew Erickson’s Top 12 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

But before we dive into my top fantasy football draft targets of the 2024 NFL season… let’s recap last year’s hits and misses from this same article. I listed 15 must-draft targets in 2023, and here’s how it shook out at each position. The paratheses note (W-L-T) at each position.

QBs: (1-2-1)

Lamar Jackson was my top QB in the elite tier and he did not disappoint. Second in points per game (22.6) in 2023. He led all QBs in rushing yards. And it hardly was an outlier season from a passing TD% of 5.3%. Same as in 2022. I see no reason to not go right back to him as the QB4 in ADP for the 2024 season. But for parody’s sake – also with the enticing crop of late-round QBs – he won’t make the official list this year, instead “settling” for honorable mention status.

I swung and missed Justin Herbert, buying into his low TD rate and connection with new OC, Kellen Moore. Note to self: Not all new OC hires are going to be positive. When you go from fired to hired there should be some hesitance. Current OCs that went from fired to hired this year include Alex Van Pelt (Patriots), Ken Dorsey (Browns), Arthur Smith (Steelers), Luke Getsy (Raiders) and Kellen Moore again (Eagles).

I liked Deshaun Watson as a late-round QB in 2023 but he got hurt. I like him for all the same reasons in 2024, albeit now he is even cheaper. That’s despite Watson hitting nearly 18 points per game in his five full starts while finishing as top-12 fantasy QB in three of his six games played. I also liked Geno Smith a lot, but he underwhelmed as a fantasy producer after losing Dave Canales to the Buccaneers. A reminder that coaching consistency is key.

RBs: 1-2-2

Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins both got hurt. Tony Pollard was allergic to the end zone. Rhamondre Stevenson played on the league’s worst offense. The lone hit was Rachaad White. It’s a reminder that RBs that carve out roles and earn touches while the starter is healthy, is a positive sign for their outlook. No. 2 RBs that “earned” playing time without an injury last season include De’Von Achane, Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary, Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, Roschon Johnson, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Allgeier, Zach Charbonnet, Chuba Hubbard, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle and D’Onta Foreman.

WRs: (1-2-1)

A mixed bag overall, but I hit on Amon-Ra St. Brown at the top. Calvin Ridley, Christian Watson and Diontae Johnson were underwhelming, to say the least, but injuries took a toll on the latter two.

TEs: (0-2)

Darren Waller and Gerald Everett. Waller was productive before his injury. Woof. Everett continues to tease me into oblivion.

Players to Target

Here are the fantasy football players I’m targeting at each position. The focus here is at the top of the draft board within the first 5 rounds of a traditional 12-team league.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

This is the cheapest it’s ever been to draft Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football since his first year as a starter back in 2018. Given that I am always looking for value when it comes to the QB position, the NFL’s best quarterback has become a top target of mine with him going at the end of the elite tier of fantasy QBs.

And it’s solely based on recency bias after he struggled to repeat his 2022 efforts without Tyreek Hill in the offense. But I’ll buy the dip in Round 4. Because 2023 is probably the worst we will see from him. Last year’s statistical output sticks out like a sore thumb compared to his previous seasons. It was the first time in his NFL career that Mahomes finished outside the top-7 QBs and the first time he has been below 20 points per game. Simply put, the Chiefs aren’t going to run back as weak an offensive WR unit in 2024. Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice (suspension pending) and Xavier Worthy are massive upgrades.

No doubt Mahomes will be firmly back in the QB1 overall discussion but at a fraction of the cost. Keep in mind that the Chiefs QB rushed for zero TDs this past season after having at least two in every other season he’s played. And what’s more curious is that it came on a career-high on rushing attempts (75).

Honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson

Running Backs

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

My No.1-ranked RB in fantasy football this season is Breece Hall. If I hold a mid-first-round pick, the Jets third-year RB will almost certainly be my selection.

Through 18 weeks of NFL action, Hall finished second among all RBs in yards from scrimmage, first in receptions (76), targets, receiving yards and seventh in points per game (14.9). Don’t forget that in his final game in Week 18 of the 2023 season, Hall totaled 39 touches for 190 yards and 1 TD to snap the Jets’ losing streak to the Patriots. Hall rushed for 178 rushing yards against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. Mic drop.

And all of his 2023 accolades came despite ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate (39.5%) on fewer than 300 touches (299, seventh). The situation was horrible, and Hall still found a way.

Keep in mind that in addition to quarterback Aaron Rodgers missing essentially the entire season, the offensive line sustained the second-most injuries. With Rodgers back under center and healthy/upgraded OL after the additions of Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson and Olu Fashanu, the sky’s the limit for Hall’s ceiling in 2024. A reminder that he will turn 23 years old at the end of May.

The reason I prefer Hall over the other top-3 RBs – Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey – comes down to projecting health. As previously stated, the Jets are massively overdue for better injury luck in 2024. Meanwhile, the other top RBs may not be so fortunate.

The Falcons were the healthiest offense last season. Neither of their RBs missed time with injuries (Bijan’s headache game withstanding).

The 49ers were the fourth-healthiest team in 2023 – second overall on offense behind only Atlanta. For the first time in 10 seasons, they ranked above 20th in adjusted games lost – a metric to quantify losses felt by NFL injuries in a similar way to DVOA by FTN’s Aaron Schatz. McCaffrey is also coming off leading the NFL in touches. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

If I am picking at the end of Round 1 or the start of Round 2, Jahmyr Gibbs is at the top of my target list as my clear-cut RB4 in my 2024 fantasy football running back rankings. Now there’s a bit of leap faith here with Gibbs given that he’s not the only serviceable running back on the Lions depth chart. But that’s the only part of his 2024 projection holding him back.

Peeking back at what I wrote about Gibbs right after his rookie season concluded, I am super excited for what the future holds.

From Week 10 onward, the Gibbs-David Montgomery tandem split touches and snaps nearly 50/50. Gibbs averaged a 53% snap share to Monty’s 45%. Gibbs averaged 14.2 touches per game to Montgomery’s 15 touches per game. However, from a production standpoint, it was no contest. Gibbs averaged 15.1 points per game over his past 12 games to Monty’s 12.9. In addition to total snaps/touches being divided, the usage inside the 5-yard line was also distributed evenly. From inside the 5-yard line, Montgomery at 11 carries and 5 TDs versus Gibb’s 10 carries and 5 TDs.

Considering Gibbs was already averaging nearly 15 points per game during his entire rookie season – placing him just outside the top-5 RBs – it foreshadows a big Year 2 if he can carve out an even larger role in the offense. Any discount you can get for Gibbs because of his perceived “lack of backfield dominance” or “red-zone role” you take to the bank.

The fact that he is involved so heavily in the passing game (10th in route participation, sixth in RB targets/game) makes him game-script proof in case the Lions’ defense regresses as an overall team in 2024. Detroit’s offense is slated to be in shootout after shootout given, as they play just three games outside all season.

That makes Gibbs one of the safest RBs you can draft in 2024, and one of my favorite RB targets in the late first/early second, especially in PPR. Chase the pass-catching upside with a super-talented former first-round pick. Only 4 RBs are projected for more catches – Alvin Kamara, Breece Hall, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson – than Gibbs in 2024.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)

If you read any of my content last season, you knew I was high on Travis Etienne Jr. Despite all the hype for rookie third-rounder, Tank Bigsby, I believed in ETN’s talent, and he delivered. RB3 overall, RB6 points per game.

But we are aware that Etienne’s success was extremely front-loaded. Etienne’s strong start fizzled out as the season progressed, with the entire Jaguars offense regressing after their Week 9 bye week. This coincided with a lot of injuries across the Jaguars’ OL, Christian Kirk missed the last six games, Trevor Lawrence had multiple injuries and the team faced a much tougher slate of opponents.

Etienne was the RB3 overall and in points per game (18.8) through the first eight games of the season. 81% snap rate (3rd) and 54% route participation (seventh). After Week 9, the Jags RB was RB16 averaging 11.4 points per game. Snap rate fell to 67% as did his route participation (47%).

The Jaguars’ 2023 second-half collapse has influenced Etienne’s 2024 ADP along with more coach speak about now second-year RB Tank Bigby taking on a bigger role. The former Auburn Tiger believes it’s his time.

I am all for a second-year player finding success in the NFL after a bad first season. But there’s nothing about what Bigsby did as a rookie that should inject fear into those looking to invest in Etienne. Doug Pederson first mentioned Bigsby as an outlet to keep Etienne fresh first and foremost. So what if he takes a few meaningless snaps/carries in between the 20s on early downs? Be my guest, Tank.

I’ll draft Etienne for the second straight year in Round 3 (his ADP is nearly identical to last year), just to see him smash into the stratosphere when Jacksonville delivers on 2023’s lofty pre-season expectations.

Joe Mixon (RB – HOU)

I love Joe Mixon’s landing spot with the Texans. Houston checks off all the boxes for the ex-Bengals RB to be a full-blown bell cow, despite what his detractors will say about his lack of efficiency. The dude scores fantasy points because he scores TDs and catches passes. He’s also light years ahead of Dameon Pierce, who seems to have completely fallen out of favor with the current regime/coaching scheme. And all the Texans did in the draft was select Jawhar Jordan in Round 6.

However, I do fully recognize Mixon’s role is the appealing part of him in Houston, which can sometimes end in disaster when drafting fantasy running backs. If his ADP gets too high, I will be out. I like him here in Round 5.

However, Mixon did sign a three-year, $27-million contract extension that includes $13 million guaranteed after being traded for next to nothing. This suggests the team is very high on him as their featured RB. Given his best ball ADP as the RB15, I am extremely bullish on drafting Mixon, who I have ranked as my RB9. Mixon was RB12 in points per game and RB5 overall through 18 weeks in 2023. He played all 17 games and finished eighth in RB snap rate (69%). The former Sooner also ended the year fourth in red zone carries. Mixon joins Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey as just one of three RBs to finish as a top-36 RB in every single game played in 2023. He will turn 28 in July.

Check out the full breakdown of Mixon’s new landing spot here.

Honorable Mentions: Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

I outlined in detail my approach to Round 1 with an early pick inside the top-4 in my article titled “Fantasy Football Strategy & Advice: Early Snake Draft Picks (2024)“. Most notably, I waxed poetically about Ja’Marr Chase and his potential to be the No. 1 WR overall in fantasy football this season.

Last year, Chase finished with 100 receptions, which was a career-high on 145 targets. Chase owned a 26% target share, amassing over 1,200 yards. He scored seven touchdowns while ranking top-10 in red zone targets. The Bengals offense ranked third in pass rate over expectation in the red zone. Over 16 games, Chase averaged 13.3 points per game as the WR13. But Chase left production on the table without his healthy star QB Joe Burrow.

From Weeks 1-10 with Joe Burrow, Chase averaged 16.2 points per game as the WR6 and scored 19.6 expected points per game which ranked 5th. During his last seven games played with Burrow in 2023 (when Burrow was mostly healthy), Chase was on pace for 143 catches, 1,824 yards and 12 TDs. 19.1 fantasy points per game average output which would have ranked 3^rd in 2023 behind only Hill/Lamb.

Chase has a strong chance to lead the NFL in red zone targets in 2024. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets per game over the past two seasons. In his past 23 games played with Burrow, Chase has averaged nearly two red-zone targets per game with 43 total. His red-zone target rate is equivalent to the red-zone rate CeeDee Lamb saw this past season. Red-zone targets are the path of least to resistance to WR1 overall fantasy seasons.

The past five No. 1 overall WRs finished first in the NFL in red-zone targets. Chase can do that. Draft Chase as the No. 1 WR in fantasy football.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

Brandon Aiyuk operated as the more traditional WR1 in the 49ers offense in 2023, leading the team with nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 8 TDs in 19 games played despite a mediocre role in the red zone. He commanded only 9 red-zone targets with McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel leading their respective positions in red-zone touches.

Even so, Aiyuk led the 49ers offense with a 24% target share and 39% air yards share (15th). He finished 20th overall in weighted opportunity. Aiyuk averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game as the WR19 finishing with career highs across the board in his fourth season.

Entering a contract year at age 26, we still may not have seen the best to come from Aiyuk fresh off a second consecutive top-15 WR finish in half-PPR. His efficiency numbers are off the charts as a top-5 finisher in yards per route run in 2023. And he was low-key super consistent, despite all the mouths to feed in the 49ers offense. 67% top-24 finisher rate ranked 4th among all WRs behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. He finished seventh in receiving yards and ninth in receiving yards per game (84), the same as A.J. Brown. He also finished 4^thwith 7 games with 100-plus receiving yards. There’s additional room for upside should the team move on from Deebo Samuel who has been rumored to be on the trade block.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

Michael Pittman Jr. proved his alpha status all year long in the Colts offense with 109 receptions (seventh) on 156 targets, accumulating over 1,100 yards. But like his teammate Josh Downs, he fell victim to poor TD luck with just four scores. Despite the lack of TDs, in 16 games, he racked up nearly 200 fantasy points (WR15 overall), which averages out to 12.2 points per game (WR19). Pittman commanded nearly 1300 air yards (33% air yards share), with a 30% target share to boot – fourth-highest among all WRs. Pittman comes with a super-high floor that could be further unlocked with better TD variance in 2024 should Anthony Richardson take this offense a step further in Year 2.

Pittman Jr. had the red-zone targets (finished inside the top-10 and twice the amount of any other Colts WR), but the opportunities were not realized. Case in point, Pittman Jr.’s top-24 rate ranked ninth among WRs last season, but he only had two top-12 finishes based on the lack of TDs. He also had only one “bust” game. The addition of second-rounder, Adonai Mitchell, in the draft could enhance the overall offensive output without significantly impacting Pittman’s high-end target share. Note that the Colts WRs in the Shane Steichen offense rarely ever leave the field. Pittman finished 3rd in WR snaps (92%) trailing only DeVonta Smith (96%) and teammate Alec Pierce (95%).

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

Tyreek Hill will be at the top of nearly every single 2024 fantasy football draft, whereas Jaylen Waddle will be drafted much later after his worst professional season to date. WR34 overall and WR24 in points per game. But the Miami speedster still managed over 1,000 receiving yards in just 14 games given his top-10 touch per snap rate. The issue was he scored just four times. But his 24% target share was still excellent. He also posted his highest yards per route run (6th) and PFF receiving grade of his career (fith). Simply put, no offense puts their players in a better situation on a per-play basis than Miami – at least when the weather permits. Expect this offense to cook with matchups against the Jaguars, Bills, Seahawks and Titans to kick off the season. Three of those matchups are home games before they go on bye in Week 6. All in all, Miami’s schedule through 12 weeks per Sharp Football is the second easiest in the NFL.

Waddle is a sharp buy-low candidate in a high-powered Dolphins offense. Three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with two top-13 WR finishes on his resume.

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

George Pickens is one of my favorite breakout WRs to draft in 2024, given he greatly benefits as the newly entrenched WR1 in the Steelers’ offense after the Diontae Johnson trade.

During the first five weeks of the 2023 season with Johnson sidelined, Pickens was the WR13 in fantasy, averaging 12.8 points per game (19th). He recorded a 43% air yards share and a 24% target share during that span. He also averaged nearly 80 receiving yards per game.

Yes, Pittsburgh drafted Roman Wilson in Round 3, but Pickens’ constant ascension the past two seasons with flashes of top-12 (three top-6 finishes last year) upside suggests he is on the cusp of a true third-year breakout that we see annually for WRs selected in the middle rounds.

In four games with Mason Rudolph, Pickens averaged a 24% target share, 44% air yards share, 14.6 fantasy points (backend fantasy WR1 numbers) and nearly 100 receiving yards per game.

On the year, Pickens hauled in 63 receptions from 106 targets, accumulating 1,140 yards, which translated to a remarkable 18.1 yards per reception Weeks 1-18. Pickens closed out the season with 177.3 fantasy points, which gave him an impressive average of 10.3 points per game, ranking him 33rd among wide receivers in points per game. He finished with a 24% target share (6.5 targets per game) and 41% air yards share (13th in total air yards).

Both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields offer much more upside than Kenny Pickett, given they are threats to attack downfield (both ranked inside top-8 in deep ball rate in 2023).

The run-heavy nature of an Arthur Smith offense is the only scenario that could doom Pickens’ breakout, but it’s baked into his price as the WR30 in ADP at the end of Round 5. And we saw in Atlanta’s offense under Smith No.1 WR Drake London, command an extremely high target share.

Unlike London, Pickens’ price has been held in check, dramatically increasing his odds of a true third-year breakout. Again he was WR33 this past year in points per game and WR23 overall in half-point scoring.

Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)

Amari Cooper’s season-long statistics were impressive despite playing with 4 different QBs. The Browns WR finished 10th in yards (1,250) and tied for second behind only Tyreek Hill in 20-yard gains (42). He posted the 10th-highest air yards share at 41%. 17th in points per game as the WR18 overall through 17 games. And who could forget his EXPLOSION in the fantasy football playoffs with a 51-point burger on the Houston Texans. The guy single-handedly won a playoff week.

As we project Cooper ahead to 2024, we can analyze the five-game splits with Deshaun Watson as his QB. Although it wasn’t all that different from his season-long numbers. 23% target share and 42% air yards share were in-line with his overall season-long stats. He averaged less than 100 receiving yards per game. 14.8 fantasy points per game (sith) and 15.7 expected fantasy points per game (15th). Even with Jerry Jeudy‘s addition and David Njoku‘s last season breakout, Cooper should remain the WR1 for the Browns.

But be aware that Cooper’s not without his warts. He is the king of boom-or-bust given his 40% bust rate and top-8 boom rate in 2023. But we are in the business of acquiring WRs with week-winning potential. Cooper is and can still be that guy as he turns 30 in June.

Honorable Mentions: A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Nico Collins, DK Metcalf

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

Before Mark Andrews’ injury in Week 11, he was the TE3 overall averaging 12.2 points per game – a mark that would rank first among all TEs in 2023. He was out-producing Sam LaPorta. Andrews commanded a 23% target share – nearly identical to Zay Flowers. But Andrews still doubled Flowers in terms of red-zone usage and out-scored the rookie WR 6 to 1. The Ravens’ tight end is now the TE4 in ADP even though he is 100% healthy after suffering a gruesome cracked fibula and an ankle ligament injury.

And he has been the closest thing to Travis Kelce in terms of consistency atop the tight end rankings. Per FantasyPros Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrews’ yearly finishes in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) since his second-year breakout in 2019: TE4, TE4, TE1, TE3, TE4.

Andrew’s TE1 season in 2021 (17.7 PPR points per game) is the closest we have seen a tight end produce in a fashion close to peak, unstoppable Kelce. It was three points per game more than any other tight end this past season. The soon-to-be 29-year-old tight end is being drafted at his stone-cold floor after he was unable to finish the 2023, where he could have easily been the TE1 overall. Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. Draft guys with great names like Andrews. Studs.

Honorable Mentions: Dalton Kincaid

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